COMMENT Afghanistan might pull off a miracle
By Mohammad Amin Mudaqiq
The mob attack on a United Nations office in the northern Afghan city of
Mazar-e Sharif on April 4 demonstrated how ill-prepared the Afghan security
forces are to handle security responsibilities on their own.
The mob - apparently protesting a Koran burning in Florida - ransacked the UN
offices in a city that is considered an oasis of stability in Afghanistan.
Mazar-e Sharif is one of the seven provinces and towns slotted for a complete
handover to Afghan hands in July.
As Afghan leaders emphasize sovereignty and brace their forces
for the responsibility of ensuring the security of their country, critics ask
whether Afghanistan is capable of handling this monumental task independently.
Given that the most sophisticated war machine in history could not stabilize
Afghanistan despite trying various approaches for a decade, how can the poorly
armed Afghan Army succeed in pulling off this miracle now?
Long-term partnership needed
Notwithstanding the negative prognoses in Western media, it is not impossible
that Afghans can secure their future. Afghanistan's tumultuous history over the
past couple of centuries offers evidence that its people are capable of
securing their homeland.
After all, in the mid-20th century, Afghanistan was one of the most stable
countries in Asia. With the help of their international partners, they are
fully capable of recreating a stable and secure country.
A long-term strategic partnership between Afghanistan and the North Atlantic
Treaty Organization (NATO) must be in place before the last official handover
ceremonies take place. That partnership should include the establishment of a
couple of NATO bases in Afghanistan, which can help prevent the disintegration
of the Afghan security forces.
The Afghan National Army might project the image of a disciplined and
professional force, but it is still prone to dissipate into the rival factions
of the 1990s civil-war era. Ordinary Afghans believe that many among its
rank-and-file are more loyal to regional identities and strongmen than to the
country as a whole.
The fear of American air strikes now serves as the glue that keeps this force
together. In the future, the presence of permanent bases would ensure that
Afghan soldiers and warlords refrain from embarking on adventures.
Furthermore an Afghanistan-NATO strategic partnership would also help prevent
ill-intentioned neighbors from openly interfering in Afghanistan's domestic
politics. Some critics suggest that a strategic partnership and Western bases
in Afghanistan might further provoke Pakistan and Iran to intensify their
meddling in Afghan affairs. But one should remember their disastrous adventures
in the 1990s, when the West effectively abandoned Afghanistan to their whims.
Their proxy wars enabled Al-Qaeda to carve out a sanctuary in the country.
Training must be stepped up
In addition, efforts to train and equip the Afghan security forces must be
dramatically stepped up. Afghanistan is a mountainous country where no ground
force can succeed unless it is supported by an effective air force.
Even with its highly trained ground forces, NATO can't withstand Taliban
ambushes in critical parts of the Afghan theater without effective air power.
How will the poorly trained Afghan forces fare?
The recently launched local police initiative should also be strengthened and
better organized. Instead of forming large militia squads, small units with the
consent of tribes should be created under the watchful eyes of the government.
It will be important to properly fund such bodies to prevent them from
devolving into marauding militias. These frontline soldiers will deny sanctuary
to the mobile forces of the Taliban.
Politics is paramount
The most important component any plan to restore stability to Afghanistan,
however, is political. Afghans should start looking for a strong president
acceptable to various ethnic and political groups and the international
community.
In a multiethnic society, the president of Afghanistan must be neutral and able
to deal with all segments of society in a fair, equal, and transparent manner.
Any efforts to rig future presidential elections or attempts to install a crony
or relative of the incumbent will prove catastrophic for the transition
process.
Coincidentally, 2014 will see both a presidential election and the final phase
of the security transition.
The president of Afghanistan should know traditional Afghan approaches to war
and peace. Modern rules of conflict resolution can only work when applied with
respect to Afghan traditions. Thus a president should be able to lead his
troops in battle and deal with political nuances in Kabul.
An Afghan leader should prove to his countrymen that he is no puppet. A
complete security handover will help the next leader to create such an
impression among Afghans, but this doesn't mean the international community
should abandon Afghanistan's leadership at this critical juncture.
A repeat abandonment of Afghanistan will undoubtedly turn into a security
nightmare for Afghans and the international community. Al-Qaeda is still alive
and watching developments in Afghanistan closely. Pakistani and Afghan
extremists immediately replaced small NATO bases in the remote regions of
eastern Kunar and Nuristan provinces earlier this year.
These regions again are becoming their strongholds. Al-Qaeda now provides
resources, training, and guidance, while Afghan and Pakistani Taliban supply
the manpower. If left unchecked, they will not remain in remote valleys.
Extremism does not recognize frontiers.
Mohammad Amin Mudaqiq is an editor with Radio Free
Afghanistan. The views expressed in this commentary are the author's own and do
not necessarily reflect those of RFE/RL
Copyright (c) 2011, RFE/RL Inc. Reprinted with the permission of
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