US stalls as Pakistan drifts
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
ISLAMABAD - Three developments over the past few days have dealt a severe
setback to the designs of the United States in the South Asian theater of war.
Firstly, Taliban leader Mullah Omar last week rejected any possibility of talks
with Afghan President Hamid Karzai or the United States, indicating that the
only way towards peace was for foreign troops to leave Afghanistan.
Then, as war rages against Muslim militants in Pakistan's tribal areas, the
chief of army staff, General Ashfaq Parvez Kiani,
shocked secular elements in the country by saying that "no one can separate
Islam and Pakistan" and that the goal was to turn the country into a true
Islamic state.
And thirdly, as Asia Times Online predicted, President Asif Ali Zardari issued
an amended ordinance at the weekend in which he abdicated as chairman of the
Nuclear Command Authority and transferred command of the country's nuclear
arsenal to Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gillani. (See
Pakistan's military stays a march ahead November 25, 2009)
Mullah Omar's statement is likely to derail any attempts at negotiations in
Afghanistan, even at the level of junior Taliban commanders. Kiani's statement,
meanwhile, can be expected to demoralize secular forces such as the Pashtun
sub-nationalist Awami National Party in North-West Frontier Province.
The message is that their role is limited and no matter the hostilities between
the Pakistani military and Muslim militants, secular forces will never be
allowed to influence broader strategic matters; that is, only Islamic ideology
and its flag bearers can have control.
Zardari's handing over of power over the nuclear arsenal is the beginning of
the collapse of the Western-hatched secular and liberal coalition in Islamabad.
With the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) having expired on November 28,
analysts believe that early next month many politicians could find themselves
in court. The NRO, issued on October 5, 2007, granted amnesty to politicians,
political workers and bureaucrats who were accused of corruption, embezzlement,
money-laundering, murder and terrorism between January 1, 1986, and October 12,
1999. Some of the main beneficiaries were Zardari and several present cabinet
members.
Those most affected will be politicians from the ruling Pakistan People's Party
(PPP) (corruption cases) and its ally, the Muttehida Quami Movement (criminal
cases). In this situation, opposition parties like the Pakistan Muslim
League-Nawaz (PML-N) will mount additional pressure on the ruling coalition to
resign and call mid-term elections.
The PML-N, the second-largest political party in parliament and led by former
premier Nawaz Sharif, and all other opposition parties have unanimously
demanded the resignation of Zardari and cabinet members who are alleged to have
taken advantage of the NRO.
Zardari has resisted the demands. His approach appears to be an attempt to heal
his rift with the military and regain its backing. His move over the nuclear
weapons can be viewed in this light - the military is known to have been uneasy
with Zardari's control of the arsenal as it believes he is too close to the US.
At the same time, Zardari is preparing to take on the opposition by curtailing
sections of the media critical of him.
Last week, Zardari delivered a speech on the occasion of the PPP's 42nd
anniversary. For security reasons, the speech was delivered from the
president's residence in the capital, Islamabad, and telecast directly to a
stadium in the southern port city of Karachi.
Other speakers at the gathering criticized a television talk show host, Dr
Shahid Masood, whom they accused of trying to destabilize the rule of the PPP.
Masood, executive director of Geo TV and a campaigner against the NRO, had
announced that after a message from the Pakistani government, the United Arab
Emirates (UAE) government had banned the broadcast of his show from its Dubai
studio. Masood also said he had received threats that if he ever dared to
telecast his show from Pakistan, his life would be endangered.
"I told the prime minister [Gillani] when I was visiting Islamabad, that your
boss [Zardari] has directly given me threats," Masood told Asia Times Online by
telephone from the UAE.
Masood has been a household name for Pakistani television viewers for the past
nine years. Politically, he was close to the PPP from his days as a medical
student, and after joining the electronic media he was considered very close to
slain Benazir Bhutto, Zardari's wife and former leader of the PPP.
But after Zardari's PPP won elections and he was made president in September
2008, Masood fell out with the PPP and joined hands with the civil society
movement that was calling for the restoration of the judiciary that had been
sacked by former military ruler General Pervez Musharraf. He subsequently took
a stance against the NRO.
Masood's conversation with Gillani was strictly private and cannot be made
public, but it is well known that there is a cold war between the prime
minister and Zardari. Gillani has on several occasions called on the president
to resign.
Zardari appears to believe in the saying, "Better the devil you know than the
devil you don't"; besides, sacking the prime minister or forcing his
resignation would expose differences within the PPP and open the doors of
internal dissension.
Zardari, widely known as "Mr 10%", also has his hands full in fending off
criticism. He was the center of so much ridicule through a text message
campaign that in July Interior Minister Rehman Malik announced that the Federal
Investigation Agency had been tasked to trace text messages and e-mails that
"slander the political leadership of the country", under the vague Cyber Crimes
Act. In response, people simply started using code words for the president and
some television stations produced new satires about Zardari.
Apart from occasional excursions, Zardari has fortified himself in the
presidential palace, and he even reportedly berated PPP leaders when they
advised him to visit the military's General Headquarters Rawalpindi after
militants attacked the building on October 10.
Zardari has delegated many of his duties to his sister, Faryal Talpur, or to
associates from his days in jail from the mid-1990s to 2004 on various
corruption charges. These include Dr Abdul Qayyum Soomro. his physician while
he was imprisoned; Senator Syed Faisal Raza Abedi, a fellow inmate turned
politician; Senator Islamuddin Sheikh, a former leader of the Pakistan Muslim
League linked to corruption charges; and Salman Farooqui, who was a co-accused
of Zardari and who is now his principal secretary.
The US will be closely following Zardari's difficulties, as his political
demise will end its attempt to put a friendly face on the "war on terror" which
Pakistan is waging on Washington's behalf.
In turn, this would have a direct impact on how vigorously the Pakistani
military continued its war on militants in the tribal areas, as well as the
fortunes of the Taliban-led insurgency across the border in Afghanistan.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can
be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
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