They came, sat, ate and left
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
ISLAMABAD - Nine years ago, the United States and its allies placed high hopes
on the Bonn accords, a series of agreements that recreated the state of
Afghanistan following the US invasion of Afghanistan in late 2001.
A picture was painted of a peaceful Afghanistan, minus the Taliban, once again
functioning as a normal state in the international community, rebuilt with
massive injections of aid, and goodwill, and that a political process would
eliminate militancy.
Nothing of the kind happened, yet similar lofty expectations
surround the three-day loya jirga (grand council) currently underway in
a massive air-conditioned tent in the capital Kabul; it, too, is destined for
failure.
The more than 1,600 members of parliament, tribal and religious leaders and
leading representatives from civic society picked by the government are
gathered to debate proposals put forward by President Hamid Karzai on the
reintegration of lower-level Taliban into Afghan society by offering them
amnesty, jobs and security. Karzai wants to gauge the mood of ordinary Afghans
on whether the government should negotiate directly with Taliban leaders, and
if so, which ones.
Also on the agenda is whether militant leaders should be removed from a United
Nations blacklist that freezes assets and prevents travel. A total of 137
people associated with the Taliban and 258 with al-Qaeda are on the list.
The delegates have been divided into nearly 30 committees to discuss the main
issues. Their opinions will be collated and a final statement given on Friday.
The Taliban have dismissed the jirga, saying in a statement attributed
to them that the event was aimed at "securing the interests of foreigners" and
that it was a "phony reconciliation process".
To underscore this point, rockets were fired during the opening ceremony on
Wednesday and two suicide bombers dressed in women's burqas (veils and
gowns) succeeded in breaking through a 12,000-strong security cordon before
killing themselves.
The incident followed soon after Karzai in his opening remarks called on the
Taliban to "make peace with me and there will be no need for foreigners here",
in reference to the main demand by senior Taliban officials that they will not
negotiate until all foreign troops leave the country.
Opposition leader Abdullah Abdullah, who lost in last year's presidential
election to Karzai, announcing on June 1 that he would stay away from the jirga,
or Consultative Peace Jirga as it is formally known.
Karzai is no stranger to loya jirgas, the centuries-old Pashtun grand
councils traditionally used to chose a new king, adopt a constitution or
discuss important national political or emergency matters.
In July 2002, at a loya jirga in Kabul attended by more 2,000 delegates,
Karzai was appointed as president of the Afghan Transitional Administration,
the position he has retained in two national elections. Karzai has used jirgas
to settle disputes in the Pashtun areas of Afghanistan as well as spats with
Pakistan.
He is now staking the country's future on this week's loya jirga, which
is a follow-up of a similar but smaller gathering in the Maldives last month.
These talks were organized by Homayoun Jarir, son-in-law of Gulbuddin
Hekmatyar, the veteran leader of the Hezb-e Islami and a key component in the
Taliban-led insurgency. Jarir claimed he was acting as a go-between for the
Afghan government and Hekmatyar.
However, according to militant sources who spoke to Asia Times Online,
Hekmatyar was not amused and sent a note to Jarir saying "enough is enough" and
that he had no right to represent him. Jarir is an ethnic Tajik from the
Pansher Valley, and a poet and trader of blue sapphires. He sided with the
slain Ahmad Shah Massoud of the North Alliance in the 1990s against Hekmatyar
in the turbulent years of inter-mujahideen fighting that led to the Taliban
seizing power in 1996.
According to some observers, one aim of the jirga is to win support to
invite Hekmatyar to join the political process. He twice served as premier in
the early 1990s but has been labeled by the US State Department as a "specially
designated global terrorist" .
The Maldives conference - and the Kabul loya jirga - come at a time when
the insurgency has surrounded Kabul - from Logar, Ghazni, Parwan, Kapisa and
Wardak provinces. The insurgents also control the majority of districts in the
provinces of Kandahar, Helmand and Farah, while they have partial control in
Paktika, Khost and Nangarhar provinces.
The deteriorating security situation in the Afghan border provinces with
Pakistan has led to an increased inflow of fighters from the Hindu Kash
mountain regions where the Taliban, al-Qaeda and Pakistani militants have
important sanctuaries. According to some reports, almost 60% of the militants
in the Pakistani tribal areas have left for Afghanistan - this could mean
thousands of men.
Their passage is made easier as there are few effective border posts, either of
the Afghan National Army or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The
main crossing points are in the Birmal and Shawal areas. There are other
passages from Bajaur and Mohmand agencies in Pakistan.
The pressure is to a large extent off the Pakistani security forces in the
tribal areas, which have had a tough time over the past months, while their
counterparts across the border will now feel extra heat in the summer months.
To stem this cross-border flow, the US has exerted extraordinary pressure on
Pakistani chief of army staff General Ashfaq Parvez Kiani to launch an
offensive in North Waziristan, without success. Kiani has rejected overtures
from US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Central Intelligence Agency chief
Leon Panetta and National Security Advisor James Jones.
Kiani was invited to Kabul last month to meet with the American commander in
Afghanistan, General Stanley McChrystal, and Karzai. However, Kiani, who to
date had acceded to all US desires, stood firm as he fears the militant
backlash from an operation in North Waziristan would be devastating for
Pakistan.
He would rather that all Pakistani militants, including Mullah Fazlullah,
simply leave Pakistan. Mullah Fazlullah, nicknamed "Radio Mullah", is the
leader of the pro-Taliban Tehrik-Nifaz-i-Shariat-i-Mohammadi that controls the
insurgency in Swat. He was reported by Afghan authorities as having been killed
during the Taliban's capture of the Barge Matal district in Nuristan province
last month, but this has not been independently verified.
Kiani does not, however, object to the US's increasingly numerous drone attacks
on militants in North Waziristan as they eliminate Pakistan's enemies while at
the same time concentrating the Taliban's anger against the coalition forces in
Afghanistan.
In a recent attack, Mustafa Abu al-Yazid, also known as Sheikh Sa'id al-Masri,
is reported by the US to have been killed in the village of Boya near Miranshah
in North Waziristan. The Egyptian Masri has been described as one of Osama bin
Laden's most senior lieutenants and in charge of al-Qaeda's Afghan war. He was
also an important fund-raiser.
Washington has to take a decision by next year on whether it stays in
Afghanistan or begins a withdrawal. United States officials have been running
from pillar to post to find a way out of the quagmire, which is where Karzai's loya
jirga comes in, and why there are such raised hopes for it, just as
there were at the time of the Bonn initiative.
In all of the bloody years since then, with thousands of lives lost and
billions of dollars spent, not much has changed. The thousand-plus tribal
leaders enjoying Kabul's hospitality and its famed Kabuli rice will be all too
aware of this, as much as they are of the popular saying, "Amadan, nashistan,
guftan, tuaman and barkhastan". "Come sit, talk, eat and leave."
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can
be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
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