Petraeus burnishes Afghan
legacy By M K Bhadrakumar
David Petraeus, United States commander in
Afghanistan, is set to beat the historic record of
Douglas MacArthur by two-and-a-half years. That's
the time it took for General MacArthur to fulfill
the vow "I shall return", which he made when
leaving the Philippine Islands in March 1942.
Petraeus will re-enter the war zone almost
overnight following his departure from Afghanistan
this month. As soon as he arrives in Langley,
Virginia to lead the Central Intelligence Agency
(CIA), Petraeus will don civvies and, figuratively
speaking, head straight for the Hindu Kush.
Petraeus is leaving Afghanistan as a
dissatisfied general who failed to win his last
war. He couldn't achieve the turnaround he managed
in Iraq and his legacy in Afghanistan is
unfinished and
tantamount to just about
staving off defeat. No general would want that on
his record.
Petraeus' final legacy,
however, is still to be made. The US counter
terrorism strategy unveiled by White House adviser
John Brennan last Wednesday shifts the focus to
eliminating terrorists through sophisticated
military technology and means without having to
commit substantial troops on the ground.
Therefore, Petraeus made a hugely
significant statement on Monday, which he
carefully timed for his last Fourth of July in
uniform. He said the focus of the Afghan war will
shift in the upcoming months from Taliban
strongholds in the south to the porous eastern
border with Pakistan where al-Qaeda affiliates and
a range of militant groups presently hold sway.
He went on to explain: "It's a shift of
intelligence assets. It's a shift of armed and
lift helicopters and perhaps the shift of some
relatively small coalition forces on the ground
and substantial Afghan forces on the ground."
Petraeus claimed the strategy has evolved from the
previous phase of military operations under his
command.
Safe havens Indeed,
the shift actually began on February 15 - roughly
three weeks into the detention of the ace US
operative Raymond Davis by the Pakistani security
agencies in Lahore - when the coalition forces
summarily began a process of withdrawing from
combat positions in the Pech valley in the eastern
Afghan province of Kunar bordering Pakistan. The
US claimed at that time that the withdrawal was
part of a plan to shift the forces to more
populated areas; it was completed over the next
two months.
Several Afghan army units
deployed in Kunar also moved out at the same time.
Unsurprisingly, various insurgent groups almost
instantaneously moved into the security vacuum.
They included both Afghani and Pakistani Taliban,
Hizb-i-Islami, Lashkar-e-Taiba and various
al-Qaeda affiliates. Suffice to say, by a curious
coincidence, within a few weeks of the release of
Davis in end-March, a "low-intensity war" began
across the Durand Line that separates Afghanistan
and Pakistan.
Militant groups using Kunar
as safe haven began attacking Pakistani security
forces across the border. Pakistan complained that
in cross-border attacks, militants killed 56
Pakistani paramilitary soldiers and tribal police
and injured 81 personnel in June alone. In turn,
the Afghan Interior Ministry says nearly 800
rockets have been fired since early June, killing
12 women and girls and 30 men. Some 55 have been
wounded, and 120 houses destroyed.
Pashtun
sentiments are turning against Pakistan. There
have been public demonstrations in Asadabad,
capital of Kunar. A top Afghan police general in
Asadabad offered his resignation over the
government's response to the attacks. A prominent
parliamentarian from Pashtun-dominated Nangarhar
province, Fraidoon Momand, called on President
Hamid Karzai to cut ties with Pakistan "because
its non-stop shells have killed many innocent
civilians".
The anger among Afghan
Pashtuns is bound to have its resonance among
Pashtuns inside Pakistan and a vicious cycle of
hostilities could begin. On Sunday, over 300
militants crossed into Pakistan and attacked a
Pakistani checkpost, the sixth cross-border attack
in a month. The Pakistani army spokesman
Major-General Attar Abbas has been quoted as
saying, "For quite some time we have been
highlighting that there are safe havens across the
border. Something should be done about these."
Interestingly, a Voice of America report
highlighted the grave implications of the
situation on Monday:
"Contributing to the tension is that
the border - the so-called Durand Line - has
been disputed since its creation in the 19th
century by British rulers. Ethnic tribes that
still hold on to the dream of a unified Pashtun
nation refuse to recognize what they call an
'arbitrary line'."
