Monsoon brings relief to farmers
and gamblers By Neeta Lal
NEW DELHI - India's vital southwest
monsoon at last broke this week, downpours in
northern Uttar Pradesh and elsewhere bringing
relief to farmers (though death in some heavily
flooded areas), vital water to rural peasants
without access to reliable supplies - and payouts
to gamblers staking savings on just when the
seasonal monsoon would arrive.
The
southwest monsoon rainfall between June and
September is critical for the India's nearly US$2
trillion economy, Asia's third largest. Around 80%
of the peasants, without reliable irrigation,
depend on this shower power, vital for farm output
in the world's second-biggest producer of rice,
wheat, sugar and cotton.
The rains also
drive the country's multi-million dollar satta
bazaar (illegal betting market), in which
people bet on every aspect of the
capricious natural
phenomenon. Which day will the monsoon arrive? How
much it will rain on the first day? Will the rain
arrive before or after 12 pm? How long will the
first cloudburst last? Which city will experience
maximum rainfall? All are hot topics that catch
the punters' collective fancy each year. Bets
worth an estimated $500-$700 million are at stake
this monsoon season, up from about $400 million
last year, reveal sources.
This year, with
all official forecasts of a "normal" monsoon going
awry, and the threat of a near-drought situation
looming large, the uncertainty has lent a piquant
twist to the betting game. An average monsoon
translates as rainfall between 96 and 104% of a
50-year average of 89 centimeters during a
four-month season from June. Rainfall below 90% of
the average is considered a drought.
With
June experiencing a 31% rainfall deficit, punters
who used the official forecast as a benchmark to
bet on a normal monsoon have lost out. Those who
bet on sub-par rains have hit the jackpot. With
their gaze transfixed heavenwards, punters are
waiting with bated breath for the first spell of
rain.
Bookmakers in satta market
see new trends emerging this year. Betting
syndicates are spreading their tentacles from the
traditional strongholds of Mumbai (notorious for
its underworld connections), and the capital city
of New Delhi, to cities like Jaipur, Agra, Mumbai,
Bhopal, Ahmedabad and the country's diamond hub of
Surat, say the bookies.
The
unpredictability of the monsoon adds to the thrill
of playing in the satta market, already a
fertile playground for subjects like the Indian
Premier League cricket matches and major political
developments such as elections.
"The
monsoon is a dynamic process and the situation can
alter dramatically within a span of days or even
hours," said one bookie. Up to the first week of
June this year, for instance, normal rainfall
seemed likely and was not a lucrative bet. Betting
one rupee (1.8 US cents), would have fetched
punters a return of only 50 paisa, or half a
rupee, if the monsoon turned out to be normal and
two rupees for deficient rains.
A drought,
which seemed unlikely, but may be a possibility
now given the current rainfall prospects, is
clearly a better bet. Excess rainfall or floods
are being ruled out by the bookies - who say they
will pay back 10-12 rupees for each rupee bet if
that transpires.
The Meteorological
Department forecasts that rainfall will be far
short of normal, down from 99% forecast last month
and the bookies' will pay back 80 paisa for a
rupee bet for deficient rains, 1.25 rupees for
normal rainfall and four rupees in the event of a
drought.
Ghasi Behari, a seasoned punter
from Manesar village, near northern Haryana,
admits that punting is in his DNA. He has made a
killing in predicting the outcome of the Indian
Premier League and that Prime Minister Manmohan
Singh would take over the finance ministry - which
he did late last month. He bet about $5,000 that
June rainfall would be low. "I closely monitor the
weather forecasts and follow the news channels to
make calculated guesses each year," said the
farmer. "I've never lost money."
Punters
play by instinct, relying on an alchemy of native
intelligence and weather forecasts. Banke Ram of
Siliguri said that for him the "water level of the
Ganges is a fairly accurate indicator of how good
or bad the monsoon will be". Ram Singh, of
Chattarpur village, on the outskirts of Delhi,
admits that his contacts in the Met Department are
"reliable guides" to help him place his bets.
The biggest bets are placed on the timing
of the rains. Last year's monsoon arrived in the
capital in the second week of July; a year earlier
it was June 24. In 2000, the monsoon arrived on
schedule on June 29, a year earlier the key date
was June 28, and in 1998 June 16. This year, the
forecast swung from the last week of June to the
first week of July and then to July 10. Bets worth
about $100 million rode on this date.
"This year, betting on the monsoon started
as early as the last week of May and accelerated
in mid-June,'' said a bookie. ''To begin with, a
delayed monsoon was the favorite but the dynamics
changed after June 15, when pre-monsoon showers
showed promise.'' Sporadic rainfall before the
official declaration of monsoon by the Indian
Meteorological Department (IMD) is termed a
pre-monsoon shower and not count in betting
circles.
The bookies stands to gain come
rain or shine, as satta continues even
after the first downpour. ''Betting on the monsoon
will continue till September, as certain bets are
based on seasonal rainfall,'' says a bookie. "For
us, the weather-department reports propel our
business."
Wary of Crime Branch raids,
Mumbai's bookies usually rely on underworld
connections to facilitate their transactions. The
police say they have stepped up their vigilance -
the bookies have also smartened up. Turning their
backs on traditional hideouts such as shady,
nondescript hotels in congested localities, they
have moved to portable Internet connections and
disposable cell phones to conduct their business.
To make it safer still, many conduct their
business out of SUVs parked on the outskirts of
cities so that they can make a quick dash if
required.
Law-enforcement agencies admit
anonymously that the illegal activity will
continue regardless of their attention, not least
because bookies have a solid network of informers.
Some operating from the Mumbai suburbs recently
vanished from the city only to resurface in
Kolkata and New Delhi.
Gambling was made
illegal by the British with the introduction of
the Public Gambling Act in 1867; the ban, they
believed, would strengthen the Indian economy
although it had been an intrinsic part of Indian
culture.
The Act drove gambling
underground and illegal gambling networks were
soon set up. Organized crime later saw this as an
opportunity and began to offer interesting
variations. While many Indians make use of legal
lottery systems, the majority of gambling in India
takes place illegally and networks make full use
of cutting-edge technologies to run their betting
systems.
Neeta Lal is a widely
published writer/commentator who contributes to
many reputed national and international print and
Internet publications.
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