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2 SPEAKING
FREELY Asia should go within, not ape the
West By Francesco Brunello
Zanitti
Speaking Freely is an Asia
Times Online feature that allows guest writers to
have their say. Please
click hereif you are interested in
contributing.
Twenty years after
the end of the Cold War, it seems clear that the
world is under a new a form of global governance.
Many international analysts argue that we are
undergoing a transition from an unipolar world
system ruled by United States hegemony, which
emerged at the end of the confrontation with
Soviet Union, to a multipolar world order.
Two reports released last month noted the
contemporary changes that have challenged Western
dominance. These reports were
"Global Trends 2030:
Alternative Worlds", by the US National
Intelligence Council, and "US Strategy for a
Post-Western World: Envisioning 2030", by the
Atlantic Council.
Although Washington
still remains the only superpower in the world,
militarily, it is undeniable that unlike a decade
ago, US hegemony has declined globally. Generally
speaking, Western domination of the world has come
to an end, despite all the historical limitations
of geographical connotations which unite Europe
with North America.
One could speak in
this sense of the end of Anglo-Saxon power and of
the conclusion of white man's domain in the world.
An epochal event considering his duration for more
than five centuries.
New centers of
political power have emerged in new economic
centers which are gradually developing. Over all,
those in Asia, like China and India, but also
Southeast Asia, and those in Latin America, such
as Brazil and Argentina.
In the case of
Asia we should speak about re-emerging countries,
since the territories corresponding to the current
states of China and India were characterized
during the 16th century by the existence of vast
empires, economically and militarily more advanced
and also more populated than Europeans kingdoms of
the same period.
Today, many historians
are questioning why small European states, often
divided by bloody religious conflicts, sought new
trade routes that gave the opportunity for
geographical discoveries, fundamental for their
rise as dominators of the world. Many important
items of modern Europe's social life came from
Asia, and in particular China if we consider for
example the Four Great Inventions (compass,
gunpowder, papermaking and printing).
Why
were epochal geographical findings not made by a
Chinese empire more populated and politically
stable than small kingdoms of Europe, and with a
modern and powerful fleet? History went in a
different manner and several centuries later the
same European countries and the United States
challenged the economic sovereignty and
territorial integrity of China, during the 19th
century.
Today, Asia could return to have
a leading role in the world, especially thanks to
the rise of China at a regional and global level.
Beijing now runs the second-biggest
economy in the world and for this reason the
foreign policy strategy of the re-elected US
President Barack Obama will be more focused on the
Asia-Pacific region. However, the American pivot
to Asia will also likely reduce Washington's
influence in other areas of the world, given the
superior strategic importance of the region.
The Asia-Pacific area presents many
aspects of economic dynamism and it is a region
that is going to see increased competition between
different global and local players.
China
is emerging as a leading power at the global level
and represents the most important country in the
world in manufacturing, production and commerce.
Beijing has major investments worldwide,
especially in Africa, Central and Southeast Asia
and Latin America.
There still are many
negative aspects of China's growth, such as social
inequalities between the population of big cities
and the countryside - millions of Chinese still
live below the poverty line. But the spectacular
rise of China cannot be denied with the measures
adopted by political leaders during the three
decades helping the country overcome challenges
and negative aspects characterizing contemporary
Chinese society.
India too has palpable
social imbalances and internal inequalities as
well a high proportion of poor. It has been
affected more than other BRICS (Brazil, Russia,
India, China and South Africa) countries by the
consequences of global financial crisis,
considering its worse economic performance during
2012 than previous years.
However, India
has significant potential as emerging country and
it can still aspire to become an important center
in the new multipolar world order. A central
factor is India adopting a system able to
recognize and exploit the potential of its ancient
civilization and culture, rather than simply
importing economic and social models from abroad,
especially from the West.
New Delhi must
also appropriately face its internal political
issues, often based on collisions between
different identities, which is a price of Indian
democratic system and sometimes also a brake on
its growth.
China and India will became
moreover two important and essential powers for
the stability of Asia, despite their constant
competition between each other, especially in
Indian Ocean and South China Sea.
The
Sino-Indian relationship is characterized by a
double situation of geopolitical competition and
strong economic cooperation in many fields. In any
case, the system represented by the triangle
United States-China-India, with the possible
inclusion of Russia, will mark international
relations of future Asia.
Despite all
this, Western decline and the rise of a new order
defined by many as multipolar, is evident by the
ascendance of other centers of power, not only in
Asia but also in other continents, like Latin
America.
In this case the most important
example is offered by Brazil. Brasilia has
promoted a policy of regional economic
integration, encouraging the consolidation of
local organizations such as the Southern Common
Market (Mercado Comun do Sur - MERCOSUR) between
Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay and
Venezuela; and more recently the Union of South
American Nations (Union de Naciones Suramericanas
- UNASUR, Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay,
Venezuela, Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru,
Chile, Guyana and Suriname) and the Community of
Latin America and Caribbean States (Comunidad de
Estados Latinoamericanos y Caribenos - CELAC, 33
countries).
The foreign policy of former
president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and President
Dilma Vana Rousseff governments has led to
increase the role of Brazil not only at a regional
level, but also globally, with a surge of
Brazilian influence especially in Asia and Africa
through a series of substantial investments.
Brazil is a member along with Russia, India, China
and South Africa of the BRICS, seeking to develop
a common policy about different global issues,
particularly in economic, commercial and
environmental fields; this policy is also
presented in other forums, such as BASIC (Brazil,
South Africa, India and China) and IBSA (India,
Brazil and South Africa).
There are other
important centers of power, for example in
Southeast Asia, where countries such as Indonesia
and Vietnam are increasing their regional
influence. In this regard, it is possible to
mention another group of countries that may have a
different and more important role in future, this
is the CIVET (Colombia, Indonesia, Venezuela,
Egypt and Turkey).
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