India-Pakistan thaw key to Afghan peace
By Siddharth Srivastava
NEW DELHI - India has proposed the first high-level bilateral talks with
Pakistan since their peace process broke down following the terrorist attack on
Mumbai in November 2008.
New Delhi and Islamabad are still working on an agenda for meetings expected in
late February, but they are likely to address long-stalled issues such as the
divided Himalayan territory of Kashmir, joint anti-terror efforts and shared
water resources.
The offer of talks comes despite Islamabad not meeting New Delhi's demands
after the Mumbai attack that Pakistan convict those behind the November 26,
2008, atrocity, which left up to
173 dead, and crack down on any terrorism cells and infrastructure in Pakistan
aimed against India.
Delhi had repeatedly warned Islamabad that another major militant strike in
India would provoke a strong reaction, since the Lashkar-e-Taiba militant group
responsible for the Mumbai attack planned it on Pakistan soil.
The talks were proposed last Friday following a meeting between Pakistan's High
Commissioner to India, Shahid Malik, and Indian Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao.
Pakistan has called for a broader "composite dialogue", which also means
inclusion of Kashmir as one of the main topics of discussion.
Indian Foreign Minister S M Krishna has said the first step towards engaging
with Pakistan will be a high-profile visit by Home Minister P Chidambaram, the
first by an Indian minister since the November '08 attack, to Islamabad later
this month.
"Chidambaram will get a chance to have very useful exchanges with his
counterparts and other leaders in Pakistan,'' Krishna said. In a sign of
India's intentions to bring about a thaw in relations, he added that "India
should be quite satisfied with Pakistan taking a few steps to investigate the
Mumbai attack".
Chidambaram was appointed home minister in the wake of the strikes, and he has
since headed internal efforts to put in place a better intelligence and
security structure.
America has responded positively to the Indian proposal. "This is a welcome
move,'' said Assistant Secretary of State for Public Affairs PJ Crowley. "We
are supportive of dialogue among India, Pakistan and Afghanistan as a key
component of moving ahead and achieving a stable region."
Washington's focus has shifted to the western frontiers of Pakistan, where
al-Qaeda and the Taliban are thought to have their biggest base, and the US is
keen for simmering India-Pakistan relations to cool.
This would enable a redeployment of the massive Pakistani troop presence on its
eastern borders with India to the Afghan front, possibly paving the way for a
reduced American military presence in Afghanistan. However, it is unclear if
the proposed India-Pakistan talks have come at the prodding of Washington.
Pakistani Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani said in a recent interview that the
peace process should be resumed and not be held hostage to fallout from the
Mumbai attack. Islamabad has indicated that is it amenable to using Indian
evidence against the plotters of the attack, and has accepted that the small
boats used were launched from Karachi.
There are larger geopolitical factors in play, particularly America's
involvement in Afghanistan.
India's offer of talks can be seen in the context of global powers endorsing in
London last month a US-backed Afghan plan to seek reconciliation with the
Taliban. Pakistan is expected to play a big role in this, especially in
persuading the fundamentalist group to come to the negotiating table.
Pakistan will continue to remain a crucial cog in America's "war on terror''
and be a continued recipient of increased military aid. For now, Islamabad has
also managed to keep out the influence of India in brokering any deal with the
Taliban.
Delhi wants to have a say in Afghanistan, a role that Pakistan has kept for
itself until now, with the backing of some Muslim majority nations.
While direct military involvement in Afghanistan remains unfeasible (for now at
least) due to domestic concerns, India's civilian involvement is only expected
to grow.
Indian involvement in Afghanistan opens trade opportunities with nations in the
Middle East that are rich in natural resources. India imports the bulk of its
gas from Qatar and has been looking at sourcing energy resources from Iran,
though attempts via the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline have been stalled by
American tensions with Tehran over its nuclear program.
India has also been looking at the prospects of an undersea pipeline from
Qatar, which could loop through Iran at some future date. Indian firms have
also mapped out big plans to invest in Iran's gas rich South Pars fields.
Given the security and transit issues that India has with Pakistan,
particularly through volatile Balochistan province, Afghanistan could prove to
be a transit point for India's energy sources as well as somewhere it can limit
the influence of Islamabad.
Siddharth Srivastava is a journalist based in New Delhi. He can be
reached at sidsri@yahoo.com.
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