Presidential race keeps India
guessing By Neeta Lal
The race to become India's 13th president
next month is being touted as one of the most
sensational in the country's history, with a
series of plot twists transfixing the nation.
The latest development saw the campaign of
the frontrunner for the July 19 vote, Finance
Minister Pranab Mukherjee from the ruling United
Progressive Alliance (UPA), suffer a blow as his
candidacy was opposed by two UPA partners - the
Trinamool Congress (TMC), which leads West Bengal,
and the Samajwadi Party (SP), which rules in Uttar
Pradesh.
Rather than supporting Mukherjee,
a 77-year-old veteran Congress leader with 43
years of parliamentary experience, the
two allies threw their
weight behind three possible candidates - Prime
Minister Manmohan Singh, former Lok Sabha (lower
house) speaker Somnath Chatterjee, and former
president APJ Abdul Kalam, who has since
withdrawn.
The curve ball by the UPA's
partners cast doubts over the health of the
coalition, with their proposal to back Manmohan
also throwing a shadow over his leadership.
However, general elections are next due in 2014,
and Manmohan recently rejected the possibility of
abandoning the prime minister's office for the
sake of being president.
It took an
uncharacteristic display of political leadership
by Sonia Gandhi, the UPA chairperson as well as
head of its dominant Congress party, to revive
Mukherjee's candidacy. As well as tempting
Samajwadi Party leader Singh Yadav to her side
(reportedly with the promise of a plum ministerial
berth), she enlisted the support of another Uttar
Pradesh political heavyweight, Bahujan Samaj Party
chief Mayawati. This left Trinamool Congress chief
Mamata Banerjee isolated, and Mukherjee - for now
- remains the UPA's presidential candidate.
While its uncertain how Banerjee will
react to the snub, her exit from involvement in
the presidential race may help Congress reach out
to her Leftist foes, which have more votes than
her in the electoral college used to choose the
president. (The president is not chosen directly
by ordinary citizens but by an electoral college
comprising elected members of the Lok Sabha, Rajya
Sabha (upper house) and state legislatures.)
Congress has already contacted the Left
through Communist Party Marxist leader Buddhadeb
Bhattacharjee.
With Mukherjee's candidacy
now seemingly secured, the ruling coalition can
now focus on its campaign. This isn't true
however, of the opposition National Democratic
Alliance (NDA), led by the Bharatiya Janata Party
(BJP). Some alliance partners, like the Janata Dal
(United) and the Shiv Sena, for instance, are
reluctant to pit a candidate against the UPA's
presidential nominee owing to Mukherjee's
"stature".
Other opposition parties,
however, are determined not to let the
presidential race be a cakewalk for the UPA. The
BJP wants a publicly contested face-off and does
not want Mukherjee to sail through unchallenged.
The NDA is keen to maintain the appearance of a
robust and inclusive coalition against the UPA
ahead of the 2014 elections, and this poll is seen
as crucial in the future marshalling of
anti-Congress forces.
Towards this end,
the right-wing BJP has opened up channels of
communication with Tamil Nadu chief minister J
Jayalalithaa and Odisha chief Naveen Patnaik in
hopes of finding a common candidate. National
Congress Party leader PA Sangma is supported by
Jayalalithaa and Naveen, but this could change now
that former Lok Sabha Speaker Sangma has also
thrown in his hat in the ring as a "tribal
candidate".
With the UPA backing
Mukherjee, and widespread reluctance across the
political spectrum to challenge him, the BJP faces
a tough campaign. However, the robust political
efforts the BPJ is exerting for what is largely a
ceremonial post underlines how competitive India's
democracy is at the moment.
Analysts say
both camps are putting so much effort into the
vote due to a looming tectonic shift in the nature
of Indian politics, thanks to the rise of
multi-party coalitions and regional satraps.
"The role of the president, as established
through recent convention, is also to advise and
counsel in the defense of constitutional and
political propriety," says constitutional expert
Manav Das Chokre. "However, the proliferation of
regional political forces has organically altered
the paradigm of politics in India. A president
will need to ensure that constitutional practice
does not deviate seriously from the basic model of
parliamentary democracy."
The swirling
regional and constitutional scenarios lend the
president's role more significance. For instance,
in cases when elections result in a "hung
parliament", the president chooses who becomes
premier. Past leaders Charan Singh, Chandra
Shekhar, IK Gujral and HD Deve Gowda all became
prime ministers following such a political
impasse.
Media pundits are also drawing
parallels between the current scenario and the
1969 presidential contest, when Indira Gandhi
rebelled against the official Congress candidate,
paving the way for a massive split in the party.
While regional insecurities of the allies, and
their so-called "allegiance" to the Congress party
"high command", make a split unlikely today,
large-scale desertion of UPA partners is very much
in the realm of a possibility.
Mukherjee's
nomination puts a seasoned political manager in
line for the most weighty job under the Indian
constitution. Given his vast political experience
and knowledge, he will likely play a decisive role
in the volatile situations that have become a
hallmark of contemporary Indian politics. But
niggling worries remain. Will a man so deeply
steeped in the affairs of one particular party
remain unbiased and fair? Or will he display a
strong partisan streak?
How Mukherjee
measures up to the role will be keenly watched not
only in India but across the globe.
Neeta Lal is a widely published
writer/commentator who contributes to many reputed
national and international print and Internet
publications.
(Copyright 2012 Asia
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