Page 1 of
2 A summit
in Tehran trumps the US By M K
Bhadrakumar
Almost directly in proportion
to the nosedive in Washington's ties with its
allies in Kabul and Islamabad, Iran has stepped up
its political and diplomatic activity over the
Afghan problem and the regional situation. Tehran
estimates that the United States' relations with
the Afghan and Pakistani governments have suffered
a serious setback and a swift recovery is
unlikely.
Thus, a window of opportunity
has opened for Tehran to roll back the 10-year
ascendancy of the US in the geopolitics of the
region. Tehran is determined not to miss the
opportunity.
The immediate focus is on
somehow torpedoing the US's plans to establish
military bases in Afghanistan and expand into the
strategically vital Central Asian region, while
also outflanking Iran
in the east. The Iranian
political and diplomatic thrust comes at a time
when US-Afghan differences have surfaced during
the negotiations, which lately spilled into the
public domain.
But, Tehran also sees this
as a high-stakes game with much wider
ramifications than a matter of frustrating the US
plans on military bases. Tehran's objective will
be to scatter the cordon of the US-Saudi-Israeli
alliance in the wake of the upheaval in the Middle
East.
Afghanistan, after all, becomes part
of the Greater Middle East and Pakistan has been a
long-time ally of the US and Saudi Arabia and
together the three countries - Iran, Pakistan and
Afghanistan - become a strategic hub of immense
significance to the geopolitics of a vast region
stretching from the Levant to the Ferghana Valley.
To be sure, Tehran's aim will be to forge
regional unity with Kabul and Islamabad on the
basis of their shared concerns and interests
vis-a-vis US regional policies.
Iranian
efforts will get a boost this week with the visits
by the Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari and
President Hamid Karzai to Tehran to participate in
the international conference on terrorism at the
invitation of the Iranian president Mahmud
Ahmadinejad. The conference is scheduled for on
June 25-26, but Zardari is arriving on a two-day
visit on Thursday.
The fact that Zardari
and Karzai are attending a conference on terrorism
hosted by Iran at this point in time is by itself
a significant indicator of the way winds are
blowing currently in regional politics. The Saudi
Arabian government reportedly made a diplomatic
demarche with Pakistan, suggesting it should
ignore the Tehran conference and instead attend a
similar conclave on terrorism that it proposes to
convene shortly in Riyadh.
The US will
also be highly displeased with Karzai's decision
to stand shoulder to shoulder with Iran at this
juncture on the "war on terror". It knocks the
bottom out of the US's contention that Iran
foments terrorism. Zardari is taking a delegation
of ministers that includes Interior Minister
Rehman Malik, Minister for Oil and Natural
Resources Asim Hussain and Minister for Water and
Power Syed Naveed Qamar.
The Iranian media
reported that Zardari's talks will cover the
Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project, which is
strongly opposed by the US, and that a "decisive
step for the execution of the already delayed
project" can be expected during his visit. Iran
has already completed the construction of 1,000
kilometers of the pipeline out of the 1,100
kilometers portion on Iranian soil.
Iran
has also proposed that an electricity transmission
network be built next to the pipeline, connecting
the electricity grid of Iran with that of
Pakistan. Additionally, Iran has offered to sell
1,000 megawatts hours of electricity to Pakistan
at a subsidized rate.
'Attempts to
bypass' Tehran is making an all-out
attempt to impart a new dynamic to its bilateral
ties with Pakistan. Tehran traditionally harbored
a sense of frustration over the US-Pakistan
alliance. Ahmadinejad said recently that Tehran is
in possession of "specific evidence" to the effect
that the US is planning to seize Pakistan's
nuclear weapons.
Indeed, Iranian
intelligence is very active in both Afghanistan
and Pakistan, given the US military presence and
US support for the terrorist group Jundallah which
foments violence in the Sistan-Balochistan region
in eastern Iran bordering Pakistan. Tehran has an
intelligence sharing mechanism at the bilateral
level with Pakistan and most certainly Malik will
be discussing ways and means of strengthening the
arrangement. Pakistan can help Iran counter
Jundallah while Iran can share intelligence
regarding the US' covert activities on Pakistani
soil.
Iran seems to share the estimation
by Russia and China that Pakistani foreign policy
is on a course correction of reducing Islamabad's
political, economic and military dependence on the
US.
Equally, Tehran factors in that the US
is keeping both Islamabad and Kabul at arm's
length over its dealings with the Taliban and is
adopting a method of sharing information with
these key partners on a need-to-know basis.
Last Saturday, Karzai utilized a
nationwide address to lash out at the US to the
extent of exposing that US is already holding
direct talks with the Taliban. Significantly,
Pakistan swiftly took the cue from Karzai and made
a strong demarche in the same regard with the
Americans on Monday.
Senior Pakistani
officials have reportedly conveyed concerns to
visiting US deputy special representative Frank
Ruggiero about Washington's "attempts to bypass"
Islamabad and to deliberately keep Pakistan at bay
about its efforts to seek a peace deal with the
Taliban ahead of the phased withdrawal from
Afghanistan.
The statement issued by the
Pakistani Foreign Ministry after talks between
State Minister Foreign Affairs Hina Rabbani Khar
and Ruggiero in Islamabad on Monday said: "The
minister underscored the importance of clarity and
strategic coherence as well as transparency to
facilitate the Afghan people and the Afghan
government in the process for peace and
reconciliation."
The Pakistani newspaper
Tribune quoted a Pakistani diplomat, who is posted
in Kabul, as alleging that Islamabad is being kept
in the dark by the US over its recent contacts
with the Taliban. "We do know that some meetings
have taken place between the US officials and the
Afghan Taliban in Germany and Qatar. It seems
Pakistan is being deliberately kept out by the US
to minimize our role in future political
dispensation of Afghanistan," he insisted.
Again, Dawn newspaper quoted an unnamed
Pakistani officials as saying, "On one hand they
[the Americans] are talking to Mullah Omar's aide,
but on the other the Taliban leader is on the list
of the five men that they [the Americans] want to
be taken out," asking acerbically if there could
be space in the US's political dialogue for the
Haqqani network as well.
However, it will
be a rush to judgment to conclude that Islamabad
and Kabul are coordinating their opposition to the
US. The Afghan-Pakistan relationship remains
highly problematic, the trust deficit is
substantial and a radical improvement in the
climate of relations proved elusive.
In
fact, border skirmishes have increased in
frequency. To what extent the US and North
Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) are fueling
these tensions as part of the concerted effort to
"pressure" Pakistan remains unclear. Clearly, a
genuine meeting of minds between Karzai and
Islamabad cannot materialize so long as these
subterranean tensions keep erupting on the
Afghan-border region involving the Pakistani
military and the Afghan forces.
Maybe,
Tehran can lend a hand to sort out these tensions.
To be sure, Iran has a strong interest at this
point in bringing Afghanistan and Pakistan closer
together in a purposive working relationship.
Iranian Defense minister Ahmed Vahidi, who
visited Kabul last week, had a substantive meeting
with the former Northern Alliance strong man and
current vice president, Mohammed Fahim. Vahidi
told Fahim, "The great and brave nation of
Afghanistan is capable of establishing its
security in the best possible form without the
interference of the trans-regional forces [read
the US and NATO]." Vahidi told his Iranian
counterpart Abdulrahim Wardak, "Their [the US]
presence hinders materialization of the will of
the great, hard-working and resolute nation of
Afghanistan and will cause discord, tension and
insecurity and waste of the country's
capital."
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