Sino-Indian ties border on the
amicable By Brendan O'Reilly
New dynamics are emerging in the crucial
Sino-Indian relationship. The two Asian giants are
developing deeper global cooperation, while at the
same time remaining stuck in a pattern of regional
rivalry. Their disputed border, India's
involvement in the growing confrontation in the
South China Sea, and the US "pivot" towards Asia
steer the Sino-Indian dynamic towards a combative
condition. At the same time, profound changes in
the global balance of political and economic power
are opening up vital new areas for cooperation.
Recent developments demonstrate
contradictory undercurrents in the bilateral
relationship. High-level talks in Beijing between the
two powers concluded last
week regarding their disputed border are a sign of
a positive momentum. A series of negotiations have
been going on since 2005. The current phase of the
talks center around building a diplomatic
framework in which the final border can be
demarcated.
Indian National Security
Adviser Shivshankar Menon was cautiously
optimistic about the negotiations: "Overall, when
we looked at our relationship and when we looked
at the boundary, we have actually made
considerable progress and we handled the
relationship well. The border is peaceful and we
made progress towards settlement." [1]
Dai
Bingguo, Menon's Chinese counterpart in the talks,
was considerably more enthusiastic. In an
interview with Indian media, Dai said: "Nothing is
impossible to a willing mind. As long as we are
devoted to staying friends forever, never treat
each other as enemies, pursue long-term peace and
friendly co-existence and vigorously promote
win-win cooperation, we will be capable of
creating miracles to the benefit of our peoples
and the entire mankind." [2]
Such
optimistic rhetoric demonstrates China's deep
strategic interest in maintaining an amicable
relationship with India. China is keen on wooing
India away from the budding regional anti-Chinese
alliance of the United States, Japan, and the
Philippines. The Chinese government wants to
improve relations with India and settle the border
to the west in order to have more strategic
maneuverability against Japan and the Americans in
the Pacific.
When asked about the US
pursuit of India as a potential regional ally, Dai
said, "In my view, India is a country of strategic
independence. It will not be wooed or ordered
about by anyone else. Being a forerunner of the
Non-Aligned Movement and a large emerging country
with growing international influence, India will
stick to its traditional independent foreign
policy and contribute to the peace and development
of the region and beyond."
Regional
confrontation However, at the same time as
promising negotiations may be leading to a
settlement on the disputed Sino-Indian frontier,
China's new regional assertiveness has inspired a
particularly combative Indian response on another
front. Although India is not a claimant in the
South China Sea territorial dispute, there are
vested Indian interests in the region. The
state-run Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC) has a
joint natural gas development program with the
Vietnamese government in the disputed waters, and
has invested over US$600 million in the project.
Last week, Vietnam accused Chinese vessels
of sabotaging a Vietnamese exploration operation
by severing a seismic cable. In response, Indian
Navy Chief Admiral DK Josh publicly stated the
capability of the Indian Navy to become involved
in any potential conflict: "When the requirement
is there, for example, in situations where our
country's interests are involved, for example
ONGC... we will be required to go there and we are
prepared for that… Now, are we preparing for it?
Are we having exercises of that nature? The short
answer is yes." [3]
Open willingness on
the part of the Indian Navy to deploy in the South
China Sea is an indication of an increasingly
proactive Indian stance. The Chinese Ministry of
Foreign Affairs was of course none too pleased
with Admiral Josh's announcement. Spokesman Hong
Lei, in apparent response to Indian military
commitments to protecting their Vietnamese
investments said: "China opposes any unilateral
oil and gas exploration activities in disputed
areas in the South China Sea and hopes relevant
countries respect China's sovereignty and national
interests, as well as the efforts of countries
within the region to resolve disputes through
bilateral negotiations." [4]
However, in
recent weeks the Chinese government has also made
moves to exacerbate the regional contention with
India. Newly printed Chinese passports contain a
map that shows the border regions disputed with
India as an integral part of Chinese territory.
