SPEAKING
FREELY Baloch insurgency faces uncertain
future By Khuram Iqbal
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times
Online feature that allows guest writers to have
their say. Please
click hereif you are interested in
contributing.
Militancy in
Balochistan is no longer the "forgotten conflict"
of Pakistan. Long before the US Congressional
hearing on Balochistan early this year, the issue
had already taken a central role on the national,
regional and international political stage. An
official apology extended to Baloch people by
President Asif Ali Zardari, an ethnic Baloch
himself, in February 2008 demonstrated the
significance that present political elite attach
to the issue.
A number of political,
economic and security initiatives launched
by the ruling Pakistan
Peoples Party government and the military
establishment during the last four years, seeking
an amicable solution to the complex problem of
Pakistan's largest province, have gone unnoticed
and unacknowledged. This is the result of the
hijacking of public discourse by the left-wing
English media in Pakistan. Objectivity has long
become a causality of ideological enslavement of
public intellectuals in the country.
Baloch insurgents are often portrayed by
the Pakistani left as a bulwark against the forces
of religious extremism in the province bordering
Southern Afghanistan. Calling them secular just
because they denounce Taliban and al-Qaeda is
scholarly biased and ethically unfair. Apart from
separating state from religious institutions,
secularism also entails a movement toward
modernization. And modernization in the era of
globalization and triumph of democracy all around
the world cannot be achieved through out-dated
Marxist nationalist ideas, which itself has become
a religion of its own in the Pakistani context.
In Pakistani media, hardly any analysis is
devoted to the dangers of neo-Marxist nationalist
ideology upheld by the number of separatist
organizations, which categorically reject the idea
of open market economy and holds no respect for
ethnic diversity. The isolationist narrative being
espoused by the separatists in Balochistan
portrays the US as an eternal enemy working hand
in glove with the Pakistan Army to quell "Baloch
resistance".
Iran is seen as an "occupier
of West Balochistan" and mega-developmental
projects such as Gwadar port are described as an
extension of "Chinese Imperialism". Non-Baloch
population including Punjabis, Kashmiris and
Seraiki-speaking Baloch, who played a vital role
in maintaining the minimum levels of modernization
in absence of educated Balochs, are demonized by a
handful of Baloch militants as a fifth column of
Pakistan Army and ruthlessly killed.
This
attitude towards non-Baloch population of
Balochistan also shows a paradigm shift in the
separatists' policies and objectives when put in
the context of past insurrections of 1948 and
1970s. Baloch militants rarely resorted to attacks
against public targets in recent years - Pakistani
military, law enforcement agencies and symbols of
central government always remained the targets of
choice. The carefully selected targets won the
Baloch insurgents international acclaim and
legitimacy to their cause, two of the most crucial
elements for waging successful guerilla warfare.
But during the latest phase of insurgency
the Baloch fighters seem to have diverted from
this strategy and appear devoid of policy
direction. The insurgent forces in Balochistan are
struggling to keep pace with the changing nature
of the conflict and as a result are resorting to
tactics unheard of during past phases of the
insurrection. For example, the Balochistan
Liberation Army (BLA) has attempted to carry out a
few suicide attacks, which were successfully
pre-empted and prevented by Pakistani law
enforcement agencies. The use of human bombs is
something that can jeopardize the whole struggle
and makes Baloch militias appear more ruthless and
desperate.
As the conflict evolves and
conflict-resolution mechanisms are put in place by
the government of Pakistan, we observe some other
new trends emerging in the militant landscape of
Balochistan, which can have dire impacts for the
insurgent forces in the longer-run. Baloch
separatist outfits are gradually expanding their
areas of operation and widening the choices of
target.
From ambushes on security forces
to attacks on power pylons/gas pipelines, the
choice of targets has now widened to public places
in and out of Balochistan. A close examination of
the targets employed by the militants, operating
on the pretext of defending Baloch rights, reveals
that these attacks are not a part of systematic
campaign for the right of self-determination but
intended to create fear and anarchy all across
Pakistan.
On April 23, a bomb blast struck
Lahore Railway Station, which killed at least two
people and injured 40 others including women and
children. Similarly, on July 11, a bus carrying
the employees of the Space and Upper Atmosphere
Research Commission (Suparco) on the main Hub
River Road in Saeedabad, Karachi was targeted,
with 24 employees injured in this attack. Both
attacks were claimed by Lashkar-e-Balochistan, a
new addition to the galaxy of terrorist outfits
that have emerged in Balochistan during last
decade. The group was also found involved in the
July 23 bombing outside the Chinese Consulate in
Karachi. Though the human loss in this particular
case was minimal, Lashkar-e-Balochistan was able
to communicate that the highly-secured targets
beyond Balochistan are also within their reach.
The shift from a systematic campaign of
militancy to indiscriminate violence seems a
desperate reaction by militant outfits in
Balochistan and their masters operating from the
comfort of Switzerland, London and New Delhi. The
departure of international forces from Afghanistan
in 2014 will serve a major blow to the separatists
in Balochistan. The presence of foreign
sanctuaries and training facilities is essential
for the survival of a guerrilla movement
irrespective of its ideological orientation and
legitimacy of the cause.
As the present
power-structure collapses and Afghanistan plunges
into civil war following the disengagement of
allied forces, Indian spymasters operating from
the consulates and information centers across the
Pak-Afghan border will find it hard to ensure a
sustained supply of weapons, finances, training
and safe-sanctuaries to the militant outfits
involved in Balochistan unrest. This development
will be a game-changer in favor of Pakistan.
The story of the Liberation Tigers of
Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka is a case in
point. The organization rose to the status of the
world's most formidable entity with the help of
Indian external intelligence agency. As soon as
the Indians cut-off their support for the group,
Sri Lanka with a comparatively small army launched
successful counter-insurgency campaign, defeated
the group and re-established the writ of state in
the areas previously ruled by the LTTE.
In
Sri Lanka, the Research and Analysis Wing of India
did not curtail their support for a terrorist
outfit out of goodwill for Sri Lankan government
and the people. It was the assassination of Indian
Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi in May 1991 by an LTTE
suicide bomber and a radicalization of India's own
Tamil population, which forced the Indian
intelligence apparatus to rethink their policy
towards the group. In the case of Balochistan, the
separatists will be abandoned in a similar
fashion. This will not mark the end of unrest in
Balochistan as external support is not the only
factor behind insurgency in the province. The
political aspects of the Baloch struggle for
provincial autonomy and greater control will take
priority over the militants' quest for an
independent Balochistan.
Speaking
Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows
guest writers to have their say.Please
click hereif you are interested in
contributing.
Khuram Iqbal
is the co-author of Pakistan Terrorism
Ground Zero, a researcher and a PhD student
who works at the Center for Transnational Crimes
Prevention in Australia. He can be reached at
rkhuramiqbal@gmail.com
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
