Constitutional chaos looms in
Nepal By Dhruba Adhikary
KATHMANDU - As Nepal nears a second
deadline for the writing of a new constitution
seen as crucial to national reconciliation, few
people are optimistic. Last year's deadline of May
28 was extended by a year due to political crises,
but there has been scant progress.
Despite
the fraught situation, and although he now
occupies a largely ceremonial chair, President Ram
Baran Yadav told this correspondent that he had an
obligation to see the process through. "Since the
interim statute has designated me as its guardian,
I am aware of its implications in a wider
context," Yadav said during an expansive
conversation in his office on May 5.
A
Constituent Assembly (CA) was elected in 2008 with
a two-year mandate to write the new constitution
following the end of a civil
war between Maoist rebels and
the state and the abolition of the 240-year-old
monarchy.
"I am grateful to the people who
have given me the highest position that this
country can offer," said Yadav.
He said it
was important that the nation was set on an
"irreversible" democratic path to salvage gains
made from a popular uprising in April 2006 that
saw the monarchy overthrown. This, he contends, is
in line with peace agreements made that year
between a seven-party alliance of parliamentary
parties (the SPA) and the Communist Party of Nepal
- Maoist (CPN-M) that ended the civil conflict.
His anxiety has visibly increased as the
leaders of rival factions in the CA intensify a
blame game over the flagging peace process - the
CPN-M and the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified
Marxist-Leninist) together won a majority of 346
seats in the 601-member assembly at 2008
elections. The main differences between the
warring political factions center on the future
form of Nepal's government - whether it should be
presidential or prime ministerial - and on an
ethnicity-based federal structure.
Yadav
is dismayed not only with political parties but
also with what he describes as a "lack of
enthusiasm from civil society groups and the
media", which are also stakeholders in the
process.
"The media are not as active as
they were when the struggle was focused on the
excesses of king [Gyanendra's] rule," he said. He
also wonders why there is so little media debate
on the possible fate of the constitution if it is
issued before cantonments housing former Maoist
combatants are dismantled.
To the Maoists,
these combatants, numbering nearly 20,000,
continue to be members of the PLA (People's
Liberation Army). Their rehabilitation and
integration with security forces, including the
Nepal Army, has been a thorny issue since the 2006
peace deal between the SPA and the Maoists.
According to the original schedule, the
matter was to be resolved within six months. The
United Nations Mission in Nepal, which had helped
supervise the cantonments together with arms,
departed in January under a political cloud. This
has raised fears of renewed conflict and doubts
over how a free and fair election could be held
while one of the contenders retains its own army.
Yadav is equally concerned over events and
trends that could affect the country's territorial
integrity, and social harmony among its 100-odd
ethnic groups.
He says the indifference of
democratic activists has led younger generations
to be increasingly lured towards a society that is
rapidly oriented more to the "radical left".
He compares this to the challenge faced by
Abraham Lincoln in the 1860s, referring to a
letter Lincoln wrote to a AG Hodges in April 1864
that underscored that the survival of a nation
took precedence over applying the law.
The
constitutional deadline is drawing closer day by
day, giving political factions less room for
maneuver. Maoist leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal (aka
Prachanda) continues to make speeches about some
kind of last-minute miracle, but many are
unconvinced.
"We are entering into a new
phase of transition ... in fact into an
emergency," former parliament speaker Daman
Dhungana told local media recently.
Dhungana, also a seasoned constitutional
lawyer, said that while granting the CA another
extension created one set of challenges, not
approving it would create another. In his opinion,
the president should immediately invite leaders of
the largest parties to a meeting to ensure they
appreciated the gravity of the situation.
Last month, United Nations secretary
general Ban Ki-moon conveyed his anxieties to
rival Nepali leaders by saying that the ongoing
peace process remained "incomplete due to
continuing differences among the parties".
"It is therefore critical that the
government, UCPN-M [Unified Communist Party of
Nepal-Maoist] and the Maoist army sustain their
cooperation and implement this long-overdue
commitment as soon as possible," said Ban.
Ban's representative in Nepal, Robert
Piper, echoed his boss' assessment. "To expect a
breakthrough in these remaining days would be
unrealistic," he said in a comment given to Asia
Times Online.
Even if a draft statute was
made ready by the coming deadline, there would not
be enough time for public consultations on all
sensitive issues enshrined therein, he added. "To
make the constitution a document broadly owned by
Nepali citizens there should be adequate space for
public debate."
President Yadav says he
has begun such initiatives. In a meeting held
early last week, he advised leaders of the three
main parties that they must do something tangible
by the week ending on May 14, so that the people
would be inclined to approve a term extension of
the CA.
Prachanda, incumbent Prime
Minister Jhalanath Khanal, president of the
CPN-UML and Sushil Koirala, president of the
Nepali Congress, are likely to be given another
nudge if the existing timeframe elapses with no
real advances on the ground.
Meanwhile,
the CA is rapidly becoming irrelevant. Public
outrage is increasing with people demanding the
return of the salaries and allowances CA members
have taken in the past three years. Since there is
no guarantee that a new constitution will ever be
written, a large section of population sees no
reason to give the existing body any extension -
even if only for six months.
A recent poll
conducted by the Nepali Times showed that over 70%
of participants were against an extension of the
assembly's tenure. It is a widely held perception
that if the leaders of the leading political
parties cannot narrow their differences in three
long years, they can't be expected to do so in an
extended timeframe.
There are options at
Yadav's disposal. He could allow the assembly to
be dissolved after May 28 and then issue a decree
creating space for a small interim cabinet that
would exist for a period of up to six months.
Elections could then be held for a body of about
100 representatives who would finally draw up the
republican constitution.
Yadav can do this
with the support of an army that has a
constitutional obligation to respect him as the
supreme commander-in-chief. Both Yadav and the
serving army chief, General Chhatra Mansingh
Gurung, were among the immediate beneficiaries of
the post-2006 political order. Yadav would not
have become head of state if the monarchy was
still around while Gurung would not lead the
national army as long as clans with royal
connections wielded real influence. They know what
is at stake if the changes of 2006 cannot be
retained.
While such a presidential step
could face legal challenges, there is little
chance the public would oppose a move aimed at
ending the ongoing chaos, anarchy, corruption and
galloping market inflation.
If the
president does not act, pro-monarchists might make
an attempt to restore the monarchy with support
from loyalist groups within the state security
apparatus. Former king Gyanendra has stayed in
Nepal, ignoring suggestions to go abroad and live
in exile. Thinking along these lines, a group of
politicians last Sunday called for a revival of
the 1990 constitution, which if restored would
automatically bring back the monarchy in its
constitutional form, along British lines.
That his why some of Yadav's close
advisors are suggesting he take a calculated risk.
While dissolving the CA may attract some criticism
from political parties, including Prachanda's,
this would not be a completely new phenomenon. The
president was dragged to the center of controversy
when he, in May 2009, prevented Prachanda, then
prime minister, from sacking the army chief
without pre-informing him. Prachanda lost his
premiership in that political skirmish.
The Maoist leadership still remains
unpredictable despite commitments to a democratic
order. Prachanda and his comrades in arms continue
to issue public threats that they would resort to
armed revolt once again if they were not allowed
to have a "people's constitution".
Dhruba Adhikary is a
Kathmandu-based journalist.
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