ISLAMABAD - Pakistan-United States
military ties have touched their lowest ebb since
the September 11, 2001, terror attacks on the US,
mainly because of the endless American drone
campaign in the tribal areas of Pakistan that has
killed 2,587 people, including 58 high-value
al-Qaeda and Taliban targets, in 256 strikes
between June 2004 and June 2011.
This
standoff is set to affect the battle against
Islamic militancy in the region in a big way.
The spat sank to a new level on Sunday
when White House chief of staff William Daley
confirmed that the Barack Obama administration had
held back on a payment of US$800 million - part of
$2 billion in annual security aid to Pakistan - over
Islamabad's decision to cut
back in US military trainers and to restrict visas
for US personnel.
A Pakistan military
spokesman, Major General Athar Abbas, responded on
Monday that "we can conduct our operations without
external support. The tribal operations won't be
affected."
Tensions were already running
high following comments by the top military
commander in the US, Admiral Mike Mullen, that
Pakistan "sanctioned" the killing of Syed Saleem
Shahzad, the Pakistani bureau chief of Asia Times
Online whose tortured body was found on May 31. A
Pakistan government spokesman dismissed the
accusation as "extremely irresponsible".
In the aftermath of the covert Abbottabad
operation on May 2 by American SEALs that killed
al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, Pakistani
military authorities, who earlier had been
hand-in-glove with their American counterparts on
the issue of drone attacks, asked the US military
leadership to immediately stop the deadly campaign
- "the core irritant" between the countries.
The Americans simply rejected the
Pakistani demand, saying the drone attacks were an
integral part of the "war against terror" that
seeks to defeat the Taliban and al-Qaeda-linked
militants hiding in the Federally Administered
Tribal Areas (FATA) along the Afghan border in the
northwest of Pakistan.
In an indication of
the changed mood, Pakistan's army chief, General
Ashfaq Kiani, recently rejected US claims that
there existed some private agreements between the
two countries on drone hits and American
intelligence activities in Pakistan.
Pakistan's military leaders and
intelligence establishment were buffeted and
embarrassed by being kept in the dark for months
as the US closed in on Bin Laden's bolt hole, and
they came in for some stinging criticism.
While the Inter-Services Intelligence
(ISI) supposedly had no idea that the world's most
wanted terrorist was living in a house next to
Pakistan's best-guarded military academy, the army
and air force were equally clueless about American
stealth helicopters having already intruded into
Abbottabad to conduct the 45-minute long
"Operation Geronimo" to get Bin Laden.
Pakistan's military leaders, who hold the
real power over matters of national security,
subsequently decided to stop sharing any further
intelligence information with the US Central
Intelligence Agency (CIA) as a protest against the
unilateral Abbottabad raid.
They demanded
firm assurances by the US that it would not
undertake any further unilateral military action
on Pakistani soil, and they presented a list of
conditions to their US counterparts with the
message that their acceptance was a prerequisite
for the continuation of anti-terrorism cooperation
between Pakistan and the United States. One such
condition was that the US must observe strict
limits on the use of drone strikes and the number
of American military and intelligence personnel in
the country.
In a recent meeting with the
CIA's deputy director, Michael Morrell, ISI chief
Lieutenant General Ahmed Shuja Pasha is reported
to have warned the US that Pakistan would be
forced to respond if the US did not come up with a
strategy to stop the drone strikes and reduce the
number of American spies operating in Pakistan.
These demands were taken as a reaction to
US military and intelligence programs that had
gone well beyond what the Pakistani authorities
had agreed to with the Americans in the past. But
the Americans made it clear that they would not
stop the drone campaign in the tribal areas.
In fact, the US intensified raids,
carrying out 12 strikes in the tribal areas in
June alone - the highest monthly total of the
year. Between January 1 and June 30, the CIA-run
predators carried out 42 attacks in the tribal
areas, killing 358 people. The strikes were as
follows: nine in January, three in February, seven
in March, two in April, seven in May and 12 in
June. The previous four months, from September to
December 2010, averaged almost 16 strikes per
month (21 in September, 16 in October, 14 in
November and 12 strikes in December 2011).
In the latest episode in the quarrel over
the drone campaign, the decision-makers in general
headquarters in Rawalpindi and at the Pentagon
have locked horns over the use of an air base,
Shamsi, in the province of Balochistan, which has
been used in the past by the CIA to launch drone
attacks in the tribal areas.
Pakistan's
Defense Minister Ahmed Mukhtar announced on June
29 that his government had asked the US to stop
using Shamsi for the attacks and vacate the
facility. Mukhtar told Reuters, "We have been
talking to them [Americans] on the issue for some
time. But after May 2, we told them again. When
the American forces do not operate from the Shamsi
base, no drone attacks will be carried out."
The Americans were quick to rebuff the
Pakistani demand. In less than 24 hours, a senior
US official in Washington told Reuters that no US
personnel had left Shamsi and there were no plans
for them to do so. "The United States plans to
keep using the Shamsi airstrip for non-lethal
drone flights against militants near the
Afghanistan border. The facility remains fully
operational and supports American
counter-terrorism operations in Pakistan," Reuters
quoted the official as having said on July 6.
The drone attacks are carried out by the
CIA's Special Activities Division, which has made
a series of attacks on targets in northwest
Pakistan. These strikes have increased
substantially under President Barack Obama, with
the drones targeting top al-Qaeda leaders, its
external operations network, and Afghan and
Pakistani Taliban leaders and fighters hiding in
the FATA areas. The Americans ramped up the number
of drone strikes in July 2008, and have continued
to regularly hit at targets inside Pakistan since
then.
