The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (Pakistan Taliban - TTP) seems to be slowly
disintegrating as various commanders try to pull it in different directions.
A clear indication of this process came when the TTP commander in Kurram
Agency, Fazal Saeed Haqqani, announced that his group had seceded from the TTP.
Fazal Saeed Haqqani also announced the formation of a new group called
Tehrik-e-Taliban Islami Pakistan (TTIP). Haqqani said his group was not happy
with the TTP's policy of attacking civilian targets, a major reason for the
split.
However, Haqqani and his group have been involved in the murders of innocent
Shi'ites. In the very first statement to
dissociate his new group from the TTP, Haqqani announced he would not carry out
any attacks on the Pakistani security forces. He also announced that the United
States was the TTIP's "main enemy".
The action of Fazal Saeed Haqqani has completely eliminated the TTP from Kurram
Agency, as Haqqani vowed that he would not allow the TTP to operate there: "It
is my area and I will ensure that no locals or outsiders oppose our policies
and create problems for us in Kurram Valley."
Like Maulvi Nazir and Hafiz Gul Bahadur, Fazal Saeed Haqqani is closely allied
with the Haqqani network in Afghanistan, which desperately needed a foothold in
Kurram Agency and which only Fazal Saeed Haqqani could provide. Jalaluddin
Haqqani along with his son Sirajuddin lead the Haqqani network, which is based
in the North Waziristan tribal area. It is considered one of the biggest
threats to foreign forces in Afghanistan.
According to Mansur Khan Mehsud of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas'
research center, Fazal Saeed Haqqani is occupying a portion of the main road,
the Thall-Parachinar road, connecting Kurram Agency with the rest of the
country. While still a TTP commander, Fazal Saeed Haqqani did not allow
Shi'ites residents to use that road.
Consequently, they had to go to Afghanistan first to go to other parts of
Pakistan. [1] With Fazal Saeed Haqqani in charge of that road, the Haqqani
network and other Taliban militants can use Kurram Agency as their base to
carry out attacks inside Afghanistan or to provide sanctuary. [2]
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces in Afghanistan identified the
Haqqani network as the group responsible for a brazen attack using nine suicide
bombers against Kabul's luxury Intercontinental Hotel on June 28 that killed 20
people, including the suicide bombers.
Shortly afterward, the Haqqani network suffered a major blow when NATO troops
and Afghan Special Forces mounted a raid on one of its training camps in
Afghanistan's Paktika province. The July 20-22 operation killed more than 50
insurgents in a base said to be used as a staging point for Haqqani network and
foreign fighters. A large stockpile of arms was seized in the operation, which
NATO sources said was based on intelligence provided by disenchanted
insurgents.
Nevertheless, Fazal Saeed Haqqani's rebellion against the TTP has immensely
strengthened the Haqqani network while weakening the TTP. According to one
report, TTP commander Hakimullah Mehsud has become more and more isolated over
the past year. On June 27, he suffered a setback when unknown persons killed
Shakirullah Shakir, a spokesman for the Fidayeen-e-Islam (suicide-bombing) wing
of the TTP.
Shakirullah was to replace Qari Hussain Mehsud, who was killed in an October
2010 drone strike and was known as Ustad-e-Fidayeen (master - or teacher- of
the suicide bombers).
Commander Tariq Afridi's Taliban group in Darra Adamkhel and Khalid Omar's
Mohmand group are already operating independently of the TTP. Lashkar-e-Islam
in Khyber Agency, led by Mangal Bagh, is pro-army and does not accept TTP
patronage.
The TTP breakup is a success for Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence, which
has been working for some months to deliver Kurram Agency to the Haqqani
network so that it could operate more freely in view of the emerging regional
scenario. Distrust among TTP militants seems to be growing. According to
another report, Hakimullah Mehsud and his deputy Waliur Rehman rarely meet;
when they do, they do not meet alone and only after making sure neither of them
is carrying arms.
Fazal Saeed rebelled against the TTP on the eve of the military operation that
started on July 3. Army troops moved into Kurram Agency from the town of Sadda
and Tal area in Hangu district, backed by helicopters, tanks and artillery. The
aim of the operation was to destroy the militants still loyal to Hakimullah
Mehsud.
Although this military operation was ostensibly initiated against the
militants, Shi'ite Muslim residents believe it is equally directed against
them. A knowledgeable Pakistani columnist, Dr Mohammad Taqi, says that the
operation is aimed at opening the Thall-Parachinar road for the Haqqani network
and other pro-army jihadi groups.
More importantly, it is aimed at punishing those people in Kurram Agency who
have resisted the Haqqani network and the Pakistan army's support for the
Taliban.
The balance of power has shifted in favor of the Haqqani network for the first
time with Fazal Saeed Haqqani openly on its side. Although several local
Shi'ite leaders in upper Kurram vow to fight back, it is safe to say that they
are losing the battle, at least for now. [3]
Notes 1. Mansur Khan Mehsud,
TTP Divided in Kurram Agency, FATA Research Center, n.d.
2. For the strategic importance of this road for the Pakistan army and the
Haqqani Network, see Dr Mohammad Taqi, "Comment: The Sham operation in Kurram,"
Daily Times, Lahore, July 7. Available
here.
3. Telephone interviews with local leaders through research assistant, July
2011.
Arif Jamal is a visiting fellow at the New York University and author of
“Shadow War – The Untold Story of Jihad in Kashmir.”
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