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Malaysia: Year of surprises and
hardships
By Anil Netto
PENANG, Malaysia - The year draws to a close for
Malaysia in much the same way it began: more arrests
under the feared Internal Security Act (ISA) amid still
uncertain economic prospects. The added ingredients
during the year: Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad's
unexpected resignation and the effects of the Bali bomb
blast.
Twelve ISA arrests this month - 10
detained for allegedly spreading e-mail "rumors" warning
of a terror attack in Kuala Lumpur and another two in
Sabah for alleged links with Jemaah Islamiah - have
added to the prevailing climate of uncertainty. Unlike
in the past, the authorities have not revealed the
identities of the recent detainees.
Critics say
the arrests of the e-mail users - most, if not all, have
been released on bail - were unwarranted, as the
government could have easily countered such rumors with
its own statements. The arrests are likely to lead to
increased fear among Internet users while still allowing
the government to claim no Internet censorship.
But it was the premier's tearful quit decision
in June that was the watershed event of the year,
leaving the political landscape looking as hazy as the
skies in August when smog shrouded large parts of the
country.
Though Mahathir was "persuaded" to stay
on until the Organization of Islamic Conferences meeting
in Kuala Lumpur next year, supposedly to provide for a
smooth transfer of power, the succession issue looks far
from settled.
When the 77-year-old premier later
announced a few new cabinet appointments, analysts
pointed out that these were people closer to Defense
Minister Najib Razak than to heir designate Abdullah
Badawi, the deputy premier.
Abdullah has not yet
revealed his choice for the No 2 post when he takes over
as prime minister, preferring to keep his cards close to
his chest. But Mahathir has hinted that he may want
Najib to move up to No 2. And with dark horses such as
Tengku Razaleigh - Mahathir's onetime arch
rival-turned-ally - still lurking in the shadows, the
stage appears set for some factional infighting within
the United Malays National Organization (UMNO), the
dominant partner in the ruling coalition, when the
premier steps down.
Next year's UMNO elections
are therefore likely to be postponed until after the
general election (due by late 2004 but expected to be
held earlier).
Then there is ailing jailed
ex-deputy premier Anwar Ibrahim, the icon of the
suppressed - and now subdued - reformasi
movement, whose requests for overseas treatment for his
back injury have been denied. Though serving jail
sentences totaling 15 years, Anwar can never be written
off, pricking as he does the public conscience. Though
he was once part of the system, he remains an icon
especially among Malay-Muslims and others disillusioned
with authoritarianism, corruption and lopsided
development.
Abdullah, Anwar's successor and
political rival, has yet to emerge from the shadow of
the premier who has ruled Malaysia for more than 22
years. Though some analysts refer to Abdullah as "Mr
Nice Guy", he is also the powerful home minister, whose
signature is required for detentions without trial under
the feared ISA.
More than 120 people are now
being held without trial; a couple of court rulings in
their favor have been ignored. Press freedom is dismal,
with Malaysia ranked a lowly 110th out of 139 countries
surveyed by Reporters Without Borders. Malaysia has
still not yet ratified key United Nations human-rights
covenants and conventions, the latest being its
abstention last Wednesday during the vote on the
Optional Protocol on Torture, which allows for
international scrutiny of places of detention.
If Mahathir does step down next year as planned
- some are still not convinced that he is quitting -
whoever succeeds him will inherit a ruling coalition
that is not as cohesive as it once was. Relations among
the Barisan Nasional (BN, or National Front) component
parties have taken a slight turn for the worse.
Nowhere is this more evident than in the
Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA), the second-largest
BN party after UMNO.
On December 16, the MCA
presidential council suspended indefinitely the party
membership of two of its Penang state assembly members,
Lim Boo Chang and Tan Cheng Liang, for abstaining on -
instead of voting against - an opposition-sponsored
motion to defer a controversial 17-kilometer highway
project on the congested northern island.
Their
suspensions prompted debate as to whether conscience and
loyalty to the people's needs should override partisan
considerations. Others said their abstentions
represented nothing more than MCA-Gerakan rivalry.
Gerakan, a Chinese-based, multi-ethnic party, leads the
BN coalition government in Penang and it had counted on
MCA support for the Penang Outer Ring Road (PORR)
project, which is strongly backed by UMNO.
What
began as a regional controversy - on a per-kilometer
basis, the MR1 billion (US$263 million) PORR would be
the most expensive highway in the country - soon
exploded into a national issue. With both UMNO and
Gerakan calling for action to be taken against the two
MCA dissidents, the issue threatened to undermine
coalition unity. The "heat" forced the MCA to take
action against the duo; some saw their "indefinite
suspension" as an interim compromise measure until
things cooled.
Within the MCA, a factional feud
has been simmering between those allied to party
president Ling Liong Sik (dubbed Team A) and his
opponents (Team B). Such intra-party and intra-coalition
feuding may jeopardize the ruling coalition more than
the best efforts of the opposition parties, still
divided along ideological lines - a far cry from the
united opposition alliance that was quickly forged after
Anwar's ouster and jailing.
But Anwar's National
Justice Party (Keadilan), led by his wife Wan Azizah, is
merging with the tiny but progressive Malaysian People's
Party (PRM) to form the multi-ethnic People's Justice
Party. The merged entity could provide a credible
alternative to UMNO and the conservative opposition
Islamic Party (PAS). Keadilan also wants to work closely
with the Chinese-based Democratic Action Party to avoid
splitting the opposition votes.
South of the
border, prickly outstanding issues especially over water
pricing have plagued Malaysia-Singapore relations - but,
as one analyst pointed out, such disputes have not
affected the two countries' almost symbiotic, seamless
cooperation over security issues.
After the
meeting with the Thai cabinet over the weekend, there is
likely to be closer cooperation with Thailand too,
including on security issues. Mahathir and Thai Prime
Minister Thaksin Shinawatra may have found they have
much in common in their understanding (or lack thereof)
of a democracy - including peaceful demonstrations and
freedom of the press - and their tolerance of an
unhealthy business-political nexus.
And, as
usual, another tiff with Australia - this time over
Prime Minister John Howard's ill-conceived threat to
launch preemptive counter-terrorist strikes in the
region.
Economically, Malaysia's greatest
challenge is how to make up for the slack in foreign
direct investment to sustain modest economic growth. For
the first nine months of 2002, only $1.5 billion worth
of foreign projects was approved compared with $5.0
billion for the whole of 2001. There is some hope that
increased applications for new domestic investment would
ease some of the strain.
Growth for 2002 is
expected to reach 4 percent - better than some had
expected in the face of mixed signals from the US
economy and its high unemployment. A Malaysian economic
think-tank said increased intra-Asian exports to such
countries as China, Japan and South Korea had
compensated somewhat for the sluggish exports to Europe
and the United States. It predicted that economic growth
could rise to 5.7 percent in 2003 on the back of higher
electrical and electronics exports and high palm-oil
prices. But that looks a bit optimistic given the
uncertain global outlook, a possible war in Iraq, and
the slump in tourism after the Bali bombing.
Faced with uncertainty on so many fronts and
denied much space for dissent, the Malaysian public
appears to have turned inwards, focusing more on
bread-and-butter issues - though there have been
sporadic residents' protests on local issues such as
PORR. Despite the quieter political scene, significant
pockets of resentment, especially among Muslim-Malays,
remain and will pose the biggest challenge to Mahathir's
successor.
(©2002 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All
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