SPEAKING FREELY Afghan peace snared in regional politics
By Rajeev Agrawal
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have their say. Please click hereif you are interested in contributing.
Fears that the incompetence of the Afghan National Security Forces will doom the country's power transition as Western forces leave ignore a potentially more dangerous factor: political interference from regional countries.
Are Pakistan, Iran, India and China presently in a position to commit themselves towards the Afghan peace process? While ideological and strategic interests govern their individual
responses, it is ultimately the governments in power which would put in place mechanisms to interface in Afghanistan.
It is significant that all the other country, except China, face elections in next the 12 to 14 months. Most of these votes, particularly Iran and Pakistan, will be ideologically driven - this could prove critical not only for them but Afghanistan but the whole and the region.
Chronologically the crucial votes are the Pakistan elections this month, Iranian Presidential elections in June 2013 and the presidential elections in Afghanistan itself in early 2014. India, which is another important regional player which has large stakes in Afghanistan’s peace, has its elections in May 2014. So, as the world focuses on transition in Afghanistan in 2014 and beyond, there are interesting and important political developments lined up in its neighborhood.
Pakistan's deadly elections
If there is any nation which has the largest influence on developments in Afghanistan, it is Pakistan. It will therefore be important to see how Pakistan aligns its strategic interests with respect to Afghanistan in 2014 after the May elections that are taking place amid plenty of dramatic developments.
Imran Khan’s Party Tehreek-e-Insaf has made it quite clear that it will not align with the army and is likely to take a different stance on domestic and foreign policy issues. The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) has successfully completed five years in office, the first democratic government to do so in the country. It however, faces stiff challenge from Nawaz Shariff’s party Pakistan Muslim League, the PML (N).
It is quite clear that up until now, the army and the Inter-Services Intelligence have dictated policies for Pakistan in the region and especially in Afghanistan. A PPP return to power may ensure Pakistan’s continued influence in Afghan affairs, which may be detrimental to Afghanistan’s peace post 2014.
However, Nawaz Shariff, who was ousted from power by the army, may not share the same view. Imran Khan may not garner enough seats to form a government, but could either play spoiler or influence Pakistan’s polices as a part of a coalition government.
Whatever the result, along with the Pakistani people, Afghanistan will be watching the Pakistani election results keenly.
The Iranian presidential elections
Iran is yet another neighbor which has large influence and stakes in Afghanistan. It has pronounced cultural influence, especially in western Afghanistan and has been one of the major contributors towards reconstruction activity and economic aid to Afghanistan.
Politically too, it has influenced Afghanistan in a large way and has given shelter to many leaders and warlords on the run. It hosts more than 2 million Afghan refugees and migrants. The presence of the United States in Afghanistan is major security concern for Iran and it would hedge its political and cultural influence to see that this threat is minimized as soon as possible.
All these issues are likely to be highlighted and magnified with the forthcoming presidential elections. Current President Mahmud Ahmadinejad and his political group are unlikely to win as they are clearly out of favor with the Supreme Leader.
All developments indicate towards a Supreme Leader loyalist being elected as the next president. It would not only consolidate the power with the Supreme leader but also effect and influence Iran’s policies in the region. Primary among them, of course would be on Afghanistan.
Recent talks on Iran’s nuclear program clearly indicate that P5+1 are clearly biding their time until the elections. Then, the talks are likely to take some shape. What happens in Iran’s nuclear talks with the new regime will have a definite bearing on the military presence of United States and its allies in Afghanistan and its consequent effect on peace and stability in Afghanistan.
If there is no forward movement on nuclear talks, it is very unlikely that United States will be able to afford a major drawdown of military presence from Iran’s neighborhood.
The Afghan presidential elections
While Iran and Pakistan elections get underway this year, the most crucial elections are slated for next April, the Presidential elections in Afghanistan.
Elections have already been brought forward from August 2014, as a result of the drawdown and transition schedule. With President Hamid Karzai not eligible, it would be interesting to see who finally emerges as the leader.
While there are no clear forerunners in the race, there are plenty of names doing the rounds. Apart from the winner there is the question of reconciliation with Taliban and its inclusion or otherwise in the government in some form or the other. Clearly, political stability is one of the most important factors towards peace in Afghanistan and the key lies with the Presidential elections in 2014.
India's parliamentary elections
Last but not the least is the Parliamentary elections in India in May 2014. While the current government has been quite content with economic aid, reconstruction activities and training of ANSF, it may not be the same if there is a change in the government and a different coalition comes to power. It could lead to realignment of policies in the region including Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Conclusion
Post-2014 peace and stability in Afghanistan will likely to be a product of not only improvement in security but also a product of political developments in Afghanistan and its neighborhood. With its critical neighborhood itself in a state of political transition over next 12 months, it would be the combined effect of these developments and the emerging interests which would dictate peace in Afghanistan post 2014.
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have their say.Please click hereif you are interested in contributing. Articles submitted for this section allow our readers to express their opinions and do not necessarily meet the same editorial standards of Asia Times Online's regular contributors.
Rajeev Agrawal is a Research Fellow at the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.
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