Pakistan's military makes a stand
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
ISLAMABAD - After several months of backroom wheeling and dealing between the
United States and the top brass in the Pakistani garrison city of Rawalpindi,
Washington has expressed its full trust in Pakistan's military leadership and
its apparatus, including the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), which in turn
is preparing to fight the next phase in the South Asia war theater.
This will focus on the hunt for high-profile al-Qaeda targets in the Shawal and
Datta Khel areas of Pakistan's North Waziristan tribal area, where it is
believed Osama bin Laden's deputy, Dr Ayman
Al-Zawahiri, and the shura (council) of al-Qaeda are hiding. Over the
past few weeks, the US has stepped up drone attacks in the region.
United States Senator Joe Lieberman, who recently visited Pakistan, confirmed
on Sunday that the Pakistani army "is on the move" and that there is the
"possibility the US will see activity in that volatile northern region [North
Waziristan]". Lieberman met with Pakistan's military chief, General Ashfaq
Parvez Kiani.
In the latest drone attack early on Thursday morning, two missile strikes were
reported to have killed 10 suspected militants in a compound in the Pasalkot
area of North Waziristan. Several days ago, the US said it had killed 12 people
at a suspected Taliban training center about 30 kilometers west of Miranshah,
the main town in North Waziristan.
In the latter stages of last year, the Pakistan military waged a months-long
offensive in South Waziristan against the Pakistani Taliban, with some success.
The operation in North Waziristan, however, will concentrate solely on al-Qaeda
and its affiliates.
This understanding was reached after some tricky negotiations. The US initially
wanted a broader Pakistani campaign, even suggesting that if Pakistan did not
cooperate, it would send in its own special forces for ground assaults and
mount daily drone strikes inside North Waziristan.
Pakistan argued that its military was stretched as its forces were already
committed in Swat, South Waziristan and the agencies of Mohmand, Bajaur and
Khyber.
A senior Pakistani security official told Asia Times Online on the condition of
anonymity that Pakistan was also reluctant to undertake a full operation in
North Waziristan because that region was not a main sanctuary for the Taliban,
as is South Waziristan. The official said that the Americans were therefore
told that Pakistan's participation would be limited to the elimination of
al-Qaeda and its affiliate groups. At the same time, he hinted at a possible
role for Pakistan in facilitating negotiations with the Afghan Taliban.
The recent deadly suicide attack on a US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) base
in Khost province in Afghanistan was plotted by al-Qaeda in North Waziristan.
(See US spies
walked into al-Qaeda's trap Asia Times Online, January 5, 2009.)
The dispute over the level of Pakistan's involvement caused bad blood on both
sides. At one point, the Pakistani military establishment clamped down on the
many American defense contractors in the country, and even American diplomats
were forced to tangle with red tape, so much so that the US ambassador, Anne W
Patterson, made a public protest.
Nonetheless, this proved to be just another episode in the love-hate
relationship between the two allies who both desperately need one another. As a
result, communication began at new levels. Sources privy to the military
establishment say that a major turnaround was the visit late last year of US
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to Islamabad.
Washington conceded that the government of President Asif Ali Zardari had a
"credibility deficit" and the only option was to rely on the Pakistan army. The
visit of Admiral Mike Mullen, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, in the
second week of December was also a milestone. He returned to Washington and
lobbied in favor of the US dealing directly with Kiani.
There followed a string of visits by American military officials and senators,
including that of Lieberman, who confirmed that the Pakistan army was the only
hope in tackling the troubles in South Asia.
One of the consequences of this is that Washington has informed Islamabad that
the term of the director general of the ISI, Lieutenant General Ahmad Shuja
Pasha, should be extended. He is due to retire in March. A few months later,
Kiani is due to step down, and if Pasha is not reappointed, Pasha will be the
next chief of army staff by virtue of his seniority.
Understandably, Zardari's government initially reacted badly to being snubbed -
and dictated to - by the US. A senior member of the ruling Pakistan People's
Party (PPP), barrister Kamal Azfar, said in a statement that both the CIA and
the Pakistani military headquarters aimed to derail democracy in the country.
Then throughout the month of December, Zardari and cabinet members spoke out
against the military establishment.
The military hit back, and under its pressure Zardari surprised everybody by
giving up the chairmanship of the National Command Authority, which controls
the country's nuclear weapons. It is now firmly under the military's wing.
On December 29, on the second anniversary of the assassination of his wife,
Benazir Bhutto, Zardari delivered an inflammatory speech against the military,
taking aback even members of his PPP.
Frantic meetings followed between Zardari and go-betweens for the military,
resulting eventually in an understanding that the president would take briefs
from the army chief on all issues and then speak accordingly.
The military has effectively put Zardari in his place, just as it has got its
way with the US over North Waziristan: Washington and the Pakistani civilian
government have no option but to follow the game accordingly.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can
be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
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