SPEAKING
FREELY Global power shift gives Pakistan
options By Khuram Iqbal
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times
Online feature that allows guest writers to have
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The elimination of
Osama Bin Laden in May 2011 heralded the end of an
era in global geopolitics. For more than a decade
the world was haunted with invisible enemies
disguised in layers of religious and political
ideologies. The US, the world's only remaining
superpower, led the global war on terror that had
successfully safeguarded the homeland against any
major terrorist attack after 9/11 but also
diverted its attention from more pressing issues
at home and abroad. While the Americans became too
obsessed with al-Qaeda and overstretched their
resources in this war,
China emerged, Russia resurged and Iran
recuperated.
For Pakistan, the decade-long
war on terror caused unprecedented instability and
social disorder. The government lost control over
large portions of territory in Federally
Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), Khyber
Pukhtoonkhwa and Balochistan. More than 30,000
civilians, personnel of military and law
enforcement agencies, leading religious scholars,
politicians, journalists and international cricket
became the casualties of war on terror. A whole
generation lived under fear of bomb blasts
resulting in indiscriminate killings. Pakistan's
international image suffered and it was labeled
the most dangerous country on the planet earth.
The US, India and Afghanistan were not the
only countries blaming Islamabad for not doing
enough against terrorism, a number of friendly
countries including China and Iran also joined the
chorus. The chaotic Western flank provided an
opportunity to Islamabad's adversaries to fish in
Pakistan's troubled waters by supporting unrest in
Balochistan, Kurram Agency and Gilgit Baltistan.
Memories from this subjugation at the hands of
internal and external adversaries during a decade
of humiliation - stretching from 2001 to 2011 -
will have a profound impact on Pakistan's future
strategic outlook.
From May 2011 onward,
with the exception of retaliatory attacks to
avenge Bin Laden's death in the immediate
aftermath of Operation Neptune Spear in
Abbottabad, the number of terrorist attacks in
Pakistan has significantly declined. Various
factors contributed to the relative calm in the
country, which suffered more suicide attacks than
Afghanistan and Iraq during 2007 and 2008.
Terrorist infrastructure in the tribal
region has been extensively damaged during the
military operations by Pakistan Army. The US drone
strikes targeting the top leadership of al-Qaeda
and Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) complimented
Pakistan's ground offensives in FATA and squeezed
the militants. The state's apparent anti-American
posture after the Salala friendly fire incident
absorbed rampant anti-Americanism that has been
previously manifested in form of increased
terrorist violence targeting the security force
and other state institutions. The radio intercepts
of Pakistani Taliban in FATA clearly indicate
Pakistan government's assertive stance vis-a-vis
America is effectively dissuading anti-state
fighters from terrorism.
By the end of
2014 when the international forces depart from
Afghanistan the threat of terrorism will persist
in Pakistan but with reduced intensity. Islamabad
will also attain the advantage of launching
counter-terrorism operations on its own time and
pace without any pressure from the American forces
stationed in Afghanistan. However, the departure
of international troops from the neighboring
country does not mean the end of "Great Game" at
our doorsteps. As soon as terrorism goes off the
world's radar, Pakistan will be confronted with
different strategic challenges.
Before
disengaging from Afghanistan, the US has already
outlined a policy that lays greater emphasis on
Asia. The American pivot in Asia, specifically
focusing on the Asia-Pacific, is intended to
rebalance the global power structure that tilted
largely in favor of China, Russia and Iran during
last decade. The recent speech of the US Defense
Secretary Leon Panetta at the Shangri-la Dialogue
in Singapore set the tone for America's renewed
focus on Asia-Pacific region. Panetta stated that
the US will expand its military power and presence
in support of "a deeper and more enduring
partnership role" in the Asia-Pacific Region. He
also announced that 60% of US Naval forces will be
based in the Pacific by 2020.
Rhetorically, Americans have been very
careful to avoid intimidating China in their
greater military focus on Asia. At the Shangri-la
2012, Panetta attempted to allay Beijing's
apprehensions over strategic rethink and dismissed
claims it poses a threat to China. However,
Beijing appears skeptical. For instance, a recent
article in the PLA Daily, an official media outlet
of the People's Liberation Army of China,
suggested the strategy reflects Washington's
growing concern about the erosion of its
superiority in the world. The same article stated
the Pentagon is returning to a threat-based
planning model that increasingly emphasizes China.
The US strategy and Chinese response indicate that
the Pentagon is actually on the course to confront
rather than engage one of her largest lenders, the
People's Republic of China.
At present,
Islamabad, seen as a traditional Chinese ally,
does not shine too brightly in the new American
strategy in Asia. However, due to its geographic
proximity and history of relationships with China,
India, Iran and Central Asia, Islamabad will
inevitably be plunged into the new great game that
may be called a rebirth of the Cold War, involving
the US but with China replacing the Soviet Union.
The country is located at the crossroads of China,
an emerging superpower, India, the American
counter-weight to China in South Asia and Iran,
the permanent headache for powerful Israeli lobby
in the US and for the Arab world.
With the
dawn of the "China threat" in the American policy
circles, Pakistan's options are limited. Prevalent
anti-Americanism on the societal level further
squeezes Islamabad's space to maneuver between a
superpower and an aspiring one. The recent history
of Pakistan-US relations suggests that the former
is unlikely to repeat the mistakes of the Cold War
and the "war on terror" by supporting an unpopular
contestant for global supremacy.
Khuram Iqbal is the co-author of
Pakistan: Terrorism Ground Zero. He is also
a researcher and PhD student at the Centre for
Transnational Crimes Prevention at the University
of Wollongong, Australia
Speaking
Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows
guest writers to have their say.Please
click hereif you are interested in
contributing. Articles submitted for this section
allow our readers to express their opinions and do
not necessarily meet the same editorial standards
of Asia Times Online's regular contributors.
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