Pakistan gets a cuddle and a
hug By M K Bhadrakumar
The back-to-back
visits to Pakistan this week by China's Foreign
Minister Yang Jiechi and the Russian president's
special envoy for Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, are
rich in political symbolism and strategic content.
The consultations came at a time when
Pakistan is reeling under pressure from the United
States, the future of Afghanistan remains
complicated and regional security is in flux.
The timing of the consultations will draw
attention - since they were sandwiched between the
summit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization
(NATO) in Chicago on May 20-21 and the forthcoming
summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
(SCO) in Beijing on June 6-7. Afghanistan is a
burning issue for both international groupings.
But there is a global context, too. China
and Russia closely
coordinate on regional
and international issues. What stands out is that
Beijing and Moscow have come forward to extend
political support to Pakistan at a time when
Washington is trying to isolate it and make
Islamabad bend to its wishes.
Pakistan
President Asif Ali Zardari was invited to the NATO
summit and then publicly humiliated. The
alliance's secretary general, Anders Fogh
Rasmussen, and United States President Barack
Obama refused to meet him. Obama further showed
his displeasure by omitting Pakistan from the list
of countries he thanked for supporting the
military effort in Afghanistan and by pointedly
asking Pakistan to cooperate. Through media leaks,
US officials have since publicized that in a
closed-door session, Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton subjected Zardari to an hour-long
harangue.
A dragon cuddle ... Yang summed up his mission when he said in
Islamabad, "Pakistan deserves full support form
the international community." He said Islamabad
has played an important role in fighting terrorism
and he called upon the international community to
recognize it.
Yang stressed, "China will
continue to firmly support Pakistan in protecting
its sovereignty, independence, territorial
integrity and dignity." He made it clear that he
was in Islamabad to further strengthen and push
forward China's strategic partnership with
Pakistan.
Yang said that in the evolving
international situation the Sino-Pak relationship
has added strategic significance for promoting
world peace, stability and development. China
appreciated the important and active role played
by Pakistan in international and regional affairs,
he said.
Yang underscored that China will
unwaveringly pursue the policy of further
strengthening its friendship with Pakistan and is
willing to work together to deepen practical
cooperation and strengthen the strategic
coordination and elevate the partnership to new
heights.
Xinhua news agency reported that
China and Pakistan have agreed to "strengthen
multilateral coordination and to safeguard the
common interests of both sides." The reference
seems to be to Pakistan's role in the SCO, whose
forthcoming summit in Beijing will be attended by
Zardari.
While Yang's official visit had a
broad-ranging agenda, Kabulov's consultations were
focused and purposive. He came to Islamabad
primarily to discuss the situation in Afghanistan
and the forthcoming visit to Pakistan by Russian
President Vladimir Putin. Kabulov is
Moscow's ace diplomatic troubleshooter on
Afghanistan. The Pakistani accounts quoted him as
saying to Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani that
"enormous commonalities" existed between Russia
and Pakistan on regional issues and bilateral
cooperation. Clearly, the reference is to the
situation surrounding the Afghan problem, where
both Russia and Pakistan have been seeking a
bigger role while the US selectively engages them
for specific roles.
Putin's visit to
Pakistan, which is expected "soon", will be the
first by a Russian head of state in the six-decade
long history of relations between the two
countries. It will consolidate the remarkable
makeover in the two countries' relations in the
past two to three years.
The fact that
Putin picked Pakistan to be one of his first
visits abroad after taking over as president in
the Kremlin itself testifies to the "mood swing"
in the geopolitics of the region. Many trends need
to be factored in here.
Russia is gearing
up to play an effective role in world affairs. Its
assertive stance on Syria and Iran can be expected
to extend to Pakistan and Central Asia. Russia
kept its participation over the NATO summit on a
low-key and saw to it that none of the Central
Asian leaders who were invited - from Kazakhstan,
Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan - attended
either. Meanwhile, Moscow also hosted a summit of
the Collective Security Treaty Organization
(CSTO). Putin is undertaking visits to Belarus,
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan during the week ahead
and is virtually launching his Eurasian project.
There are signs that Moscow expects the
SCO to take common positions on regional and
international issues. The Beijing summit may
formalize a "mechanism" to this end. The Russian
media have forecast that the summit will take a
stance supportive of the Russian concerns on the
issue of the US missile defense.
Meanwhile, the US-Russia reset remains in
the doldrums and the probability is that it might
well degenerate through the months ahead until a
new administration takes over in White House early
next year. The exchanges have become increasingly
acrimonious at the diplomatic level. Obama's
Republican opponent, Mitt Romney, has declared
Russia to be a "destabilizing force on the world
stage" and the US's "No 1 geopolitical foe" and
has promised to "re-reset" Obama's reset of
US-Russia ties. Obama cannot afford to be seen
"soft" on Russia. Obviously, Russia has been
dragged into the vortex of the US presidential
election campaign.
