Al-Qaeda sees opportunity in peace
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
ISLAMABAD - With the great 2011 Arab revolt still simmering, Western leaders
are scrambling to bring to an end the 10-year war in Afghanistan, where the
Taliban-led insurgency remains unbeaten. A step in the direction of an endgame
through a political reconciliation process is likely to be taken at a
preparatory conclave on the security and reconstruction of Afghanistan to be
held in Turkey's capital Ankara next month.
The Taliban have obtained permission from the Turkish government to open an
office in Turkey, former Taliban
administration minister Arsala Rahmani told the media in the United States.
Last week, a senior Afghan official, Mohammad Massoom Stanekzai, secretary of
the Afghan High Peace Council and an adviser to Afghan President Hamid Karzai,
announced a US$50 million donation from the United States government to the
council - the body responsible for seeking peace talks with the Taliban - in
support of reconciliation efforts.
This is the beginning of official, up-front peace negotiations with the
Taliban, which to date have taken place in backrooms.
However, in stark contrast to US hopes, the Wall Street Journal recently
reported that al-Qaeda was gradually returning to the eastern Afghan provinces
of Nuristan and Kunar, setting up bases for the first time in years in the wake
of the withdrawal of US troops from the area to more populated centers.
Asia Times Online earlier broke the story that after a pause of many years,
al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden has been active in the Hindu Kush mountain
region of Kunar and Nuristan in Afghanistan and Pakistan's Bajaur regions (see
Bin Laden sets alarm bells ringing March 25, 2011) and that al-Qaeda
was expanding its territorial influence in the vacuum left behind by US troops.
This raises a question: What does al-Qaeda, the real mastermind of the South
Asian war theater, plan by entering into eastern Afghanistan where it already
has a powerful local commander, Qari Ziaur Rahman, at a time when a peace
negotiation process is about to begin? (See
A fighter and a financier Asia Times Online, May 23, 2008 and the
video, The Taliban's new
breed of leader.)
Asia Times Online spoke to an al-Qaeda-affiliated strategist on the condition
of anonymity as his current situation does not allow his name to be used.
"There are two important things to understand. First, the Western coalition is
heavily engaged in the Middle East and North Africa. The situation is so
complex that it does not allow the West to disengage from there. Revolts within
army ranks have begun in Yemen, which is geographically the second-most
important region for al-Qaeda," the strategist said.
"This is a multi-layered problem in the Arab world which will become further
aggravated. In the meantime, the West has the hallucination that it can keep
the Taliban busy through peace negotiations while it resolves the crisis in the
Arab world. That idea will never be realized.
"The Taliban will certainly use this breathing space to strategize the war
theater and I have a strong hunch that this time the Taliban will make a major
breakthrough in Afghanistan. To me, this is no more a case of years, it looks
like an issue of months now."
This was somewhat surprising, as the politics of peace and war have always been
al-Qaeda’s dialectic. In the past 10 years of its war against foreign forces
and Pakistan, al-Qaeda has always used peace agreements for the enlargement of
its war strategies.
Only recently, with peace activities echoing in the air, a battle front was
opened in the Pakistani tribal areas of Mohmand and Bajaur situated near the
Hindu Kush. Al-Qaeda has previously scuttled dialogue processes, such as the
Grand Peace Jirga (council) that was announced in Kabul in August 2007.
Al-Qaeda has always used Pakistan as a part of its grand designs for the
region. The al-Qaeda-linked strategist explained: "Pakistan is desperately
looking for a reconciliation process with the militants on its side of the
border because if, hypothetically, the Americans strike a peace deal with the
Taliban and supposedly leave the war theater, Pakistan would be left alone and
without any resources.
"Its resource pool to fight a war has already been squeezed. However, I don't
see any formula through which Pakistan could settle its issues with militants.
I think militancy will continue to haunt Pakistan.
"I don’t think that the situation in the Arab world will evaporate into the air
in the next several months, therefore any breakthrough in Afghanistan will pave
the way for al-Qaeda to reorganize its cadre and march to its ultimate war
theater - the Middle East," the strategist said.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief and
author of upcoming book Inside al-Qaeda and the Taliban, beyond 9/11 published
by Pluto Press, UK. He can be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
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