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Asian security: China seizes the
moment
By Alan Boyd
SYDNEY -
Colin Powell always appeared a reluctant convert to
Washington's escalating war on terrorism, and is now
acutely aware that he is not the only one harboring
serious reservations.
The US secretary of state
began his second Asian tour with a guarded endorsement
of the George W Bush administration's self-appointed
mission to drive out Iraqi President Saddam Hussein
after a moderately successful campaign in Afghanistan.
He ended it with a ringing condemnation from his
Chinese counterpart Tang Jiaxuan that just may have left
a bigger impression on regional leaders, at least in the
Muslim world.
With impeccable
timing, Tang released a position paper that turned the full
glare of security discussions at the ASEAN Regional
Forum (ARF) in Brunei on President Bush's
increasingly unilateral vision of world order. Calling for Asian
countries to establish their own formula for resolving
global issues, the paper reflected unease in developing Asia
over the secondary role being accorded the United Nations.
"The new security concept is, in essence, to
rise above one-sided security and seek common security
through mutually beneficial cooperation," stated the
document.
Setting aside Beijing's own threats to
take unilateral action to recover renegade Taiwan,
multilateralism has been the cornerstone of Chinese
security interests since a landmark policy shakeup in
1996. There is little in the latest statement that could
be viewed as a departure from this dogmatic stance,
which reflects Chinese fears of being left out of a
post-Cold War framework of "global unipolar" influence
by the United States.
Based on what are termed
the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, the Chinese
policy extols precepts that might almost have come from
the ASEAN book of dispute resolution: mutual trust,
non-interference in the domestic affairs of other states
and social equality.
And the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) evidently is listening.
Predominantly Muslim Indonesia reportedly told Powell
that it wants a regional consensus on the next phase of
action against terrorism before the US acts. Malaysia
concurs, as does Brunei, the current ASEAN chairman.
Even in the more pro-US states such as
Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines, there is
dissatisfaction with the unambiguous - some might say
simplistic - rationale expounded by Bush for attacking
rogue states such as Iraq, which is an important trade
partner of ASEAN.
Enter Beijing, in the unlikely
role of a diplomatic power broker.
"China
maintains that a universally accepted new security model
should be set up to replace the Cold War mentality and
bloc politics," the state-controlled People's Daily
commented after the paper's release.
The
implication is that Beijing wants to restore the
declining status of the UN Security Council, where it
can still exercise a veto over "the Cold War mentality
and hegemony" of the Pentagon.
To isolate the
US, China is forging regional blocs that can out- muscle
Washington in the global talks arena and build its own
credentials as an emerging superpower. Most important of
these is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, set up
several years ago with Russia and four central Asian
states to promote security dialogue. It has already paid
enormous dividends for China, both at the diplomatic and
military levels.
Russian Foreign Minister Igor
Ivanov was among the first to back Tang's call in Brunei
for a multilateral formula on terrorism, though US
officials contend that he was more interested in
canvassing support for an offensive against Chechen
rebels.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is due to
initial a Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation during an
official visit to China this year that will likely focus
on a joint bid peace in the Korean peninsula. Paralleling
separate efforts by Powell to revive the stalled
dialogue between North and South, the initiative is
so far limited to low-level discussions but will nonetheless
appeal to regional states that would like Asia to
take more control of its own destiny.
While it
does not yet constitute a formal security alliance, the
Sino-Russian pact is undoubtedly leaving an imprint on
US policy in Asia, especially with respect to the
volatile Taiwan Strait.
When Russia announced
plans last month to sell China another 40 top-line Su-30
fighter planes, Washington immediately hinted that it
would upgrade Taiwan's air-defense missile systems. The
same thing happened when China acquired 30 Su-30s three
years ago, giving credence to charges by some Asian
countries that the two biggest global arms suppliers are
fueling tensions.
China wants to forge a better
security rapport with East Asia, possibly by building up
ARF's role in conflict resolution - the much- coveted
multilateral solution. But it it is not likely to have
an easy ride. For one thing, the ASEAN states are no
more comfortable with the notion of extended Chinese
influence than with an excessive US military presence in
their region. For another, they don't want ARF's noble
objective as a forum for diffusing tensions to be
overshadowed by the more globalized struggle for
ascendancy between Washington and Beijing.
ASEAN
would prefer that the two circling economic dynamos
share responsibility for keeping the peace in Asia,
starting with a cooperative effort against the terrorism
scourge. However, this is unlikely to happen until
China's strategic intentions within the region become a
little clearer, as the US defensive stance is clearly
based on a potential Chinese threat.
It is not
the limited Chinese long-range missile capability that
worries Washington, but its targeting, which has
radically changed since Beijing began to improve its
relations with Moscow. Once aimed predominantly at the
far-flung Soviet nuclear sites, China's 20-30 aging Dong
Feng 5/5A intercontinental ballistic missiles and a
larger stock of intermediate DF-21/21As are now thought
to be targeted at US cities.
While they do not
affect the balance of power within the region, the
missiles are an obstacle to the security dialogue,
despite overwhelming evidence that China's military
capability is defensive in outlook.
Yet there is
a basis for optimism that the relationship with the US
could improve, even with the undercurrent of tensions
over Taiwan and Chinese reservations over the terrorism
response. Security analysts are putting their faith in
the ongoing transformation of China itself from an
agrarian economy to an emerging industrial state, with a
corresponding decline in the military apparatus.
Although China is the biggest global supplier of
weapons to under-developed countries, its military
output has declined sharply since Deng Xiaoping
instituted the first market reforms in 1978. Per capita
spending on the armed forces is expected to drop
steadily as Beijing diverts more resources into into
economic development, which it must do to bridge the
social divide between disadvantaged rural provinces and
the more affluent cities.
Washington should be
in a position to influence this transition, but instead
pursues policies on China that are uncoordinated and
lacking a consensus position, according to Washington's
influential US-China Review Commission. In its annual
report to the US Congress last month, the commission
warned that "serious differences in perceptions" between
each country had created a climate for possible
misunderstandings.
One of these
misunderstandings is now occurring in the terrorism
response, and Powell's evident discomfiture over an
escalation suggests that Washington is still searching
for a common stance on the issue.
If he slips
up, expect China to keep ASEAN fully informed.
(©2002 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights
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