India slips Myanmar a nudge and a wink
By Sudha Ramachandran
BANGALORE - Myanmar's Senior General Than Shwe ended a five-day visit to India
on Thursday having sealed several pacts that will boost security and economic
cooperation between the two countries. A treaty on mutual legal assistance in
criminal matters will enable India to get access to insurgents from its
northeastern states who are taking sanctuary along the India-Myanmar border.
The treaty will also boost bilateral efforts to combat terrorism and drug
trafficking.
India has also pledged a grant of US$60 million for the construction of a road
linking its northeast with Myanmar, besides a grant of $10 million for Myanmar
to purchase agricultural
machinery from India.
More than these million-dollar deals, it is the red-carpet welcome that Than
Shwe received that the junta will probably value most of all. Under criticism
from the West for its plans to hold elections under a constitution that cements
the military's role in politics even as it excludes the participation of main
opposition figure Aung San Suu Kyi, the India visit is endorsement for the
junta from the world's largest democracy.
The warm welcome triggered condemnation worldwide and angry protests by
Myanmarese exiles in Delhi. These are pro-democracy activists, including monks
who have gone in waves to India since the 1988 military crackdown.
To the pro-democracy activists, Than Shwe's visit was full of ironies. Here was
a general who presided over a bloody crackdown on Buddhist monks in 2008,
visiting Bodh Gaya in eastern India, where the Lord Buddha is believed to have
attained enlightenment.
In Delhi, the general laid a wreath at Rajghat, the memorial to Mahatma Gandhi.
Gandhi's non-violent resistance against colonial rule has inspired millions
across the world, including the junta's bete noire, Suu Kyi. And to top it, it
was the world's largest democracy that was feting the general.
The feeling of betrayal by India among pro-democracy activists is
understandable. India was, after all, once their biggest supporter. In 1988, it
not only condemned the junta's crackdown on student protesters, but also
officials in the Indian Embassy in Yangon are believed to have helped
opposition groups during the protests and India provided sanctuary to
pro-democracy activists fleeing the junta's crackdown. In 1992, Delhi even
sponsored a United Nations resolution calling on the junta to heed the verdict
of the 1990 election and restore democracy.
Compare that with the Indian government's response, or rather lack of response,
to developments in Myanmar in recent years and the extent of India's policy
shift becomes evident. It remained silent for months during the 2007 mass
protests in Yangon. When it finally spoke in a bland statement, the government
said that it was "concerned" and expressed hope "that all sides will resolve
their issues peacefully through dialogue".
It failed to condemn or even take note of the junta's ruthless suppression of
peaceful protest. There has been no comment from India on Myanmar's new
constitution, which entrenches the military in the power structure. The
extension of Suu Kyi's house detention last year was also met with stony
silence from Delhi.
Indian officials deny that India has abandoned the pro-democracy movement in
Myanmar. An official in India's Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) told Asia
Times Online some months ago that India was still committed to democracy and
human rights in that country. Only it had adopted "a more nuanced approach, one
that involves dealing with the government and commitment to human rights and
democracy", he said. Explaining its silence on important developments in
Myanmar, he said that raising "sensitive issues" such as the restoration of
democracy or Suu Kyi's detention in public was "unproductive". India preferred
"to nudge Myanmar quietly on issues of concern,'' he said.
So did India nudge Than Shwe on issues related to the restoration of democracy
during the Delhi visit?
K Yhome, associate fellow at the Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation, told
Asia Times Online that it was likely that India would have raised its concerns
about the elections. "It would have made it clear that the generals must, to
the extent possible, ensure free and fair elections in a manner that would make
the elections credible to the international community," he said, adding that
India was putting pressure on the generals "in its own way".
India's influence over the generals has grown significantly over the past 15
years. It was concern over China's mounting influence in Myanmar that prompted
Delhi to begin courting the generals in the mid-1990s, hesitantly at first and
then assiduously over the past decade.
