Taliban talk prospects dim, not
dead By Abubakar Siddique
Grand hopes for a comprehensive peace
settlement with the Taliban in Afghanistan have
not died, but they have dimmed considerably.
The goal today, according to experts, is
much narrower in scope - keep lines of
communication open for now, with an eye toward
helping the Afghan government work out a deal with
the Taliban after foreign troops exit the country.
Kabul is primarily concentrating on
preparing the ground for 2014, says Marvin
Weinbaum, a former intelligence analyst with the
US State Department, when a presidential election
is expected to be held and North Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO) forces are to
hand over security
operations to the Afghan government.
Based
on his impressions during recent travels to
Afghanistan, Weinbaum says that Afghan and Western
officials view a political settlement with the
Taliban as something that is years down the road.
"If the [Afghan] election leaves us with a
president who is at least acceptable to the major
factions and then [the Afghan authorities] are
able to sustain the country until 2017 or so, then
that represents the best hope there is for a
political solution," Weinbaum says.
Contacts and discussions with the Taliban
are now focused on setting up future negotiations,
says Weinbaum, a regional specialist at
Washington's Middle East Institute think tank.
"What is absent here is any discussion
about the substance. All of this discussion now
which is going on is all facilitation. How can we
bring the two together?" Weinbaum says. "And there
is no attention being given to whether there are
the ingredients for reaching any kind of mutual
accommodation over the next two years."
Does the Taliban want to
talk? The idea of a political
reconciliation with the Taliban gained traction
soon after US President Barack Obama announced a
major surge of troops in 2009. In 2010,
international donors pledged some US$140 million
to help reintegrate rebel foot soldiers into
society. Late that year, Afghan President Hamid
Karzai appointed dozens of notable Afghans to a
High Peace Council to entice more moderate Taliban
leaders to drop their weapons and work with the
government.
The next year saw a lot of
behind-the-scenes diplomatic activity to get the
Taliban on board. Some former Taliban leaders were
removed from the UN sanctions list and the
insurgents were encouraged to establish a contact
office in the Middle East. But the September 2011
assassination of High Peace Council Chairman
Burhanuddin Rabbani dealt a blow to the process.
Dawood Muradian, head of the Afghan
Institute for Strategic Studies, says that the
Taliban is clearly on the wane.
Hopes
were revived when the Taliban opened a political
office in Qatar in January. However, the group
subsequently announced in May that it was
suspending talks with Washington. The Taliban
accused Washington of changing its position and
failing to swap five Taliban Guantanamo inmates in
exchange for the only US soldier the group holds.
According to Michael Semple, a former UN
and EU diplomat, the Taliban is questioning the
benefits of negotiations. Based on his interviews
with current and former Taliban leaders, Semple
says that hard-liners who want to fight on appear
to be winning out over those who favor a peace
settlement.
"Some of them clearly have
argued that if they fight on, they will be able to
see the Americans out of the country; they will
find themselves in a militarily strengthened
position in 2014; and they will be in a position
to make a bid for power," Semple says. "Those in
the movement who believe that they are going to
gain a military advantage, they have the upper
hand."
Dawood Muradian, head of the Afghan
Institute for Strategic Studies in Kabul, says
that the Taliban is clearly on the wane, but there
will be no room for a peace deal until it accepts
the Afghan Constitution.
"The Afghan
government and the Afghan political class will
continue to be embracing, to be inviting anyone
who wants to join the political process," Muradian
says, pointing to a "cautious optimism that we
have entered a post-Taliban era. The Taliban no
longer present a strategic threat to Afghanistan.
The Taliban have been defeated politically,
morally, and also in many aspects, they have been
defeated militarily."
Francesc Vendrell,
former representative for the EU and UN in
Afghanistan, notes that a third party could play a
major role in a peace deal being struck between
the Taliban and the Afghan government. But the
United States, which had assumed the role, will be
challenged by Kabul's insistence on leading the
peace process and also by the influence of
regional powers such as Iran and Pakistan.
"Without the assistance of a facilitator
or mediator, its hard to see [this process taking
shape] - it might take longer. Or, you would need
a very active [direct] negotiations process,"
Vendrell says.
Copyright (c) 2012, RFE/RL
Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free
Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW,
Washington DC 20036.
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