Cross-border militants strike back
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
ISLAMABAD - As a lone suicide bomber approached a convoy of security personnel
after walking through a crowded market he detonated the bomb strapped to his
body. Eleven people were killed and more than 35 injured in the massive blast
on Monday in the Nishat Chowk district of Mingora, the capital of Swat in
Pakistan's North-West Frontier Province (NWFP).
Gruesome scenes of bodies being recovered amid billowing black smoke, burning
vehicles and shattered buildings are not new to Pakistan; similar - and much
bigger - attacks occur regularly. What was significant about Monday's attack
was that it was the first in six months in the Swat area.
The return of violence to Swat is a direct result of the Taliban gaining
control of the provinces of Kunar and Nuristan across the
border in Afghanistan, sources in an al-Qaeda-led militant group tell Asia
Times Online.
In a series of operations in the tribal areas that started last year, beginning
in Swat and culminating in the offensive in North Waziristan, the Pakistani
military rolled back the extensive advances make by the Pakistan Taliban and
al-Qaeda. The militants were dispersed, with most disappearing into the wilds
on both sides of the border.
Then, towards the end of last year, United States troops evacuated their main
bases in Nuristan and border posts in Kunar and handed over responsibility for
security to the Afghan National Army (ANA). In November, the Taliban struck a
ceasefire deal with the ANA under which the Taliban agreed not to attack
provincial capitals in return for the ANA not attacking Taliban bases in the
two provinces. (See
Taliban take over Afghan province Asia Times Online, October 29, 2009.)
This, say the militant sources, allowed militants from across the border to
regroup, and Monday's attack is the first of what the sources say will be many
more in Swat, as well as other tribal areas. This includes the restive belt of
Bajaur Agency, Mohmand Agency and Dir and Swat in NWFP. There has already been
a revival of activity in Bajaur and Mohmand over the past few weeks.
The militant sources say that the fighters who have gathered in Kunar and
Nuristan have split into several groups to fight in Afghanistan and in Pakistan
on a rotational basis to make the optimum use of their human resources.
A senior militant linked with al-Qaeda told Asia Times Online by telephone that
the new assault in Pakistan would start in earnest once the weather improved in
the next few weeks, while the battle in Afghanistan would continue.
"If you remember, the Soviets also sent additional forces [to Afghanistan] in
the last days [late 1980s], but within a short period they decided they could
not beat the mujahideen and they withdrew. The US has done the same [with its
30,000 troop surge] and will soon face so many losses it will not have any
choice but to withdraw," the militant said.
Al-Qaeda and the Taliban arrests
The arrest over the past few days of several senior Taliban figures plays into
the hands of al-Qaeda, a militant connected with al-Qaeda tells Asia Times
Online. He says that as a result of the arrests, the Taliban have severed all
links of communication for dialogue - be it with Afghanistan, Pakistan or the
US - and they will now work more closely with al-Qaeda.
Those arrested include the Taliban's supreme commander in Afghanistan, Mullah
Abdul Ghani Baradar; the former governor of the Afghan province of Nangarhar,
Moulvi Abdul Kabeer; Mullah Abdul Salam, the shadow governor of Kunduz; and Mir
Muhammad, also a shadow governor in northern Afghanistan.
Apart from Baradar, these Taliban handed over to the US were very much "assets"
of the Pakistan military, which had direct links to them. Kabeer was known to
be in contact with the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) up until his arrest at
the weekend. Because of these links, he would not visit North Waziristan for
fear of reprisals from al-Qaeda militants. He was nevertheless on the Taliban's
command council.
Similarly, Salam had links to the ISI dating to the mid-1990s shortly before
the Taliban took control of Kabul - he represented the Taliban militia at the
ISI's headquarters in Islamabad and he remained an asset.
Baradar was not directly in contact with the ISI, but his movements were known
and security agencies turned a blind eye as he was considered one of Pakistan's
future strategic assets in Afghanistan.
"They [those arrested] were aces in the hands of the Pakistan military, which
could have used them to its favor, but now they are lost," a militant leader
told Asia Times Online. "Why? We are all wondering, but the fact is that now
the Taliban realize that they have no option but to join forces with al-Qaeda
in a regional battle against the US and all its allies, including Pakistan and
India," the militant said.
Commenting on the arrests, a senior strategic expert told Asia Times Online on
the condition of anonymity, "Undoubtedly, they were Pakistan's assets and their
arrest might have dire consequences for Pakistan. In my opinion, some very
narrow vested interests led to the arrests. Pakistani chief of army staff
General [Ashfaq Pervez] Kiani is scheduled to retire on November 27. He cannot
make a decision on an extension of his own service, it has to be done by the
government with the consent of Washington, and therefore Kiani agreed to make
former friends the scapegoats," the analyst said. Kiani has developed very
close ties to the US military and has effectively taken over "war on terror"
responsibilities from the civilian government.
Sections in the military that are not as keen as Kiani on close ties with the
US do not want to see his term extended, preferring one of their own to be
promoted. Aware of this, the ISI's counter-terrorism branch explained that
Baradar's arrest "was a mistake" and that intelligence officials were not aware
of his presence when they made the raid that led to his apprehension.
Nonetheless, with the other arrests that followed, especially that of Kabeer,
the Taliban are not buying this line and instead are looking to the regrouped
militants in Afghanistan to do their talking in both Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can
be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
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