Page 2 of
2 SPEAKING
FREELY Asia should go within, not ape the
West By Francesco Brunello
Zanitti
As regards BRICS, this is an
important assemblage of economies that are more or
less at the same economic level and wish to make
unitary instances alternative to the traditional
system of power represented by Western countries.
Organizations such as the Group of 7 or
Group of 8 cannot effectively decide for everyone
like in the past. They do not represent the
current system of power. During 2012 that was an
attempt made by the BRICS countries to reform the
current system of representation inside the
International Monetary Fund (IMF), during the last
G20 meeting in Los Cabos (Mexico) in the month of
June.
This was also a very important
summit because the emerging
countries allocated billions
of dollars to the IMF emergency fund to provide
additional support to eurozone economies in the
event of a worsening of the debt crisis. BRICS
nations have called on the IMF to push through
reforms of quotas agreed in 2010 in order to
recognize the contribution of emerging economies
and to increase representation of BRICS in the
vote system. Current configuration of IMF vote
system is anachronistic and fails to reflect the
enormous changes occurred in the global economy
during the last decade.
Another
significant contemporary factor is the emerging of
geopolitical and geoeconomical groupings. Not only
the BRICS, but also the Association of Southeast
Asian Nations (ASEAN - Indonesia,Malaysia,
Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Brunei, Myanmar,
Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam); the Eurasian Union
(Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan and
Tajikistan); the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
(SCO - China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia,
Tajikistan and Uzbekistan; with the likely future
inclusion of India, Pakistan, Iran and
Afghanistan, today observer members); the South
Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC
- Sri Lanka, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal,
Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan); and already
mentioned UNASUR, MERCOSUR, CELAC in Latin
America.
This new kind of geopolitical
approach challenges old models focused only on a
national basis and offers new opportunities to
effectively address economic, social and political
issues of contemporary world. This system in which
the process of aggregation is evident could bring
to the structuring of what has been described as
multipolar or multi-central world order where the
traditional dominance of Western countries is
challenged. In this context, a multipolar system
with regional aggregations may also be effective
to promote a more equitable world and give the
opportunity for a greater dialogue between
civilizations worldwide, instead of a "clash of
civilizations", given the absence of single
hegemonic power or only two/three centers of
ideological influence as during the Cold War.
A particular and concrete pattern of
regional cooperation can be offered by the current
foreign policy of India, which aims to strengthen
its geopolitical presence in Asia and potentially
also globally. The action of New Delhi is central
in organizations such as SAARC, in which the Asian
country is trying to adopt a policy that inherits
the so-called "Gujral doctrine" of the 1990s,
whose promoter, the then prime minister I K
Gujral, died in December.
This policy is
characterized by a "unilateral appeasement" facing
small countries of South Asia, without expecting
reciprocity in exchange. The main objective is the
general development of the region and its
stability, an essential precondition for the
itself growth of India as a mature and respected
power of Asia. This policy may be difficult to be
implemented in the Indian approach towards
Pakistan and this is the main limit of this
geopolitical theory. But, considering the
situation of the last twenty years of South Asia,
it has given stability to the region and it can be
an important policy in order to favor social and
economic growth of the whole area.
Another
concrete example of regional cooperation
undertaken by India, following the traditional
"Look East policy", is connected to its relations
with Southeast Asian countries. India-ASEAN links
strongly emerged during the last India-ASEAN
meeting in Cambodia last November and on the
occasion of ASEAN-India Commemorative summit in
December in New Delhi.
After the signing
of an agreement on Free Trade in investments and
services between India and ASEAN countries, it
will be possible a better dialogue on a political
level, as well as promote and implement
cooperation in defense, counter-terrorism and
anti-piracy operations. An FTA between India and
ASEAN could lead to increase India-Southeast Asia
trade, potentially reaching US$200 billion by 2022
and allowing the start of a more concrete dialogue
in the economic field with other Asian countries,
for example those of the Regional Comprehensive
Economic Partnership, an organization which
includes Australia, China, Japan, South Korea and
New Zealand.
Negotiations are also
underway to increase collaboration in
communication and in the improvement of regional
infrastructures; there are some projects of roads
and railways that could link India to Vietnam, via
Myanmar, Thailand, Laos and Cambodia, and plans of
construction of an highway from Singapore to New
Delhi, passing Kuala Lumpur, Ho Chi Minh, Phnom
Penh, Bangkok, Vientiane, Yangon, Mandalay, Dhaka
and Kolkata.
There are obvious attempts to
increase cooperation and economic integration in
the region, a process that involved also China,
whose potential are enormous for the number of
countries involved, the strength of economies and
the weight of a numerous population. As stated by
Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, "India and
ASEAN represent together a community of 1.8
billion people, one quarter of the world
population with a combined GDP of $ 3.8 billion"
and therefore "it is only natural that India
should attach the highest priority to its
relationship with ASEAN".
Moreover, the
strengthening of India-ASEAN relationship will
allow the start of a regional balance, given the
contemporary rise of China in the area and its
relationship with the same countries of Southeast
Asia still much higher than India (in 2011 China's
trade with ASEAN amounted to $363 billion).
Tension related to the control of South China Sea
between China and some ASEAN countries could
encourage Indian presence in the area and favor a
situation of balance between the two Asian giants
but might also lead to increase competition
between them.
In this context,
contemporary Europe is in an obvious state of
decline. How Europe should face the rise of new
centers of power? Middle class in countries such
as Brazil, China and India is certainly not to the
level of that of European Union, if we consider
wages or the average standard of living. It is
clear however that the latter is increasing in the
emerging countries and we are in a phase of
redistribution of wealth at a global level. Youth
unemployment in Europe is growing, especially in
the southern countries, Portugal, Spain, Greece
and Italy.
There is a general situation of
poor GDP growth, as well an increase of elderly
population that will create social imbalances.
Inhabitants of Europe during the First World War
accounted for 25% of the world population, today
have fallen to 11% and are expected to come down
by 3-4% over the next 20 years. In order to have a
role in future global order, a possible solution
for Europe would be to encourage greater political
integration, although this option could increase
understandable discontent in some countries for
the loss of national sovereignty.
Countries of the Eurozone have lost their
economic sovereignty as fundamental decisions of
economic nature were suggested and prepared at an
European level rather than by national
parliaments. One problem of the eurozone is that
it sought economic unification before a political
one, and today national parliaments have great
difficulty acting independently.
To meet
challenges posed by new multipolar system and by
emerging players like Brazil, China and India, it
is necessary that European Union implement a
greater political integration. European
institutions should seek a proper, albeit
complicated, balance between different countries.
As well as an increased popular participation in
the construction of the European architecture and
a new policy concerning the decrease of native
population.
Globally Europe should try to
present a foreign policy more unified and
independent from external centers of power, an
element that is often missed in recent years
because individual interests were favored rather
than those of the whole community. The risk is
that following a future implosion of Europe,
national members will be unprepared to face the
new challenges of a multipolar system.
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online
feature that allows guest writers to have their
say.Please
click hereif you are interested in
contributing. Articles submitted for this section
allow our readers to express their opinions and do
not necessarily meet the same editorial standards
of Asia Times Online's regular contributors.
Francesco Brunello Zanitti
is Research Associate and Southern Asia Research
Program Director of ISAG (the Institute for
Advanced Studies in Geopolitics and Auxiliary
Sciences).
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