But many village
elders in the area, who are also ethnic
Pashtuns, are becoming increasingly angry with
the attacks and warn they could take up arms
against Pakistan if it continues."
'Asymmetrical' war lasting years
Essentially speaking, the US and Afghan
force withdrawal in Pech has pitted the Afghan
militant groups against the Pakistani forces
across the Durand Line in an "asymmetrical" war.
The Pakistani military is obviously annoyed that
the US and Afghan forces withdrew just like that
and are simply standing by, watching the
fireworks.
Karzai has adopted a selective
approach. He is raising the matter at the
political and diplomatic level with Pakistan but
has ordered the Afghan forces not to fire in
response to the shelling from Pakistan. Clearly,
he refuses to give Pakistan an excuse to stage a
"hot pursuit" against the insurgent groups based
in Kunar. But to be fair to the Kabul government,
it has little or no control over the border areas.
The rising curve of the "low-intensity
war" has alarmed the Pakistani military
leadership. Pakistan began troop deployments at
the weekend in the strategic Kurram Agency, which
is an escape route for militants from North
Waziristan to the Tora Bora mountains. A major
operation is getting underway involving artillery
and air power. But it is easier said than done.
One of Pakistan's most perceptive commentators on
the Afghan problem, Rahimullah Yusufzai wrote on
Tuesday:
The lack of government control in
the border areas across the Durand Line in both
Afghanistan and Pakistan has enabled the
militants to set up bases and operate with
impunity ... The cross-border raids in Pakistani
territory and the retaliatory strikes by
Pakistan's security forces have caused tension
on the border and inflamed passions,
particularly in Afghanistan ... However,
large-scale military actions also cause civilian
deaths, displacement and economic losses. Around
4,000 families have already been uprooted in
Kurram Agency, adding to the number of
internally displaced persons from South
Waziristan, Mohmand, Bajaur and other places
waiting to be compensated and rehabilitated ...
The long conflict facing Pakistan has created
problems that will take years to
resolve.
The big question is whether
the looming crisis will prompt Pakistan into
comprehensive rethink on its Afghan policy.
Without doubt, the fundamental contradiction in
the Pakistani policy is surging - making a
distinction between the "good" Taliban and "bad"
Taliban. The nexus between the two and their
mutual support is coming out starkly into the open
across the tribal agencies on the Durand Line.
Pakistan is truly becoming a victim of terrorism.
The Pakistani policy objective of placing
its "strategic assets" in power in Kabul once the
US forces withdraw increasingly seems a chimera
even as its military gets bogged down in a Pashtun
quagmire on the Durand Line. As a leading
newspaper, Daily Times, commented, "Pakistan's
dual policy towards the Taliban can unravel the
whole game plan for which Pakistan exposed its
land and people to grave risks, whose diminishing
returns and serious damage are becoming apparent
now."
To be sure, this is a curious turn
to the Afghan endgame. How much of this is a
brainchild of Petraeus and how much is due to
fortuitous circumstances is a matter best left to
future military historians to weigh. For the
present, Pakistani military desperately needs some
help from the coalition forces across the border
in Afghanistan.
That is where Petraeus'
"offer" to shift the locus of the war to the east
would come as a relief to Pakistan. But Petraeus
said the shift would only occur through a period
of months - most likely after the current
"fighting season". Which means that Pakistani
forces will be facing the music in the near term.
What would interest the US most is whether
under the immense pressure building up along the
Durand Line, Pakistan would finally do what
Washington always wanted it to do - commence
military operations in North Waziristan. In
political terms, Pakistani military's
preoccupation with the security of the Durand Line
gives the US the respite to accelerate its direct
talks with the Taliban leadership.
Beyond
all that, of course, lies the US wish list for the
Pakistani military - hand over Taliban chief
Mullah Omar politically and decimate the Haqqani
network militarily. Indeed, from his cabin in
Langley, Petraeus will be closely monitoring the
"pilgrim's progress" and choreographing his own
final legacy in the Afghan war.
Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar was a
career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service. His
assignments included the Soviet Union, South
Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan,
Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey.
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