SPEAKING
FREELY Understanding terrorism in
Pakistan By Luqman Saeed
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Pakistan emerged as
a focal point of discussion on the issue of
terrorism in the international political arena
after 9/11. The repercussions of the United
States-led invasion of Afghanistan resulted in
increased terrorist activity throughout the
country. Statistical evidence shows however that
this sort of politically motivated violence, which
is intended to influence an audience beyond the
locale of immediate victims is not just a
post-9/11 phenomena.
Since 1980, terrorist
activity in Pakistan has increased at the
annual rate of 8%. Two
major international political events are
repeatedly mentioned in previous studies as the
harbinger of the terrorist violence in the
country. Pakistan's decision to extend its covert
support to Afghan mujahideen necessitated the
nurturing of radical Islamist elements in the
country.
Some of these radical militants
perpetrated violence against the Shi'ite community
in the post-Iranian revolution era when Saudi
Arabia and the Shi'ite regime fought out proxy
wars in the neighboring regions, including
Pakistan. Also, under the shadow of Afghanistan,
jihad occurred the weaponization of Pakistan
society - and most importantly in Karachi where
the ethnic tensions with political roots as far
back as the 1950s emerged in a deadly fashion. [1]
This simplified version may provide an
understandable political context to the shaping of
terrorist mind. However, it does not give any
information about the socio-economic factors which
alter the calculus of an individual about whether
to take part in political violence or no.
To fulfill this research gap an empirical
study was undertaken as part of M-Phil economic
research thesis to determine the factors which
causes terrorism in Pakistan. It happens to be the
first comprehensive empirical study of its kind.
In the study data on terrorism was taken from
Global Terrorism Database and South Asian
Terrorism Portal. The empirical results provide a
very sound explanation of what causes terrorism in
Pakistan.
It was found that economic
growth is positively correlated to terrorism in
the country. It may sound theoretically absurd,
but the inclusion of absolute and relative poverty
measures further clarifies the picture. Although
growth in Pakistan has been increasing over the
years along with terrorist activity, poverty
during that time has increased too.
In
fact, poverty was found to be a very strong
determinant of terrorist activity in Pakistan. It
would not be wrong to state that growth in
Pakistan has remained asymmetrical. This disparity
in benefits of the growth has divided society.
Unemployment was also found to be causing
terrorism in the country. So it's the deprivation
which leads individual to take part in violent
political campaigns.
Political repression
accentuates the impact of poverty further on
terrorism. Therefore, as poverty reduces the
opportunity cost of taking part in terrorist
violence, lack of political opportunities to
express grievances against the system leaves no
choice but to engage with the system through
violent means.
It could be predicted that
if by next year 1.7 million more people go below
the poverty line, 268 terrorist incidents would
occur throughout the country. Moreover, if 0.5
million people in next year fail to secure
employment for themselves, terrorist incidents are
expected to increase by 27 incidents.
Secular violence in Balochistan can be
explained by the combined effects of poverty and
political repression. The economic motivation
behind the political violence in that province is
implicated by the fact that since the start of
ongoing insurgency since 2004, 58% of the attacks
were against energy utilities. Previous studies
have indicated political mobilization of Muhajir
community [2] as result of the deprivation. [3]
Federally Administered Tribal Areas, the main
center stage of religiously inspired militancy,
also happens to be economically marginalized
regions of the country.
One of the very
interesting results of the study was that
terrorism in Pakistan is higher at the
intermediate level of repression. The presence of
legitimate means to express dissent reduces
terrorist activity. That gives a very hopeful sign
that those taking part in terrorism are receptive
to democratic opportunities. The presence of
incentives within the system does reduce the
terrorism in Pakistan.
Poverty and
political repression may provide credible
explanations for the occurrence of nationalist and
ethnic political violence. However, explaining
religiously inspired political violence may
require more substantiation. Accordingly, in the
study the impact of modernity on terrorist
activity was checked, taking Foreign Direct
Investment in Pakistan as a proxy for modernity.
The import of modernity can results in a
weakening of social linkages. It introduces the
new norms and cultural values, whose abrupt
induction can divide society into conservative and
modernist camps. It may also produce a cultural
insecurity among marginalized class.
This
is supplemented by the above finding that
asymmetrical growth also has an impact on
terrorism. Economic insecurity is caused by income
disparity across the society, thus dividing it
into have and have-not. This insecurity is
aggravated by the sudden induction of
Westernization, thus disturbing the cultural
sensitivities of indigenous people. That produces
a reaction with highly religious undertones
against the society and state.
This
religious sentiment has also been inflamed by
military dependency on the United States. Over the
years, involvement of the US in the region has
been perceived to be illegitimate and a deliberate
targeting of the Muslim population. Moreover, this
military dependency of the state ought to result
in obligations which may not be accepted by the
same economically and culturally marginalized
class.
Further economic development was
also found to increase terrorism in Pakistan. It
was proxied by energy consumption per capita. This
is also one of the drivers of division in the
society. It can cause both secular and religious
political violence. It causes a general sense of
deprivation through asymmetries, as in
Balochistan, and also disturbs the cultural
sensitivities as more Westernization occurs as
part and parcel of more economic development.
Therefore, this empirical analysis does
not agree with just the "madman's deed"
explanation of terrorism. How horrendous a
terrorist act may be, there are always certain
factors which contribute to the shaping of
terrorist mind. Recent disciplinary research has
even come to regard terrorist as rational actor.
[4] Asymmetries in growth and political repression
are the major drivers of terrorist activity in
Pakistan.
Terrorism in Pakistan is rooted
in poverty. The violence gets religious sanction
through intruding modernity and US military
dependency. What is required is inclusive growth
which may increase the opportunity cost of taking
part in political violence. It may also decrease
the negative impact of modernity through more
justly distributing its benefits across society.
Increased political opportunities will
also provide incentives to the aggrieved to
struggle within the system. And finally, military
sovereignty is also indispensable in lowering the
militant religious sentiment which may reduce
terrorism across Pakistan.
Notes 1.The influx of
other ethnic groups in Karachi, mainly Pathans,
Sindhi nationalist policies of Z.A Bhutto
government (1973-77) such as making Sindhi second
national language in the province alongside with
Urdu, assigning of 60 percent quota to rural
Sindh, overwhelmingly inhabited by Sindhis, in
bureaucracy are cited as some of the reason of
perturbation in Muhajir community that eventually
led their collective political mobilization. 2.
Muhajir are the ones who emigrated from India to
Pakistan in 1947 after the creation of new state.
Of the 8 million refugees from India, 20% settled
in Sindhi province. 3. See Haq, F (1995), "Rise
of the MQM in Pakistan: Politics of Ethnic
Mobilization" Asian Survey (35)11 pp
990-1004. 4. Pittel, K. and Rubbelke, D T G
(2006), "What Directs a Terrorist?" Defense and
Peace Economics, 17(4),
311-328.
Luqman Saeed is
Lahore based researcher in Economics and freelance
writer. The findings of the article are from his
Economic Study of Terrorism in Pakistan,
which happens to be the first comprehensive study
of its kind, determining both the causes and costs
since 1980.
Speaking Freely is an
Asia Times Online feature that allows guest
writers to have their say.Please
click hereif you are interested in
contributing. Articles submitted for this section
allow our readers to express their opinions and do
not necessarily meet the same editorial standards
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