In his book In the Line of
Fire, published in September 2006, Pakistan's
former military ruler General Pervez Musharraf,
who was ruling the roost at that time, wrote:
How could we allow the US blanket
over-flight and landing rights without
jeopardizing our strategic assets? I offered
only a narrow flight corridor that was far from
any sensitive Pakistani areas. Neither could we
give the United States use of Pakistan's naval
ports, air bases, and strategic locations on
borders. We refused to give any naval ports or
fighter aircraft bases to the United States. We
allowed the US only two bases - Shamsi in
Balochistan and Jacobabad in Sindh - and that
too only for logistics and aircraft recovery. No
attack could be launched from there. We gave no
blanket permission [to the US] for
anything.
However, three years later,
in an interview on December 4, 2010, Musharraf
admitted that he had actually allowed the US to
carry out drone surveillance inside Pakistan's
territory.
Musharraf said in the interview
in London:
We wanted intelligence; we wanted
the US to locate targets. It was only a general
kind of carpet agreement with the United States,
and surveillance was allowed on a case-to-case
basis. Once we located the targets, we would
decide on the method of striking, either by
helicopter gunship or some other way. But that
was a decision which was left to
us.
Musharraf's critics say his
attempt to minimize the blame by saying that his
permission was restricted to "surveillance" and
that too for the benefit of Pakistan forces sounds
feeble given the fact that he did nothing when the
drones started violating this "carpet agreement".
Following Musharraf's departure as army
chief in November 2007 (he stepped down from the
presidency in August 2008) he was succeeded by
Kiani. A cable sent by the then-US ambassador,
Anne Patterson, on February 11, 2008, and made
public by the Pakistani English newspaper Dawn,
provided confirmation that the US drone strikes
program within Pakistan had more than just tacit
acceptance of the country's top military brass,
despite public posturing to the contrary.
During a meeting with US Central Command
chief Admiral William J Fallon (on January 22,
2008), Kiani requested the Americans to provide
"continuous Predator coverage of the conflict area
in South Waziristan" where the army was conducting
operations against militants.
The American
account of Kiani's request for "Predator coverage"
does not make clear if mere air surveillance was
being requested or missile-armed drones were being
sought. Reaction to the request suggests the
latter. According to the report of the meeting
sent to Washington by Patterson, Fallon "regretted
that he did not have the assets to support this
request" but offered trained US Marines (known as
joint terminal attack controllers - JTACs) to
coordinate air strikes for Pakistan's infantry
forces on ground. But Kiani "demurred" on the
offer, pointing out that having American soldiers
on the ground "would not be politically
acceptable".
In another meeting with
Admiral Mullen on March 4, 2008, Kiani was
reportedly asked for his help "in approving a
third restricted operating zone for US aircraft
over the FATA". The American request - detailed in
a cable sent from the US Embassy in Islamabad on
March 24, 2008 - clearly indicates that two
"corridors" for US drones had already been
approved.
In yet another secret cable sent
on October 9, 2009, and published recently by
WikiLeaks, Patterson reports that the US military
support to the Pakistan army's 11th Corps
operations in South Waziristan would "be at the
division level and would include a live downlink
of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) full motion
video".
In a cable dated February 19,
2009, Patterson sends talking points to Washington
ahead of a week-long visit to the US by Kiani.
Referring to drone strikes, she writes, "Kiani
knows full well that the strikes have been precise
(creating few civilian casualties) and targeted
primarily at foreign fighters in the Waziristan
region."
But Kiani had the audacity to
claim on May 21, 2011, while addressing the
National Defense University, that there existed no
agreement between Pakistan and the United States
regarding drone attacks, and that they should be
stopped immediately.
Such contradictions
surrounding drone attacks are not surprising as
many in Pakistan are aware of the state's
complicity in such strikes. WikiLeaks cables have
already revealed how some Pakistani politicians
told senior US officials that they would publicly
make a noise about the drone attacks while in
practice turning a blind eye.
While the
Pakistani military and intelligence establishments
are afraid of a right-wing backlash by admitting
to their complicity in the drone strikes,
right-wing religious parties are continuing their
protests against the strikes.
On the other
hand, the Americans are determined to go ahead
with their drone campaign, saying over 2,000
al-Qaeda and Taliban militants are still present
in the Pakistan tribal belt alone, from where they
launch cross-border ambushes in Afghanistan.
Therefore, the Obama administration seems
justified in its drone campaign that has wiped out
over four dozen high value al-Qaeda and Taliban
targets inside Pakistan.
The utility of
drones in eliminating some of the most wanted
terrorists was admitted recently by the officer in
charge of Pakistani troops in North Waziristan,
General Officer Commanding of 7-Division, Major
General Ghayur Mehmood. Addressing a news
conference in the Mirali area of North Waziristan
on March 9, the two-star major general said:
Myths and rumors about American
predator strikes and the casualty figures are
many, but it's a reality that many of those
being killed in these strikes are hardcore
elements, a sizeable number of them foreigners.
Yes, there are a few civilian casualties in
precision strikes, but a majority of those
eliminated are al-Qaeda and Taliban-linked
terrorists, including foreign elements. Between
2007 and 2011, 164 predator strikes had been
carried out, killing over 964 terrorists. Of
those killed, 793 were locals and 171
foreigners.
It remains a fact that
top Pakistani Taliban and al-Qaeda commanders like
Nek Mohammad, Baitullah Mehsud, Qari Mohammad
Zafar, Qari Hussain Mehsud, Mustafa Abu Yazid and
several others have been killed US drones as the
Pakistan army couldn't eliminate them despite
carrying out operations in their mountainous
strongholds.
Amir Mir is a
senior Pakistani journalist and the author of
several books on the subject of militant Islam and
terrorism, the latest being The Bhutto murder
trail: From Waziristan to GHQ.
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