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Asian winners and losers after September
11
By Gary LaMoshi
HONG KONG
- In the year since the September 11 terror attacks,
Asian nations have tried to turn US President George W
Bush's "you're either with us or against us" challenge
on its head: they're against terrorism but they don't
want to be with the United States. The nations that have
been able to co-opt the war on terror for their own
objectives have made some impressive gains (that may
have little to do with terror), while those caught up in
US objectives have suffered casualties.
Afghanistan became ground zero for the US war on
terror. While most Afghans may be better off without the
Taliban, it's hard to call the country a winner. The war
against the Taliban inflicted a lot of collateral
damage, both physical and political. Local warlords have
reasserted themselves, the drug trade is back, the
Taliban haven't disappeared and foreign troops remain in
the country. After another year, it may be possible to
judge whether Afghanistan won or lost the war; it may
take another five years or decades.
Afghanistan's neighbor Pakistan also has a mixed
scorecard. Pakistani President General Pervez
Musharraf's military regime became fit for decent
international company by turning against the Taliban and
his own intelligence service that helped him create
stability next door. A key leg of Pakistan's strategy
was sawn off, and now other countries have taken an
interest, so Pakistan can no longer dictate events in
Afghanistan. International assistance has come at the
price of fundamentalist discontent domestically, and
al-Qaeda elements are reportedly regrouping in Pakistan.
Like Afghanistan, Pakistan has a lot of adjustments to
make in difficult circumstances.
Pakistan's
arch-rival India ranks among the big winners over the
past 12 months. The war on terrorism gave India an
opening to gain international backing in Kashmir without
agreeing to an international solution to what it
stubbornly characterizes as an internal matter. It has
labeled Kashmiri separatists as terrorists and won help
to curb Pakistan's support for them. Also, the more
foreigners see of Pakistan, the better India looks as a
responsible partner for stability in the region.
China also turned the war on terror to its
advantage against an internal threat. The US State
Department labeled the Uighur separatist East Turkestan
Islamic Movement a terrorist organization, legitimizing
Beijing's heavy-handed oppression in Xinjiang (see Washington betrays China's
Uighurs, September 5). China also won points
with the US for cooperation with intelligence
information.
Bush's inclusion of North Korea in
the "axis of evil" also works to China's advantage in
the region. Unlike Bill Clinton's administration, the
Bush White House never warmed to South Korean President
Kim Dae-Jung's Sunshine Policy of negotiation with
Pyongyang. That leaves China as America's partner for
engagement with Kim Jong-il's regime and keeps a wedge
between Washington and Seoul.
Malaysia has used
the war on terrorism to buff its international standing
and put further pressure on fundamentalist Islamic
political opponents of Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad's
ruling coalition. Mahathir has skillfully positioned
Malaysia as a moderate Islamic nation. Despite
strong-arm tactics against dissidents and political
control of the media, Malaysia still qualifies as a
democratic example for the rest of the Islamic world.
Moreover, Mahathir has won Western support without
tempering his rhetoric against western values.
Asian-values proponent Singapore has used the
war on terrorism as an opportunity to tighten its
internal security lid, while Senior Minister Lee Kwan
Yew bashes Indonesia for failing to crack down on its
Islamic fundamentalists. Aside from this Association of
Southeast Asian Nations family squabble, the rhetoric
burnishes Singapore's place as the West's most reliable
partner in Asia and a primary beneficiary of an
increased US intelligence presence in the region,
perhaps prompted in part by Singapore's grave warnings.
Indonesia has reaped the greatest benefit at the
smallest price from increased US concern over terror
connections in Southeast Asia. Indonesian President
Megawati Sukarnoputri's charmed stars made her the first
foreign leader to visit the White House after the
September 11 attacks, and she walked away with a
half-billion-dollar aid package in exchange for bland
promises to support anti-terror efforts. She's since
backed away from the US embrace to keep more radical
Muslim voice focus on Uncle Sam rather than Ibu
Mega, while continuing to take US dollars. Indonesia's
armed forces have been the primary beneficiary,
regaining US official military assistance.
The
military remains a wild card in Indonesian politics, and
with its US seal of approval, a more potent one. The
military has agreed to give up its seats when the new
legislature is chosen in 2004. The chief has also urged
his troops not to use their newly granted voting power.
Separating the military from politics may be a sign of
maturing democracy in Indonesia. It may position the
brass hats, with their renewed channels to US officials,
as an alternative to an increasingly paralyzed, immature
political elite.
Philippine President Gloria
Macapagal-Arroyo's enthusiasm for the war on terror
seems to have backfired. Admitting US troops for a
training mission to help the Philippine army tackle Abu
Sayyaf separatists failed to wipe out the rebel group,
rekindling anti-US sentiment that probably helps the
larger, more dangerous Moro Islamic Front. The operation
to free two US hostages left one of them dead, hardly a
powerful symbol for winning hearts and minds. The US
mission may have built physical and political
infrastructure for future moves in that part of the
region, but it has also exposed the political price to
the Philippines for such moves.
Looking down the
scorecard, the winning countries turned US anti-terror
rhetoric toward their own objectives while maintaining
their distance from the US and its actions in
Afghanistan. Call the Asians opportunists - or cite the
US for missing an opportunity to convert the sympathy of
last year into widespread goodwill.
(©2002 Asia
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