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HEY, JOE
Gloria's gambit: Risky
business
By Ted Lerner
It was
an announcement that clearly stunned the nation. Even
those closest to Philippine President Gloria
Macapagal-Arroyo, except her immediate family, had no
idea it was coming.
 Two days before the
beginning of the new year, Arroyo, during a speech given
in the mountain hamlet of Baguio City, said that she
would not participate in the 2004 presidential election.
The election, she said, was destined to be one of the
most divisive in Philippine history and that her
participation in it would only heighten the serious
tensions and deep divisions that continue to plague the
Philippines. The country, she said, was in deep crisis,
politically and economically, and the last thing it
could withstand was a full-scale political brawl. She
vowed that now that she had relieved herself from the
burden of politicking, she would use the remaining 15
months of her term and concentrate on pushing through
radical economic policies, battling corruption, easing
the country's crushing unemployment and healing the
divisions that rend the nation.
At first glance
the surprise decision of Arroyo not to participate in
the upcoming presidential contest seemed like a
well-crafted political stroke. Her supporters certainly
thought so, quickly praising the president's resolve. In
a nation beset with continual political bickering,
willingly pulling out of the 2004 polls, they claimed,
now places Arroyo above the fray of politics. Imagine,
they gushed, a Philippine politician, and the sitting
president no less, sacrificing her political career for
the love of country. If only other national and local
leaders would do the same, the Philippines would soon be
the shining light of Asia.
But is Arroyo's
decision really as magnanimous as her supporters like to
make it seem? Certainly it might garner her some
temporary points for trying to put herself above the
sordid mess that is Philippine politics. However, a
closer look at the situation in the Philippines reveals
that Arroyo's withdrawal from the upcoming presidential
contest changes little in the country. In fact, now that
she has become a de facto lame-duck president, things
could get even more chaotic.
Arroyo appeared
headed for sure defeat in the upcoming polls. Her
popularity has been steadily declining since the moment
she ascended to office in January 2001 after the
military withdrew its support from then president Joseph
Estrada, whose administration had been plagued by
charges of corruption. But while Arroyo promised to
clean up Estrada's mess, her administration has
proceeded to become embroiled in one corruption scandal
after the next. From overpriced power generation and
roads, a debacle concerning the newly constructed
international airport, stacking the judiciary with
blatantly political appointees, and bribery charges
amounting in the millions of dollars, Arroyo has been
hard pressed to lay claim to her assertion that she is
providing good and clean governance.
The latest
scandal has reached the president's very doorstep and
has yet to be fully investigated. Congressman Mark
Jimenez accused Arroyo's justice secretary, Hernando
Perez, of extorting US$2 million out of him as payola
from a power contract with an Argentine firm in exchange
for immunity for Jimenez in the Estrada plunder trial.
Under mounting pressure, Perez recently resigned.
Jimenez, who was just extradited to the United
States, where he was wanted on charges of fraud and
illegal campaign contributions to the Democratic Party,
also presented copies before leaving of canceled checks
showing that he donated nearly $400,000 to the
president's husband, Jose Miguel "Mike" Arroyo, for a
foundation the Arroyos run. Much of the money, however,
was never deposited in the foundation, but instead went
to a private bank conveniently located right near a
building owned by Mike Arroyo.
Besides tales of
graft and corruption, President Arroyo has obviously
never been able to take hold of the reigns of power in
the Philippine government. Much of this has to do with
the way she ascended to power. The cabal of the elite
civil-society groups, the business sector and especially
the ever influential Catholic Church like to call what
happened in January 2001 as People Power 2. But the
street protest that followed Estrada's aborted
impeachment trial - it was the prosecutors who walked
out - probably would have amounted to nothing had not
the military generals decided to withdraw their support,
which is illegal, from the duly elected Estrada.
Estrada insists to this day that he never
resigned and that he only took a leave of absence.
Several months after he left the palace, however, the
Philippine Supreme Court ruled that he had indeed
"constructively" resigned. Their evidence was not a
resignation letter - which didn't exist - but a diary
written by Estrada's executive secretary that was
published in a newspaper. Clearly not the most
conclusive of evidence.
And so while the Supreme
Court legitimized Arroyo's ascension to power, there
were still sectors who still believed otherwise.
Obviously sensing this, Arroyo has made every attempt to
woo the poor, teeming masses, the real power in
Philippine politics and the ones responsible for giving
Estrada the largest mandate in Philippine electoral
history. But her moves have often been seen as insincere
and their support and approval have eluded her.
The other big power in Philippine politics, the
military, has publicly stated many times that it
supports Arroyo. Behind the scenes, however, has been
another story. There are clearly many groups within the
military who did not agree with the generals' withdrawal
of support from a legitimately elected leader. Indeed,
every few months since Arroyo's rise to power, serious
rumors of coups d'etat in the offing have come about.
Arroyo has been constantly appeasing the military by
offering raises, bonuses and increases in expenditure
packages. The military's restiveness and power have
become so evident that several months back, a group of
junior officers held an unusual news conference to
announce they still supported Arroyo.
Arroyo has
also had to deal with the thorn in her side that is
Estrada, who has been languishing in a hospital
detention room while his trial on plunder charges
continues. Estrada has played the all-important pity
angle to the hilt. His most recent performance came on
Christmas night when he was interviewed live on national
television from his detention room. He looked meek,
almost sad, as he tearfully proclaimed his innocence,
declaring that he is still the legitimate president of
the Philippines. Some skeptics have said that Arroyo's
decision not to run is a stab at reclaiming the pity
Estrada seems to have cornered.
On top of this,
Estrada's trial has not been going well for the
government. Prosecutors have presented some 50 witnesses
but have yet to prove conclusively that Estrada actually
took the money he is accused of stealing. Almost all of
the evidence against him has been hearsay. As Estrada
himself likes to point out, he cannot possibly be found
innocent because that would mean his accusers would have
to return him immediately to Malacanang Palace and the
presidency.
In all, the current political and
social mess in the Philippines boils down to the fact
that the government of President Arroyo operates with
little legitimacy. Arroyo rose to power on very
controversial - some say illegal - circumstances. She
has been trying to govern with a fuzzy mandate called
People Power, which is surely no substitute for a clear
electoral mandate. It is the very reason her government
has little strength to fend off the attackers from every
conceivable angle. It is also why foreign investment in
the country has slowed to a trickle.
Arroyo
obviously believes that removing herself from the
political fray will raise her standing in the public
eye. She may even be calculating that her suddenly
non-political ways will win over the public so much that
they may raise a clamor for her once again to throw her
hat into the political arena and run after all. It is a
risky gambit. What seems very possible is that her
lame-duck status could bring about more drift. Her
cabinet members will start to resign as they jockey for
political position. Her allies in Congress will have
little reason to go along with her initiatives.
Some of Arroyo's critics have been making an
interesting point: that if she were truly serious about
sacrificing for the good of the nation, she would simply
resign, along with her vice president as well. Under the
Philippine constitution, a snap presidential election
can only be held when both the president and the vice
president resign together.
Why hold snap
presidential elections? Because stability and growth can
only come with a new president conclusively elected
through the ballot. With new leadership legitimately
elected, the Philippines can begin fresh. Anything else
is a sure recipe for more political chaos and social
unrest. And 15 months of going nowhere is not going to
be healthy for a wounded country like the Philippines.
Ted Lerner is the author of the
book Hey, Joe - A Slice of the City, an American in
Manila, as well as an upcoming book of Asian travel
stories, The Traveler and the Gate Checkers. He
can be reached at tedlheyjoe@yahoo.com.
(©2003 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights
reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for
information on our sales and syndication policies.)
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