India's Ministry of External Affairs has condemned
this representation as "unacceptable" and is
issuing special visas to Chinese citizens with a
map detailing India's land claims.
Why are
the Indian and Chinese governments goading each
other at the same time as making progress on
resolving their disputed border? The explanation
for these rather schizophrenic foreign policy
moves is primarily rooted in domestic politics.
Neither side can afford to look weak in front of
their longtime rival.
In India, this
dynamic is on full and open display. Memories of
the disastrous 1962 border war, and fears of
China's growing power, feature prominently in
Indian politics [5] (see Ghosts
of '62 can't rest in peace, Asia Times Online,
October 31, 2012). Opposition Member of Parliament
Lalji Tandon questioned the entire validity of the
ongoing Sino-Indian border talks: "There is no
commonly delineated Line of Actual Control in the
border areas between India and China... There is
no clear agreement on it between us. Our
understanding of where the border is differs from
theirs." [6]
China's political system is
much more opaque and centralized. However, it
stands to reason that there are elements in the
Chinese political structure that have a
particularly hawkish attitude towards India. These
elements may have been behind the move to print
the map containing disputed regions on new Chinese
passports.
Of course, there are others
explanations for the simultaneous friendly and
confrontational gestures from the Indian and
Chinese governments. Certain regional dynamics in
the Sino-Indian relationship appear to take the
form of a zero-sum game: what benefits one power
harms the other. By simultaneously making
confrontational moves and conciliatory rhetoric,
India and China are using both carrots and sticks
to achieve their diplomatic goals.
Global cooperation While China
and India remain regional rivals, they are
increasingly cooperating on a global scale. The
two nations share similar positions regarding
international trade, internal development and the
emergence of a new multipolar system of world
power. The Asian giants have offered each other
diplomatic support in several key areas. For
example, India and China have offered mutual
support in the critical areas of climate change
and reforming the system of international finance.
In February, the Indian government
proposed the establishment of a BRICS Development
Bank as an alternative to the World Bank and the
International Monetary Fund (IMF). Financial
cooperation between the emerging economies of
Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa
would be a game-changer for the system of
international finance. The World Bank and IMF
remain largely dominated by the United States and
its allies - Japan has nearly twice the voting
power of China in the IMF despite having a smaller
total economy.
Zhu Guangyao, China's
vice-minister of finance, is very enthusiastic
regarding the Indian proposal for creating the
BRICS Development Bank: "Underdeveloped
infrastructure is still a bottleneck for economic
development in some emerging economies and needs
massive credit support. We hope the establishment
of the BRICS Development Bank will help better
support these projects. Amid weak global trade,
which will grow by only 2.5% this year, it is a
common obligation for BRICS countries to fight
against trade protectionism and unleash their
potential." [7]
China and India find
themselves in a de facto alliance to champion the
cause of rapidly developing nations. As the
economies of the rich countries continue to
falter, China and India share a similar desire to
enhance their international standing. Furthermore,
there are deepening trade and investment ties
between the two nations. China is India's largest
trading partner.
Even regionally, India
and China have similar strategic concerns. Both
powers feel surrounded by potentially hostile
states. Just as India feels geographically
constrained by Pakistan and China, China feels
similarly uneasy due to the proximity of Japan,
America's massive Pacific fleet, and India itself.
Both nations stand to gain considerable strategic
maneuverability from defining their shared border
and maintaining friendly relations.
In
certain areas of Sino-Indian contention - such as
access to energy resources in the South China Sea
- contention is all-but inevitable. However, both
powers must be careful to promote their interests
without making the other side lose face.
Realpolitik posturing is acceptable, but insults
to the national dignity of either rival power can
have serious domestic repercussions, and could
push the relationship into open hostility.
Contradictory signals from China and India
in recent days point to the emergence of a stable
and amicable rivalry. Both powers have much to
gain from secure bilateral relations, and much to
lose from forming a hostile relationship. If China
and India can show sufficient respect to each
other and cooperate in their mutual interest, then
the two powers may secure regional peace and
radically alter the balance of global power.
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