Page 1 of
2 Timing
is key in Pakistan-China
aerobatics By Chris Zambelis
The recent headlines have been dominated
by the progressively deteriorating relationship
between the United States and Pakistan. The
killing of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden on
Pakistani territory in May by US forces
exacerbated the widening rift and further
overshadowed the recent staging of a sensitive
military exercise involving Pakistani and Chinese
forces.
It is against this backdrop that
China's strong ties with Pakistan in the
diplomatic, economic, and military realms have
gained salience. Indeed, the timing of Pakistani
Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani's four-day visit
to China, which commenced on May 17 - the third
series of meetings between Gilani and Chinese
leaders in less than 17 months - illustrates the
extent to which
Islamabad counts on Beijing
for support during this historic low point in
US-Pakistan relations.
Rumors that
Pakistan seriously considered allowing China to
access remnants of a secret US stealth helicopter
that went down during the raid against Bin Laden,
thus allowing China a firsthand looking into the
latest stealth technology employed by the US
military - Pakistan has since agreed to return the
remnants of the helicopter to the United States -
also reflect the priority Pakistan places on
proving its worth to China.
While news of
cooperation between the armed forces of longtime
allies would normally come as no surprise, details
surrounding "Shaheen 1" ("Eagle" in Urdu) remain
scant. The exercise was composed of what both
sides acknowledged to be "operational" aerial
maneuvers involving the Pakistan Air Force (PAF)
and the People's Liberation Army Air Force
(PLAAF), held over a period of a few weeks in
March 2011.
The exercise represented the
first time PLAAF combat aircraft deployed to
Pakistan and joined alongside their Pakistani
counterparts in operational maneuvers in Pakistani
airspace. In addition to "Shaheen 1," both
countries also plan to stage joint ground
maneuvers involving the People's Liberation Army
(PLA) and its Pakistani counterpart in Pakistan
later in 2011.
The exercise also took
place against the backdrop of the 60th anniversary
of the establishment of diplomatic relations
between China and Pakistan and the recognition of
2011 by both countries as the "Year of
Pakistan-China Friendship".
China's
participation in "Shaheen 1" marks another
milestone in its limited but expanding
expeditionary military capability. Perhaps most
importantly, China's involvement in "Shaheen 1"
reflects its growing eagerness to showcase its
expeditionary capability in countries the United
States considers strategic allies [1].
Despite the current crisis in relations,
the United States continues to count Pakistan as a
vital ally. In regard to the war in Afghanistan,
for instance, Pakistan is indispensable. The main
supply line that sustains US-led North Atlantic
Treaty Organization forces in Afghanistan
originates in the port of Karachi. At the same
time, the central role of Pakistan in US
operations in Afghanistan has not precluded
Beijing from extending its hand to Islamabad.
The exercise Designed to foster
enhanced joint air capabilities and to underscore
the priority both sides place on preserving
bilateral military ties, the maneuvers executed
during "Shaheen 1" featured combat aircraft from
the PAF and PLAAF, as well as technicians and
other participants.
Specifics involving
the exercise, including the types of aircraft
deployed by both forces, the total number of
aircraft and personnel involved, the exact nature
and scope of the missions performed and the
location of the maneuvers, have not been disclosed
by either Pakistan or China.
A press
release issued by the PAF, however, did contain a
photograph of Pakistani and Chinese pilots and
other personnel participating in "Shaheen 1" dated
March 11; 13 Pakistani and 12 Chinese officers
appear in the photograph. Concerns that the PAF
may have deployed its fleet of advanced US-built
F-16 Fighting Falcons alongside PLAAF combat
aircraft likely raised concerns in Washington.
In addition to potentially exposing
sensitive US technology to Beijing, the PLAAF also
stands to gain great insights into the operating
performance of the aircraft in relation to their
own. The PAF currently boasts a fleet of 63 F-16s
of different variants (45 A/Bs and 18 C/Ds) in its
inventory and it recently entered into
negotiations with the United States for additional
planes.
The PAF's current fleet of F-16s
is also scheduled to undergo comprehensive
upgrades. Despite of the expected concerns in the
United States about the potential deployment of
F-16s during "Shaheen 1," there is no evidence to
otherwise indicate that Pakistan deployed F-16s
during the exercise [2].
The absence of
detailed official statements by Islamabad and
Beijing or other publicly available information
regarding the dynamics of "Shaheen 1" did not
prevent outside observers from making their own
estimates about what transpired during the
exercise.
A number of official photographs
showing Pakistani and Chinese pilots preparing for
flight missions and engaging in other activities
during "Shaheen 1," which circulated on websites
and online discussion forums dedicated to
Pakistani defense and foreign policy issues such
as Pakistan Air Force Falcons and Pakistan
Defense, however, elicited extensive commentary,
including among many claiming to be Pakistanis,
Chinese, Indians, or in some way affiliated to (or
at least knowledgeable of) Pakistani military
issues [3].
Some of the photographs posted
online showed Pakistani and Chinese pilots seated
inside the cockpit of what appeared to be a
Chinese-built Shenyang J-11BS air superiority
fighter. The J-11BS is regarded as an indigenous
version of Russia's Su-30 Flanker fighter series;
while relying on the Su-30's mainframe, the
aircraft is said to be equipped with
Chinese-designed and manufactured engines,
avionics, radar and weaponry.
Political
and military Implications In many
respects, "Shaheen 1" represents a continuation of
what is already a broad and multifaceted bilateral
military relationship that has been cultivated
over decades. While both Pakistan and China deny
that the exercise was designed to "target" any
third parties, aspects of the exercise, as well as
its timing, illuminate the trajectory of wider
trends that are having far-reaching geopolitical
impacts on South and East Asia. In this context,
the implications of "Shaheen 1" are best
understood in political as well as military
strategic terms.
The timing of "Shaheen 1"
must be considered against the background of the
current poor state of US-Pakistan relations.
Pakistan has watched nervously as the United
States expanded its ties with India in recent
years while the latter continues to make
impressive inroads into Afghanistan, a country
Pakistan sees as vital to its concept of strategic
depth and its overall security posture relative to
its rival India.
Bin Laden's presence and
subsequent death in Pakistan - and the likely
existence of a support network within the echelons
of state power that allowed him to remain there -
adds another layer of complexity to Pakistan's
predicament. Losing faith in the durability of its
alliance with the United States, an increasingly
insecure Pakistan feels compelled to act;
Islamabad may have once calculated that navigating
a fine line between Beijing and Washington
represented the most prudent path to protect its
national interests, but a tilt away from the
United States and toward China may prove more
beneficial down the line.
The symbolism
underlying Islamabad's willingness to host Chinese
combat aircraft on its territory in the current
political climate was clear. Such a bold measure
is indicative of China's evolution in recent years
and the confidence it has nurtured among its
allies as both a reliable and credible partner.
Pakistan sees China as a country that delivers on
its promises, an "all-weather friend," according
to Gilani.
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
