Islamabad claims hollow protest
victory By Syed Fazl-e-Haider
KARACHI - As a result of a election
agreement signed between religious cleric
Professor Tahirul Qadri and the Pakistani
government, a four-day long sit-in staged by
thousands of protesters in Islamabad was called
off on January 17.
The government, which
is going to complete its tenure in March, had to
sign to avert a political crisis that could
threaten democracy ahead of elections scheduled to
be held in May. Qadri had led a protest march of
tens of thousands from the eastern city of Lahore.
The cleric had demanded that a caretaker
government be formed in the interim period between
this government stepping down and general
elections that must take place no later than May
17. His stipulation that this body be formed after
consultation with all
stakeholders - including the
military - triggered speculation in the media that
the military establishment is backing Qadri.
Both the government and opposition first
rejected his demands, declaring them
unconstitutional, but Qadri, who had virtually
taken hold of Islamabad with thousands of his
followers, piled pressure on President Asif Ali
Zardari's fragile and unpopular government,
forcing it to the negotiating table. Qadri has for
weeks been demanding wide-reaching electoral
reforms ahead of this year's national vote.
If Qadri is backed by the military, then
what the deal he signed with the government has
achieved was actually the achievement of the
military. If Qadri has become a stakeholder in the
nomination of a caretaker prime minister, then it
means the military will be a key player in the
formation of such a set up.
Ratified by
Prime Minister Raja Pervaiz Ashraf and signed by
the representatives of ruling Pakistan People's
Party (PPP) and its coalition partners, the
Islamabad "long march" declaration sets in stone
that the government and opposition will not be the
sole stakeholders in appointing a caretaker leader
when the government steps down.
"The
declaration surprisingly gives a big say to Dr
Qadri in the selection of the next caretaker prime
minister by stating that the treasury benches, 'in
complete consensus with Pakistan Awami Tehreek
will propose names of two honest and impartial
persons for appointment as caretaker PM," the
influential national newspaper The News said.
"Dr Qadri immediately claimed, even before
the law minister read out the text of the
declaration, that the government and opposition
now cannot appoint a caretaker PM [prime minister
of their choice. This militates against what has
been said in the constitution. It is to be seen
how the opposition parties in parliament will
react since there was no representation of the
opposition in the teams that negotiated and signed
the long march declaration."
Qadri's
protest march had drawn a line between
anti-establishment and pro-establishment political
parties. On one side are parties that supported
the Qadri agenda, such as the Muttahida Qaumi
Movement (MQM) , Imran Khan-led Pakistan
Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and the Pakistan Muslim
League (Q).
On the other side, the ruling
PPP, the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) led by
former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, the country's
main opposition party, Awami National Party (ANP)
and religious political parties like
Jamaat-i-Islami and Jamiat-Ulma-e-Islam (JUI-F),
led by Fazl-ur-Rehman, and Baloch nationalist
parties emerged as strong opponents, saying Qadri
was derailing the democratic process.
Under the government of former president
and retired four-star general Pervez Musharraf,
the leadership of the PPP and PML-N were not
allowed to enter Pakistan and two efforts were
made to block these parties from returning to
domestic politics. All such efforts however
fizzled out after the late Benazir Bhutto and
Nawaz Sharif returned home in 2007 and the parties
won a majority in 2008 polls. Some political
observers believe that this agenda - of keeping
the mainstream parties out of power - is now being
pursued by new actors like Qadri.
Some of
his demands, such as better scrutiny of candidates
in the general elections, is clearly in the public
interest and could ensure only the honest and
competent reach parliament. The screening of
candidates before elections could prove essential
in upholding and strengthening the people's faith
in parliamentary democracy.
However, it is
the "scrutiny provision" in the vote deal that
will likely see the government depart from its
commitment with Qadri. Some people from the ruling
coalition have raised question about the legal
status of the agreement have and talked of
throwing it into the dustbin. Opposition parties
have also undermined the deal and rejected it.
Through inefficiency and bad governance,
Pakistani politicians have in the past created a
route for the military to disrupt the democratic
process. It is a bitter truth of the country's
political history that military-led coups were not
resisted but welcomed by the people. There have
been dancing and sweets handed out at the
dismissal of political governments in the past.
The democrats have yet to learn from their
mistakes.
The present coalition government
has not delivered in the past five years. Last
week, the people welcomed the imposition of
governor rule in Balochistan and the dismissal of
the provincial government, which had failed to
protect the lives of citizens. Apart from rumors
of a military coup, an anti-government revolt was
already simmering in the country. There have been
obvious reasons to take issue with an unpopular
government that has so far been the most corrupt
in the country.
The people have looked to
the Supreme Court as a check on the corruption of
the ruling elite. The court is hearing several
cases linked to graft by the current and former
prime minister and was powerful enough to last
June oust a sitting premier and his cabinet.
Mubarak Haider wrote in a blog on
Dawn.com:
"The question, who deployed the
Qadri brigade, cannot be answered with a
conspiracy theory, because to propound a
conspiracy theory is the sole prerogative of
those who do not see any conspiracy in this
drama. It is clear, therefore, that he came on
his own "for the love of his people". The nation
received him so kindly because it remembers with
gratitude his services for Islam and Shariah
laws under [General] Zia ul Haq."
He
further wrote,
"Our generals and their admirers
contend that politicians are the architects of
everything bad from corruption to poverty and
chaos. That may be true in the sense that they
are selfish and vision less. But these "virtues"
are not limited to politicians; success in every
field of Pakistan is determined by exactly
these.
Politicians are responsible for
our suffering, perhaps, because they do not let
the generals rule this country with perfect
peace of mind; they keep clamoring for democracy
and constitution and they seek help from
international forces who twist our arm every now
and then. Our generals as guardians of our faith
and national honor have promoted strong
religious forces to combat heretical foreign
concepts like democracy."
The
Pakistan military, which has ruled for more than
half the country's history, still remains the only
national institution that is dynamic and well
organized. Whoever emerges as the main
beneficiaries of the long march deal, one thing is
plain, it is not now the democrats but the
generals and judges, who are the real "movers and
shakers" in Pakistan's domestic politics.
Syed Fazl-e-Haider (
www.syedfazlehaider.com ) is a development
analyst in Pakistan. He is the author of many
books, including The Economic Development of
Balochistan, published in May 2004. E-mail,
sfazlehaider05@yahoo.com
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