Al-Qaeda's shadow over Taliban talks
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
ISLAMABAD - With an international conference starting in London on Thursday
expected to lay down a framework for the Afghan government to begin taking
charge of its own security, in line with a timetable set by United States
President Barack Obama to start drawing down US troops in 2011, efforts for
reconciliation with the Taliban are also being stepped up.
However, sources directly involved in backchannel negotiations with the Taliban
tell Asia Times Online they are skeptical of the Taliban being reconciled as
the militants scent victory in
Afghanistan and hence are not prepared to show any flexibility in their
demands, the key one of which is that all foreign troops leave Afghanistan.
At the conference in London, Afghan President Hamid Karzai will unveil a
British- and United States-backed plan for "reintegration" of segments of the
Taliban. He is also expected to seek international funding to offer jobs and
inducements to bring insurgents into the mainstream political process - the
amount of US$1 billion has been mentioned. To this end, parliamentary elections
in Afghanistan have been postponed from May to September, although ostensibly
because the Independent Election Commission said it needed more funds.
Karzai is also pushing for Taliban names to be removed from a United Nations
blacklist that imposes travel restrictions and asset freezes. "[They should be]
welcome to come back to their country, lay down arms and resume life as
citizens of Afghanistan, enjoying the privileges and the rights and the
guarantees given by the Afghan constitution," Karzai said.
He is also reported as saying that his Western allies fully back his plans for
reconciliation with the Taliban - provided they are not "key members" of the
movement, that they are not allied with al-Qaeda and that they renounce
violence.
"The red line is links to al-Qaeda," British Foreign Secretary David Miliband
was quoted in the media this week as saying.
Herein lies the rub.
A December briefing prepared by the top US intelligence official in
Afghanistan, Major General Michael Flynn, concludes that "the Taliban
insurgency in Afghanistan is increasingly effective". With regard to al-Qaeda,
the 23-page briefing quotes Taliban detainees as saying that the Taliban see
al-Qaeda as a "handicap"; however, it adds that al-Qaeda "provides
facilitation, training and some funding" to the Taliban and predicts that
"perceived insurgent success will draw foreign fighters" into Afghanistan.
A former Arab mujahid who fought in Afghanistan and who claims to have been in
direct communication with senior al-Qaeda leaders, including Osama bin Laden,
has told Asia Times Online that the relationship between al-Qaeda and the
Taliban is much deeper.
He said that following the leaking last year of a report by the US's top
commander in Afghanistan, General Stanley McChrystal, that tens of thousands
more US troops would be sent into Afghanistan, bin Laden met with Taliban
leader Mullah Omar in the Afghan province of Helmand in October - apparently
their first meeting in a long time.
According to the Arab fighter, the meeting marked a watershed in relations
between the Taliban and al-Qaeda as the leaders agreed on closer relations and
better coordination in the war against the Western coalition in Afghanistan.
Further, they agreed that any invitation for dialogue was a ploy to lure the
Taliban into a trap.
While there was apparently some disagreement on the issue of carrying out
attacks in Pakistan, the leaders agreed on a joint macro strategy until the
"complete defeat" of the foreign forces in Afghanistan. Mullah Omar, the
fighter claims, was particularly impressed that bin Laden made the risky
journey over the Hindu Kush mountains into southwestern Afghanistan.
Preparing to talk
The Pakistan military is at the forefront of efforts to set up talks with the
Taliban, and Peshawar, capital of North-West Frontier Province, Quetta, capital
of Balochistan province, and the national capital, Islamabad, have been
scheduled as venues.
A next level of dialogue could then take place in the United Arab Emirates,
where a former UAE ambassador is attempting to get Taliban representatives to
meet with US, British and Saudi Arabian officials.
The Muslim Brotherhood is also expected to be involved in getting people to the
dialogue table, as are various individuals. These include Arabs who fought in
Afghanistan against the Soviets in the 1980s. One of them is Iraqi Mehmood
al-Samarrai, alias Abul Judh, who was previously wanted by the US Federal
Bureau of Investigation for supporting the insurgencies in Iraq and
Afghanistan. He currently lives in Pakistan and is working to get some Taliban
commanders to talk to Saudi officials.
However, a senior Arab diplomat who has been directly involved in some
backchannel negotiations with the Taliban told Asia Times Online that one of
the problems any talks faced was that neither side had changed its basic
position: the Taliban want an unconditional withdrawal of all foreign troops,
while Western leaders want the Taliban to immediately stop all hostilities.
The diplomat also said he believed the Barack Obama administration was
desperate to slow down the advances of the Taliban, given that the US Democrats
had recently suffered a crucial setback in a senate election. Ahead of mid-term
elections in the US in November, the party could not afford any more major
embarrassments in Afghanistan, such as the suicide attack on a US spy base last
year and the recent attacks in the heart of Kabul, the capital.
The dialogue initiative, whether or not motivated in part by the US's desire to
buy time, could, however, turn out to be another embarrassment.
If, as the Arab fighter claims, the links between the Taliban and al-Qaeda now
run deeper than is generally reported, it would rule out any chance of senior
Taliban commanders being reconciled: firstly, they would not want to switch,
given their newfound loyalty to Mullah Omar and al-Qaeda. And secondly, if some
did conceivably seek reconciliation, they would presumably be "barred" anyway
for having links to al-Qaeda.
Lower-level Taliban could well be lured from the movement, but it is doubtful
they would leave in sufficient numbers, and the leadership would still be
intact to drive the resistance.
Previous reconciliation attempts have also done little to affect the Taliban's
leadership.
Within the Taliban, the institution of the ameerul momineen (commander
of the faithful) plays a vital role. Any defiance towards ameerul momineen
(Mullah Omar) means to become an outcast from the Taliban's ranks and the
person immediately loses his following.
An example is former Taliban commander Abdul Salam Rocketi, who was powerful in
the southern province of Zabul. Several years ago, he switched sides and he is
now a member of parliament. He was quickly replaced by little-known youths, to
whom the rank-and file immediately gave their full support. The same would
happen now should any commander defy Mullah Omar: he will have to leave his
region and move to Kabul.
The dialogue initiative has been started, though, and efforts in this direction
can be expected to intensify following this week's meeting in London.
For the Afghan war theater, the claimed new coordination agreement between
al-Qaeda and Taliban will see the Taliban stick to their guns, literally.
In the broader context, al-Qaeda says in the coming months it will concentrate
on Saudi Arabia to put Riyadh under immense pressure to pull back from its
support of the US-led "war on terror".
In Pakistan, meanwhile, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (Pakistani Taliban),
which has reorganized in Orakzai Agency after the military operations in the
Waziristan tribal areas, will re-engage the army in an effort to force the
political leadership not to become involved in the reconciliation efforts
between Washington and the Afghan Taliban.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can
be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
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Karzai is also pushing for Taliban names to be removed from a United Nations
blacklist that imposes travel restrictions and asset freezes. "[They should be]
welcome to come back to their country, lay down arms and resume life as
citizens of Afghanistan, enjoying the privileges and the rights and the
guarantees given by the Afghan constitution," Karzai said.
