Uzbek militants carve north Afghan
niche By Abubakar Siddique
Northern Afghanistan, for years seen as a
bedrock of stability amid the chaos of war, is
being pushed further into turmoil with every kill
and every capture.
A deadly attack on the
offices of the governor of northern Takhar
province on May 28 provided a window into the
transformation that is taking place in the north.
Killed in the attack were the Afghan national
police commander, General Mohammad Daud Daud, and
the province's police chief. Takhar's governor and
a German general were wounded.
When Afghan
and Western forces claimed to have captured an
Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) recruit this
month, a
worrying trend was exposed
when international forces linked him to the Takhar
attack.
Rising violence, the recruitment
of locals and the adoption of sophisticated
techniques all showcase the extent to which the
IMU has made inroads into ethnic Uzbek communities
- an important minority in the multicultural
region. With the entrance of the IMU comes the
arrival of the Taliban-led insurgency,
highlighting the groups' strengthening alliances.
The killing of Daud, one of the government
forces' more charismatic leaders, is the
continuation of a string of assassinations of
senior government figures, and serves as a blow to
the North Atlantic Treaty Organization
(NATO)-Afghan government offensive against the
Taliban.
If left unchecked, observers
warn, alliances between the al-Qaeda-linked IMU
and the Taliban could not only destabilize
northern Afghanistan but establish it as a
launching pad for attacks across Central Asia and
beyond.
Religious ideology Mohammad Asim, a former lawmaker from the
northern Baghlan province, says that the IMU has
already successfully carved out a niche for itself
in northern Afghanistan. Their ultimate aim, he
says, is to build a base for operations across
Central Asia, but they are also showing a
willingness to fight against Afghan and
international forces in the region.
"They
have created some influence among the Uzbeks
living in these [northern] regions. Some of their
cadres [and leaders] have been killed in
operations by the international forces. In any
case, there are people related to them here who
are trying hard to continue underground
activities," Asim said.
Drawing on his
experience as a field commander against the Soviet
occupation in the 1980s, Asim considers the
Taliban, the IMU, and other groups to be primarily
motivated by their religious ideology. They care
less about ethnic affiliations, he says, but
points out that the Taliban and IMU do exploit
ethnic solidarity to network and expand into new
regions.
Just a few years ago, a Taliban
comeback in the region would have been considered
unthinkable. But the Taliban have crept back with
the help of locals, including ethnic Uzbek IMU
recruits who have worked hard to win over allies
in remote Uzbek villages.
The Taliban's
relationship with the IMU dates back to the late
1990s, when the Taliban hosted the Central Asian
militants in response to Tashkent's support for
ethnic Uzbek warlord General Abdul Rashid Dostum,
according to senior Taliban leaders who have since
reconciled with Kabul.
Today, the two
enjoy a symbiotic relationship. While Pashtun
youth still make up the majority of recruits for
the Taliban across Afghanistan, the group's ties
to the IMU - whose ranks are filled with Sunni
Muslims of Central Asian origin - raises its
standing among ethnic Uzbeks, Tajiks and Turkmen,
as well as other non-Pashtun communities in
northern Afghanistan.
The Taliban's
alliance with the IMU, meanwhile, allows the IMU
small sanctuaries in remote regions along
Afghanistan's northern border, providing it with
an opportunity to train fresh recruits and putting
it in a position to carry out strikes in
neighboring Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and
Tajikistan.
Afghan observers say that
Uzbek communities are particularly vulnerable to
IMU infiltration because of their increasingly
marginal political role. Numbering around 2.5
million out of Afghanistan's nearly 30 million
people, the Uzbeks are Afghanistan's largest
Turkic group spread across nine northern
provinces.
But compared to their Pashtun,
Tajik and Hazarah neighbors they have a marginal
political role because of a lack of unified
leadership. Abdul Rashid Dostum, the former
communist general who once dominated the region,
has lost popular appeal and has proved to be an
inept leader.
Such conditions presented an
opening to the extremists. Former Afghan deputy
defense minister General Attiqullah Baryalai says
that the IMU began building its networks in
northern Afghanistan after the killing of its
erstwhile leader, Tahir Yuldash, in a US drone
attack in western Pakistan in 2009. He says that
the group has also stepped up its activities in
Central Asia, which remains its ultimate prize.
Pakistan connection Baryalai
says that three factors helped the IMU to
establish footholds in northern Afghanistan's
scattered Uzbek communities. "The Uzbek people
feel that they are marginalized today and nobody
among the current [Afghan] government leaders
represents them. Secondly, many influential
[Uzbek] former government officials and mujahideen
and anti-Taliban leaders have been relegated to
oblivion, which makes them upset with the
government [and prevents them from cooperating
with it]," Baryalai said.
"The third
reason is the emergence of radical youth who were
educated in Pakistani madrassas."
The connection with Pakistan is important
because the IMU underwent a transformation during
its decade-long refuge in the country's western
tribal region. It drew the IMU closer to
al-Qaeda's leadership, making it a lead
organization for recruiting across the Turkic
world and north Caucasus. It also grew closer to
Pakistani extremist organizations, many of which
now serve as al-Qaeda's military arm and are
considerably more sophisticated than previous
generations.
This makeover is on display
in northern Afghanistan. Analyst Waheed Mozhdah
says that the Taliban and IMU have infiltrated
government forces in northern Afghanistan, which
helps them in pulling off sophisticated attacks
such as the one on May 28. He says that government
corruption and inefficiency pushes disgruntled
youth of the region into the hands of the
extremists.
"The real problem [that needs
to be addressed] is not that the extremists are
[militarily] strengthening every day. Instead, it
is necessary to focus on the conditions, which
push people to join them. If killing the
terrorists remains the only aim, then thousands
[of new recruits] will replace the terrorists
killed," Mozhdah said.
Mohammad Asim, the
former politician from Baghlan, says that the
instability in the north means it will be
unsuitable as a testing ground for Afghan forces.
The state's fledgling police and security bodies
are slated to take over security responsibilities
of parts of some northern regions in July. Nine
provinces in the north are being eyed as the first
to fall under complete Afghan responsibility as
US/NATO forces draw down with the goal of complete
withdrawal by 2014.
Former defense
official Barayalai remains unbowed despite the
difficulties. He believes the security situation
in northern Afghanistan is not an unsolvable
problem. "The government has to move ahead with an
informed and proper solution," he concludes.
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