There were other reasons too. Success of its "Look East" policy was not
possible if it remained reluctant to build ties with Myanmar - the
"land-bridge" that links India with Southeast Asia. Besides, northeastern
insurgents were taking sanctuary in Myanmar. Counter-insurgency operations
there required the junta's cooperation.
Myanmar's ample gas reserves have been a huge attraction as well. Realizing
that the generals would be in power the foreseeable future at least, Indian
policymakers felt they had to engage them. This prompted the shift to a more
"realistic policy" over Myanmar.
Justifying India's engagement of the generals, Pranab Mukherjee, then India's
foreign minister, said in 2006 that India had to deal with governments "as they
exist". "We are a democracy and we would like democracy to flourish everywhere.
But we cannot export our ideologies," he said.
Unlike the West, which has dismissed the proposed election in Myanmar as a
sham, India is taking a more nuanced view. The election, while it will not be
perfect, is an important step in a longer process of democratization.
Yhome explains that in a country like Myanmar, which has been under military
rule for decades, democratization will be "an incremental process". To expect
total regime change like the one the US expected is unrealistic. "No solution
can realistically exclude them [the generals]. We have to accept the reality on
the ground, recognize that some players will remain important and that we have
to deal with them," he said.
Again, while India has remained silent on the opposition National League for
Democracy's decision to boycott the elections, it is believed that it was in
favor of the party participating in the poll. "The NLD had a choice between
entering the fray and working the system, or staying out of it and going into
oblivion. Unfortunately, it chose the latter," the MEA official observed.
Journalist Siddharth Varadarajan, writing in the Hindu newspaper, has drawn
attention to the seeming blunder the NLD has committed in boycotting the poll:
''A boycott will be effective only if the NLD can mobilize enough
support on the streets and if the military fears the adverse impact this would
have on its international standing. Neither of these conditions hold. The SPDC
[State Peace and Development Council] has already hit rock bottom in the global
popularity stakes and the opposition's chances of paralyzing Yangon, Mandalay
and the new capital of Naypyitaw are low indeed. Given how well-entrenched the
military is and given Southeast Asia region's preference for 'order', a 'guided
democracy' is the best that can be hoped for under the present circumstances.
But even this would be a huge improvement over the current stalemate and would
open up political spaces that Daw Suu Kyi and the NLD could slowly utilize."
It is highly likely that the election, if held at all, will be flawed. But that
is inevitable, considering the country has been under military rule for over
half a century. The political transition will be slow and move in fits and
starts. Yet changes that were unthinkable even a year ago are happening.
The election will create political institutions that Myanmar has not had for
decades - a presidential system, two houses of parliament, 14 regional
governments and assemblies. All the same, a quarter of those sitting in
parliament will be from the military. And it is likely that many civilians in
the house will be their cronies. Still, "it will be the most wide-ranging
transformation in a generation and offers an opportunity for a change in the
future direction of the country", Jim Della-Giacoma of the International Crisis
Group has observed.
While the generals have clearly secured themselves by framing the rules of the
game in a way that will ensure their future role in Myanmar's politics, the
upcoming transition will fill them with uncertainties. Two decades ago, when
they did hold elections, their plans blew up in their faces as the NLD tidal
wave swept them away, only for the result to be ignored.
Since 2007, monks in Myanmar have declared Pattani Kuzanakan against the
junta their families in protest of the brutal crackdown. Pattani Kuzanakan
imposes a boycott on the offender and prohibits monks from accepting offerings
and preaching sermons to the offender, necessary for Buddhists to earn karmic
credit. Those spurned become outcasts from Buddhist society.
At Bodh Gaya, the highly religious and superstitious Than Shwe prayed for about
five hours, fed monks at a monastery and donated approximately $11,000 to the
temple.
Clearly, he wants the path ahead to be as smooth as possible.
Sudha Ramachandran is an independent journalist/researcher based in
Bangalore.
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