Page 1 of 2 India's space program takes a hit
By Peter J Brown
In mid-April, the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) tested a large,
multi-stage rocket which was equipped with a new cryogenic engine that had been
designed and developed by Indian engineers.
Roughly five minutes into this third development flight, the Geosynchronous
Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV-D3) suffered a third-stage ignition failure and
as a result of the malfunctioning launch vehicle, the GSAT-4 communications and
navigation satellite on board was lost.
ISRO could do not dismiss or evade the media onslaught that ensued.
"After the unsuccessful flight, the ISRO chairman, K Radhakrishnan, initially
suggested that two small cryogenic
steering engines, which swivel to maintain the rocket's orientation, might have
malfunctioned. Later, however, he indicated that the main cryogenic engine
itself might not have ignited. In such a complex system as the cryogenic stage,
even a small defect that escapes attention is sufficient to doom the flight,"
The Hindu declared on its editorial page, for example. "But the space agency
would be unwise to confine its analysis to problems encountered with the
indigenous cryogenic stage. This is an opportunity for a thorough examination
of the entire GSLV rocket and its past five flights. There have, for instance,
been problems with the Vikas liquid-propellant engine in previous flights. The
procedures for the manufacture, assembly, and pre-flight testing of all liquid
propellant engines and stages need particular attention. A comprehensive review
would best ensure the future reliability of the GSLV." (1)
Over the last two to three years, the total space budget allocated to India's
Department of Space has been growing at a rate greater than any of the other
major space faring countries. The latest increase from 2009 to 2010 was
approximately 35% - from 41.67 billion Indian rupees (US$934 million) to 57.78
billion rupees this year, just over $1.1 Billion. (2) While this huge spike in
funding seems impressive on a percentage basis, it is worth noting that the US
National Aeronautic and Space Administration's budget, for example, exceeds $18
Billion in 2010.
Still, this budgetary surge translates quickly into political pressure from
Delhi to perform flawlessly, and certainly does not make this latest incident
any easier to digest at ISRO headquarters.
The GSLV-D3 was launched from ISRO's Satish Dhawan Space Center, which occupies
an island located off India's spectacular southeast coast in Andhra Pradesh.
The exact cause of the failure is still unknown. ISRO has spent years, indeed
decades, working on cryogenic rocket technology in an attempt to match the
satellite launch capabilities of top-tier space faring nations. The Europeans,
Russians, Japanese, Chinese and the Americans have all successfully
incorporated this technology into their space programs. In 2011, if everything
proceeds on schedule, ISRO will attempt another cryogenic engine-propelled
flight test.
Russia has supplied India with these cryogenic engines in the past and the next
two GSLV flights will use these Russian-built engines, but ISRO considers
mastery of this cryogenic technology, which involves super-cooled propellants,
as extremely vital to ISRO's future plans to make very low-cost satellite
launches a reality. ISRO has frequently declared that it is intent upon
offering satellite launch services at bargain rates, but since its first
successful launch of an Italian satellite in 2007, ISRO's campaign to become
one of the world's top satellite launch service providers has progressed much
more slowly than expected.
Antrix Corp Ltd - the commercial development arm of India's Department of Space
- offers civilian launch services via both its existing GSLV and its Polar
Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV). Antrix has already established an alliance
with the European satellite consortium, EADS Astrium.
The PSLV is designed to launch payloads weighing up to 1.6 tons into so-called
sun synchronous orbits, and it simply lacks the raw power or lift capacity
necessary to carry typical communications satellites which can often weigh four
tons or more deeper into space. This altitude is needed so these satellites can
be stationed in their permanent orbital slots around the earth - 36,000
kilometers above the equator.
The same is basically true for the existing GSLV, which also is hindered by its
carrying capacity. It can only accommodate satellites weighing 2.2 tons or
less, which is why India is developing the GSLV-D3 and its successors to serve
as India's heavyweight class of launch vehicles capable of lifting satellites
and other payloads weighing four tons or more.
India's next launch attempt - a PSLV mission - was to take place in mid-May.
However, in late April, ISRO postponed it and the new launch date has not been
announced. The plan calls for PSLV-C15 to launch an Indian earth observation
satellite named Cartosat-2B. Besides Cartosat-2B, an Algerian satellite known
as Alsat, two Canadian tiny, so-called nano-satellites and a "Studsat" which is
a one-kilogram satellite created by Indian university students, will make the
trip, too.
Despite the GSLV-D3 loss, ISRO and Antrix remain active and seemingly unchanged
by this experience. In order to accurately gauge how this incident has impacted
ISRO, and to better assess ISRO's current overall status, Asia Times Online
reached out to two experts on the Indian space program.
Professor Asif Siddiqi at Fordham University in New York is writing a book on
the Indian space program. He is also one of the co-authors of "The Future of
Human Spaceflight: Objectives and Policy Implications in a Global Context",
which was produced last year as part of the American Academy of Arts and
Sciences project entitled, "Reconsidering the Rules of Space".
Bharath Gopalaswamy, a researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research
Institute's Arms Control and Non-proliferation Program, specializes in space
security with a principal focus on India's civilian and military space
programs.
Siddiqi views the loss of the GSLV-D3 as clearly having a psychological impact
on ISRO personnel.
"ISRO has been surging recently with very ambitious plans and expectations that
called for some unrealistic schedules. The GSLV-D3 failure will curb some of
the lofty rhetoric coming out of ISRO in recent years," said Siddiqi. "The
failure of the cryogenic engine has a more direct impact on the payloads
manifested for the GSLV in the near future as well, particularly the GSAT
satellites."
It has been widely reported that ISRO is definitely disappointed and that this
represents a setback. However, ISRO had a backup plan in place involving
Russian cryogenic engines that were obtained long before the GSLV-D3 headed for
its launch pad.
"The setback primarily is because if this launch had been successful, it would
have enabled India to launch its own communication satellites, its first manned
space flight (now scheduled for 2017) and the Chandrayaan 2 lunar probe in
2012," said Gopalaswamy. "The decision to revert back to using Russian boosters
is a prudent one. India has two scheduled launches of GSLV for the fiscal year
2010-2011 and it is quite doubtful if the indigenous cryogenic engines would be
ready by then. Hence, this has to be considered a prudent if not an inevitable
decision."
Siddiqi describes cryogenic engines as "notoriously hard to troubleshoot and it
may make sense for ISRO to invite Russian cooperation to investigate the
failure".
"From what I have heard there are conflicting accounts of exactly what
happened. If it is discovered that the main engine did not ignite at all as
some reports suggest, this will be a big setback," said Siddiqi. "If the engine
ignited even for one second as other reports suggest, this would be relatively
speaking good news."
The fact that ISRO has taken nearly 20 years to develop its own indigenous
cryogenic engine is not the issue here. Instead, the real issue is that all of
the other nations who now possess this capability were able to attain this
level of competence much quicker than ISRO.
"So, on the one hand, we should be impressed that ISRO has joined such a select
club, but on the other hand, the long development time indicates a general
trend in ISRO programs involving chronic delays," said Siddiqi.
That said, Siddiqi considers ISRO to be a relatively robust organization that
has achieved most of the goals it has set out to achieve, although almost none
of its goals have been achieved on time. This is neither unusual nor
exceptional. Routine delays and constant rescheduling are common to most of the
world's space programs.
"ISRO has mastered technological systems that put it on par with the 'second
tier' states such as the European Space Agency and Japan and [with respect to
remote sensing, for example] on par with the best in the world," said
Siddiqi.
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