Pakistan's divides grow ever-deeper
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
ISLAMABAD - The brazen attack on Monday on the United States consulate in
Peshawar, the capital of Pakistan's North-West Frontier Province (NWFP), was
the first ever against a US facility in the restive region.
The attack, in which gunmen fired on a security post at the consulate in broad
daylight before detonating a car bomb, killing eight people, comes at a key
time in Pakistan's turbulent history: deep fissures have created an environment
ripe for exploitation by militants.
At stake is not only the security - and survival - of Pakistan, but the broader
United States-led struggle in Afghanistan against the resilient Taliban.
In this volatile situation, political polarization has reached a climax
in insurgency-hit NWFP between the majority Pashtuns and non-Pashtuns. The
Punjab-dominated establishment comprising the judiciary, the chief of army
staff, the prime minister and the media corps has ganged up against Sindhi
President Asif Ali Zardari, making him a virtual figurehead. Al-Qaeda-led
militants, far from being crushed as the military claims, have regrouped and
are stronger than ever.
The timing and target of the Peshawar attack could not have been more
significant as it followed close on an announcement by army chief General
Ashfaq Parvez Kiani that the months-long operation in the South Waziristan
tribal area, the headquarters of the al-Qaeda linked Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan
(TTP - Pakistan Taliban) had been concluded and that thousands of displaced
families could return home. Earlier, Kiani had announced victories in Bajaur,
Mohmand and Khyber agencies against militants.
Monday's assault on the consulate - the first on a US mission in Pakistan since
2006 - was clearly a statement that any declarations about the demise of
militancy are grossly premature. The TTP claimed responsibility, but the plan
in all likelihood would have been hatched by al-Qaeda.
Although the US Embassy in Islamabad says that the four attackers in two
vehicles who tried to breach the heavily fortified compound caused only minor
damage, a Pakistani security official told Asia Times Online on the condition
of anonymity that the militants did enter the compound and exchanges of gun
fire were heard, followed by a huge explosion.
It is possible that the extent of the damage is being played down. It is an
open secret that the consulate serves as a front for Central Intelligence
Agency operations against al-Qaeda and it is also believed to be the
headquarters of American defense contractors who, according to American media,
have been tasked to kill militants and pro-Taliban and al-Qaeda figures in
Pakistan.
Shifting sands
In the past year, Pakistan has applied utmost strength against militants in the
tribal areas that border Afghanistan and all operations have been fully
coordinated and supervised by the Americans.
The militants have survived without major losses for the simple reason that
they have refused to directly engage the security forces, preferring to
disperse to remote areas to return another day once the heat had died down and
once refugees have returned home to provide them cover.
The political situation has played into the hands of the militants. From the
grand US-inspired vision of a strong democratically elected civilian government
that could place a firm hand on the tiller to steer Pakistan resolutely down
the US's chosen route in the "war on terror", Zardari's administration has been
critically weakened.
The fault lines began to emerge during General Pervez Musharraf’s presidency in
2007 when he signed the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) that granted
amnesty to hundreds of politicians, political workers and bureaucrats who were
accused of corruption, embezzlement, money laundering, murder and terrorism.
The NRO was brokered by Britain and the US and was fully backed by the military
and Kiani, who was at the time the chief spymaster of Musharraf's military-led
establishment. The main beneficiaries of the NRO were former premier Benazir
Bhutto and her spouse, Zardari. They were allowed to return to the country from
exile and a string of charges against them was dropped.
However, there was mistrust among all partners. Despite an understanding that
Bhutto would not return before elections scheduled for January 2008 (which were
later deferred a month due to Bhutto's assassination in December 2007), Bhutto
came back on September 17, 2007. Saudi Arabia then pressurized Musharraf to
also allow the return of another former premier, Nawaz Sharif.
In the general elections of February 18, 2008, Bhutto's Pakistan Peoples' Party
(PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League led by Sharif emerged the biggest winners.
The situation was so delicate that the military chose to remain neutral.
Militants immediately exploited the situation by unleashing an unprecedented
number of attacks across the country.
Musharraf tried to work with Zardari, who had taken over as co-chairman of the
PPP after his wife's killing, to form a joint political front against the
militants, but by then Musharraf had lost his grip at the helm of affairs - he
stepped down in August 2008.
Kiani, by now chief of army staff, refused to take orders from Musharraf, and
after Musharraf’s foiled bids to dislodge him from his position Kiani developed
ties with Zardari. In a tacit understanding between Washington, the Pakistan
military and Zardari, Musharraf was given an honorable exit after nine years in
power.
What the military did not anticipate was that Zardari would pitch himself as
president. All intelligence reports had indicated that he would choose to be
elected as a member of parliament in a by-election and then run the government
as a de facto prime minister. Despite deep resentment against Zardari over his
tainted past, the military could not stop him from being elected president in
September 2008.
That was the beginning of a tug-of-war between the civilian government and the
military establishment. The PPP-led government tried many times to bring the
powerful Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) under the authority of the civilian
government.
In addition, the military resented that several of Zardari's close friends who
had very bad business reputations became a part of the government. Zardari
ignored promptings from the ISI to distance himself from these associates.
Zardari also stepped quickly and deeply into the US camp, to such a degree that
China tacitly urged Pakistan to clarify the state of China-Pakistan relations.
At this point, the military began to set its sights on Zardari's government.
The top brass reached out to the judiciary, the prime minister, leader of the
opposition, Sharif, and the media corps as they all have strong roots in
Pakistan's largest province, Punjab.
Zardari tried to appease Kiani by dishing out business opportunities to members
of his family, but Kiani was not impressed and continued to weave his Punjabi
nexus, which took a thread from Richard Holbrooke, the US envoy for Pakistan
and Afghanistan who is rumored not to be a big supporter of Zardari.
The military establishment took its concerns over Zardari to the US joint
chiefs of staff chairman Admiral Mike Mullen and finally even to US Secretary
of State Hillary Clinton. They hammered home the point that the real player was
the military, not Zardari. Last month's high-level meetings in Washington
between officials from Pakistan (including Kiani but not Zardari) and the US
were an endorsement that Pakistan's political setup is now irrelevant in the
"war on terror" and that all dealings are being made through the military.
Soon after Kiani returned from the US, the judiciary moved into action. The
additional director general of the Federal Investigation Bureau, considered one
of the most trusted people in the PPP government, was arrested on corruption
charges. Corruption cases against the president are expected to be reopened as
the Supreme Court last December declared the NRO unconstitutional.
Parliament is also debating a bill of constitutional amendments that could
result in the president being stripped of sweeping powers, including a transfer
of powers from the Office of the President to the prime minister, taking away,
including other things, the president's power to dismiss an elected government
and appoint military chiefs. An all-party parliamentary committee has already
agreed on the amendments.
One of the amendments - which was approved on Thursday - changes the name of
NWFP to Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa - meaning "Khyber side of the land of the
Pakhtuns". This has been a long-standing demand of the Pashtuns who dominate
the region but it has to date been resisted by the Pakistani establishment as
being a part of a conspiracy to break up the country. Non-Pashtuns in the
province immediately rioted and called for a general strike. There were reports
of violence.
As much as anything, the name change reflects the deep divisions in Pakistan,
from the Pashtuns to the Punjabis, to the politicians to the generals -
divisions and government indecision that militants will indubitably exploit to
the full.
Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He is
writing an exclusive account of al-Qaeda's strategy and ideology in an upcoming
book 9/11 and beyond: The One Thousand and One Night Tales of al-Qaeda. He
can be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
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