Disregarding Russian
objections, NATO's Chicago summit also decided to
press ahead with the deployment of the US missile
defense system. Moscow has already warned that it
will take counter-measures. A new
"fifth-generation" missile system was test-fired
last week. Above all, Washington persists with an
intrusive policy toward Russia's domestic politics
and is positioning itself to challenge Putin's
Eurasia project.
… and a bear
hug On the other hand, Russia and Pakistan
have been closely consulting on the Afghan
situation, and they recognize each other's
legitimate interests. Both put primacy on a
regional approach to resolving the Afghan problem.
Each side acknowledges that the other has an
important role to play in the Afghan endgame. A
good working relationship has developed through
the past year or two. Russia works Pakistan within
the bilateral framework as well as in the
quadrilateral forum that includes Tajikistan and
Afghanistan.
On its part, Pakistan regards
Russian regional policies positively as favoring
its vital interests. Most importantly, Pakistan
and Russia share a deep skepticism about the
US-led "transition" in Afghanistan and the Afghan
security forces' capacity to maintain security.
Both assess that the NATO has lost the war but is
preparing the ground for keeping a long-term
military presence at affordable cost. In sum, they
strongly sense the need for them to work together
through the upcoming "transition" in Afghanistan
and the post-2014 period.
The geopolitics
of the Afghan war concerns Russia and Pakistan.
Neither is willing to put faith in what the US
claims to be the objectives of the war. Russia
suspects the intentions of the US as much as
Pakistan does. At the same time, both are
conscious of the US/NATO's vulnerability as
regards the transit routes through Pakistan and
the Northern Distribution Network. Pakistan isn't
alone in demanding a hike in the tariff for the
transit routes.
To be sure, Pakistan
eagerly seeks an ally in Russia to gain strategic
space vis-a-vis the US, while Moscow sees a window
of opportunity to regain its lost influence in
South Asia following the defeat in Afghanistan in
the 1980s. Thus, Pakistan is likely becoming a key
element in the evolving Russian regional
strategies. As Moscow would see it, the
realization of the US objectives in Afghanistan
and Central Asia is largely predicated on
Pakistan's cooperation as a willing partner.
Put differently, in order to effectively
counter the US's strategic thrust into Central
Asia, Russia (and China) would do well to
strengthen Pakistan's strategic autonomy and its
capacity to withstand US pressures. Pakistan, on
its part, has shown remarkable grit in standing up
to US pressures. The US's so-called New Silk Road
project to erode Russian and Chinese influence in
Central Asia itself becomes a non-starter without
Pakistan's whole-hearted cooperation.
However, a Russian-Pakistani partnership
cannot exist in a vacuum. The bilateral ties are
next to nothing at present. In order for a
strategic partnership to survive and gather
strength over time, it needs substantive content.
This is where Putin's visit can be expected to set
the ball rolling. Kabulov told Gilani that Putin
looked forward to a "productive" visit that would
be instrumental in enhancing multi-faceted
cooperation between Russia and Pakistan.
Kabulov discussed the agenda of Putin's
visit. Gilani listed the upgrade of Pakistan Steel
Mills in Karachi, defense cooperation and energy
among potential areas of cooperation.
(Interestingly, Kabulov's meetings included a call
on Pakistani army chief Ashfaq Kiani.)
Significantly, Gilani welcomed Russian
participation in the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline
project and pointed out that "some specific
proposals" have been discussed already.
In
geopolitical terms, the warming of the
Russian-Pakistani ties meshes with the growing
coordination between Moscow and Beijing on
regional and international issues. The fact that
Yang and Kabulov visited Pakistan at the same time
suggests a degree of Sino-Russian coordination in
their regional policy toward Pakistan. Indeed,
neither Yang nor Kabulov overtly nudged Pakistan
toward a "strategic defiance" of the US. But then,
they didn't have to. Suffice to say, the new
paradigm already presents Pakistan with an
unprecedented opportunity to negotiate with the US
from a position of strength.
The prospect
of Putin's visit to Pakistan will be highly
disquieting for Washington at the present
juncture. In normal circumstances, Washington
could have viewed the rising curve of
Russian-Pakistani relations with equanimity, since
both Russia and China would only have a moderating
influence on Pakistan. But these are extraordinary
times, with the US at loggerheads with Moscow and
Beijing.
The utter failure of the US
strategy in Afghanistan stands exposed in terms of
its exceptionalism and the stark absence of a
regional consensus. Yang and Kabulov could and
should have been the US's best allies in urging
Pakistan to work with the international community
for an enduring peace in Afghanistan. The paradox
is that even in the prevailing situation of high
volatility in the US's relations with Russia and
China they might well have done that, but without
Washington's bidding.
Ambassador M K
Bhadrakumar was a career diplomat in the
Indian Foreign Service. His assignments included
the Soviet Union, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany,
Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait and
Turkey.
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