ISLAMABAD - At a time when Islamabad is trying to implement a United
States-sponsored initiative for a spirit of dialogue between Pakistan and
India, an Indian general has stirred up a hornet's nest, eliciting a
belligerent response from across the border.
Indian General Deepak Kapoor, according to media reports, last week said in a
closed-door seminar that his country could take on Pakistan and China
simultaneously and "bring it to a satisfactory conclusion in 96 hours", and
even suggested that a "limited war under a nuclear overhang" was possible in
South Asia.
Pakistan, tightly allied with the United States-led "war on terror" and tied
down with its commitment to Washington to focus on its
western border with Afghanistan rather than on India, chose not to officially
respond to the Indian general's remarks.
However, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, General Tariq
Majeed, who by virtue of his designation becomes the operational head of all
Pakistan's armed forces in the event of war, spoke out.
"Leave alone China, General Deepak Kapoor knows very well what the Indian armed
forces cannot do and what the Pakistani armed forces can pull off militarily
... I have doubts that he can be so outlandish in strategic postulations as to
put India on a self-destructive path," said Kapoor, known for his anti-American
attitude. If the report were correct, he said, the uncalled-for rhetoric only
depicted a lack of strategic acumen.
Kapoor identified five thrust areas that would drive a new Indian doctrine.
While the armed forces prepare for their primary task of conventional wars,
they must also factor in the eventuality of "a two-front war" breaking out. In
tune with this, after acquiring a greater offensive punch along the entire
western front with Pakistan by the creation of a new South-Western Army Command
in 2005, India was now taking steps - albeit belatedly - to strategically
counter the stark military asymmetry with China in the eastern sector. There is
now "a proportionate focus towards the western and northeastern fronts".
The armed forces need to "optimize" their capability to effectively counter
"both the military and non-military facets" of asymmetric and sub-conventional
threats like weapons of mass destruction, terrorism, cyber warfare, electronic
warfare and information warfare.
The armed forces have to substantially enhance their strategic reach and
out-of-area capabilities to protect India's geopolitical interests stretching
from the Persian Gulf to the Malacca Strait. "This would enable us to protect
our island territories; and also give assistance to the littoral states in the
Indian Ocean region."
Interdependence and operational synergy between the army, navy and air force
must become the essence of strategic planning and execution in future wars.
"For this, joint operations, strategic and space-based capability, ballistic
missile defense and amphibious, airborne and air-land operations must be
addressed comprehensively."
India must strive to achieve a technological edge over its adversaries.
"Harnessing and exploitation of technology also includes integration of network
centricity, decision-support systems, information warfare and electronic
warfare into our operational plans."
Pakistan's Majeed, a four-star general, was in mid-2008 twice offered the
position of chief of army staff by former president Pervez Musharraf when
Musharraf turned against the incumbent army chief, General Ashfaq Parvez Kiani.
Each time, Majeed refused, as he prefers to stay in the background, although he
has emerged as a leader on several issues.
The bulk of the Pakistan army was against Asif Ali Zardari when he announced
his decision to run for president, a position he assumed on September 9, 2008.
Majeed, however, rallied the top brass, urging that the democratic process
should be given a chance and that if the political forces wanted Zardari, their
decision should be respected.
Naturally, Zardari was thankful and offered to elevate Majeed, including to a
position with complete command and control over all of the branches of the
armed services. Majeed declined but continued to exert what influence he had.
From mid-2009, he was at the forefront of the initiative to start a dialogue
process with the Taliban, an issue he discussed with senior visiting US
military officials. This raised the ire of some sections of Pakistan's
strategic quarters which were closely allied with the American war in
Afghanistan. Some officers even boycotted Majeed's meeting with his American
counterpart, Admiral Mike Mullen, in violation of all protocols.
However, Majeed continued to air his views, which emphasize dialogue with
militants. He believes that the American war machine has been badly sucked into
Afghanistan and that Pakistan should distance itself from being pulled into
that quagmire.
Gradually, Majeed's arguments have taken hold and in the past few weeks there
have been some developments concerning Pakistan's dealings with the US.
A stringent mechanism has been adopted in issuing visas to Americans, which has
restricted American defense contractors in Pakistan. Their growing presence in
the country has for some time been a bone of contention. US diplomats, too,
have been under pressure, such as being forced to use regular immigration
counters at airports.
This does not mean that Pakistan overnight has become anti-American, or that
its cooperation with the US will suddenly cease. These are critical times,
though, for both the US and Pakistan, the former embroiled in Afghanistan, the
latter struggling with spreading militancy, and what are now just trends could
evolve into something bigger.
Three important appointments in Pakistan this year could have an influence on
such trends, including Majeed's sentiments.
The director general of the Inter-Services Intelligence, Lieutenant General
Shuja Pasha, is due to retire in March. The government has so far not shown any
interest in extending his tenure. Army chief Kiani is due to step down in
November. Washington is keen to see his term extended, as he dovetails
perfectly with American policies on the region. Majeed, too, is slated to
retire in October, which leaves him a matter of months to push his views.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can
be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
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