Pakistan lurches through new crisis
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
ISLAMABAD - The largest Islamic party in Pakistan, the Jamiat-e-Ulema-e-Islam
Fazlur Rahman (JUI-F), has withdrawn from the Pakistan People's Party-led
coalition government after the sacking of its minister from the federal
government.
The Muttehada Quami Movement (MQM), the second-largest party in the coalition,
is deciding whether or not to withdraw its support after a PPP provincial
minister repeated his accusations of the MQM being involved in criminal
activities.
If the MQM with its 25 members and the JUI-F with its seven members in the
National Assembly join forces with the
opposition, the opposition parties would have a majority of 12 in the
340-member assembly and the government could fall.
However, in the complex game that is Pakistani politics, it is more likely that
the American-backed coalition government will find a way to survive, and it
will be business as usual in both the international and domestic spheres until
the next crisis breaks.
Origins of the crisis
Anti-Taliban cleric Hamid Saeed Kazmi of the PPP was the minister for religious
affairs. He, along with other members of the bureaucracy in the ministry were
accused of large-scale misappropriation of funds that caused inconvenience to
thousands of Pakistani pilgrims to Saudi Arabia for the annual hajj.
The Saudi royal family wrote a letter to the Pakistani Supreme Court over the
matter, saying that officials were taking kick-backs in business deals meant to
provide facilities for pilgrims in Saudi Arabia.
Another cabinet member, Azam Khan Swati, minister for science and technology
from the pro-Taliban JUI-F, which has always eyed the Religious ministry,
jumped into the fray. Swati, the richest member of parliament in history
according to his declared assets, presented apparent evidence against Kazmi to
the media and the judiciary.
Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gillani, whose name was also discussed in
connection with the appointment of an official allegedly involved in the hajj
scam, advised both cabinet members to restrain themselves and not become
involved in public mud-slinging, but when his advice was not taken he sacked
both men.
Zardari tried to smooth things over with Maulana Fazlur Rahman, the chief of
the JUI-F, and MQM leaders, but to no avail. Rahman refused to take Zardari's
call and MQM leaders made it clear that they only cared for the sensitivities
of the holy Muslim month of Muharram and they would show their reaction when it
ended after next week.
This crisis coincided with an incident in the southern port city of Karachi,
where traders, sick and tired of daily robberies and abductions, invited the
provincial home minister, Zulfikhar Mirza, a close confidant and business
partner of President Asif Ali Zardari, to meet them.
But Mirza proceeded to lambaste the traders. "The government faces an acute
financial crisis after [this year's] floods. It does not have money to arrange
security [for you]. Why don’t you people contribute funds for the improvement
of policing? Why don’t you [do this] as you have money to contribute to the
Taliban, and as you have money to pay protection money to the largest political
party of this city [MQM]? Why don’t you contribute money to equip the police?"
Mirza said.
He then presented a long charge-sheet against the MQM, accusing it of being
involved in all sorts of crimes, including target killings, abduction for
ransom and protection rackets.
External influences
Following the strategic dialogue between Washington and Islamabad in the last
week of October, Pakistan was left with little option but to launch a military
operation in the North Waziristan tribal area, a militant hot bed and staging
ground for the Taliban-led insurgency across the border.
Pakistan promised Washington, which pledged new aid packages during the
dialogue, that it would take action after Muharram, a month during which
traditionally fighting is prohibited.
As soon as army chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kiani returned from the talks in
the US, Zardari visited China. (See
Pakistan heads down China road Asia Times Online, November 11, 2010.)
In return, Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao is due in Pakistan this week after
a trip to India. He is expected to offer Pakistan a new investment package.
Also in town are General David Petraeus, the US's top man in Afghanistan, and
Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. They are expected
to press Kiani for a massive operation in North Waziristan, mainly targeting
the Haqqani network, rather than the army's preference for limited surgical
strikes against al-Qaeda.
Settling differences
Pakistan's political powerbrokers are working overtime, and background
interviews conducted by Asia Times Online suggest the government is not too
bothered about Rahman's withdrawal. "Don't read too much from the desertion of
Fazlur Rahman. He is upset because his financial henchman [Swati] has been
sacked. He will do his face-saving and then join [the government] under a new
deal," a senior PPP member told Asia Times Online on the condition of
anonymity.
However, the indications are that the government is concerned about the MQM's
25 seats and, as has happened in the past, it will probably send Interior
Minister Rahman Malik to London to talk to the MQM's founder and leader, Altaf
Hussain.
Malik is a former director general of the Federal Investigation Agency, which
was at the forefront of military operations against the MQM in the 1990s during
which extra-judicial killings and forced disappearances were rife. Though he is
now said to be a close friend of Hussain, he is more likely to use pressure
tactics.
A PPP leader who holds a diplomatic position told Asia Times Online. "Whenever
Hussain threatens to leave the coalition he [Malik] sees him in London and
solicits him not to go. Hussain refuses to come to terms, so Malik goes to
Hussain's former wife's residence and informs Hussain where he is.
"Hussain doesn't want to open a Pandora's box about his controversial family
and political life associated with his former wife. So he will issue a
statement that both parties can co-exist. This happens every time and it will
be the case in the future as well."
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief and
author of upcoming book Inside Al-Qaeda and the Taliban 9/11 and Beyond
published by Pluto Press, UK. He can be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
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