HEY JOE
History awaits US soldiers in Sulu islands
By Ted Lerner

MANILA - For nearly 50 years the American community in Manila has gathered each February to celebrate the birthday of George Washington, the legendary steely general who led America to independence and became the country's first president.

The annual George Washington Ball is, in actuality, a charity event, and one of the big social occasions of the year for the large American community in its former colony. But at this year's ball at the stately US embassy on the shores of Manila Bay, there was a noticeable difference from previous years. It was the first time in the history of the ball that a representative of the president of the Philippines bothered to show up.

It may seem strange that with such a long, intertwined history that no such official has ever bothered to respond to the regular invitations. It could be because the money raised at the event goes to help not Filipinos, but down and out Americans in the Philippines. It could also be that Philippine officials of the past, regardless of their actual reliance on the United States, never wanted to make it appear publicly that they were kowtowing to the all-powerful Uncle Sam.

But these are much different times in the Philippines and the presence of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo's executive secretary, Albert Romulo, at the gala speaks volumes. Arroyo obviously likes letting it be known that she is close to the Americans, particularly President George W Bush. And it's not simply because of the stature that this stance seems to bring her, as she is often referred to abroad as "one of America's staunchest allies in Asia". For Arroyo, publicly associating with everything that is American is a matter of survival. For it seems the Americans are all that she has going for her right now.

Arroyo's popularity among the electorate is at an all-time low. The economy continues to flounder and the peso is sinking fast, with the bottom nowhere in sight. Her high-profile attempts to crush criminality have failed. Arroyo has never been able to claim legitimacy of power as she was installed into the presidency under what are, to this day, constitutionally controversial circumstances. The masses who make up the majority of the Philippines' 80 million people certainly never accepted her presidency, and now many of her former supporters from the middle class and elite have abandoned her as well. Although she helped take down her predecessor, Joseph Estrada, by claiming the mantle of morality, her two years in office have been marked by one scandal after the other. Things got so bad for Arroyo that this past December, embroiled in yet another scandal that was knocking at her doorstep, she announced that she would not run for the office of president in the 2004 elections.

Most signals point to the fact that Arroyo's hold onto power comes courtesy of the military generals who put her in the top post. The generals were the ones who turned their backs on the Philippine constitution and the legitimately elected leader, Estrada. Thus the generals have wielded an inordinate amount of power under Arroyo. She has showered them with perks and there are even indications that she has little control over them. In reality, there are clues indicating that she may be the one being controlled.

There have been reports that her decision not to run for the presidency came about after the top generals told her privately they were ready to pull the plug on support. Just last week the military seemed to disobey the president's orders not to attack the forces of the Muslim separatist group, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF).

And so with little positive to show domestically, Arroyo, along with her generals, has turned to the Americans. Very much left out in the cold after being booted off their long-held military bases in the early 1990s, the Americans have enjoyed a veritable renaissance in the Philippines under Arroyo. Ever since September 11, 2001, she has been one of Bush's most ardent backers in the war on terror. Last year she allowed the annual military training exercises with the Americans to take place on Basilan island, home of the Abu Sayyaf bandit gang, accused by both governments of being a terrorist group.

It was a controversial but mostly popular move. Before September 11, the Abu Sayyaf had locally been considered nothing more than a murderous group of bandits. The group was said only to number mere hundreds. But several years of kidnappings and barbaric killings, and the Philippine military's inability to stop them, had left the public frustrated beyond words. Whether they were bandits or terrorists, most ordinary Filipinos were glad to have the Americans come along to help rid the country of the Abu Sayyaf once and for all.

Most people assumed the Americans were going to doing some fighting, but both governments went out of their way to show that the US troops were merely training their Filipino counterparts. Bringing in foreign troops for combat in the Philippines is a blatant violation of the constitution. It was said that the Filipinos would be doing the fighting and the Americans the advising and training. The Americans could only fire if they were attacked first.

On the conclusion of the six-month exercise, both governments proclaimed that the Abu Sayyaf had been defeated. The problem was, however, that the bandits merely consolidated their operations in nearby Jolo in the province of Sulu, a majority-Muslim-populated island where the group currently holds hostage three Indonesian seamen and four female Jehovah's Witnesses. Once again, Arroyo and her generals have turned to the Americans.

But this latest gambit has come under heavy criticism in the Philippines. Without any consultations with Congress or the public, Arroyo signed a secret agreement with US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld authorizing US troops to engage in combat in Jolo, an island in the Sulu archipelago. The details of the deal were leaked to several prominent US newspapers by an unidentified Pentagon official who claimed that this mission was considerably different from the Basilan one in that, this time, the Americans were going to be doing some fighting and that there would be no prescribed time limit on the operation.

"The intent is for the US troops to participate," said the official. "At this point, we're going into it, saying the mission will go on until both sides agree it is finished".

The US force will consist of 750 ground troops, 350 of whom are Green Beret special forces, with an additional 1,000 marines. The operation will be supported by Cobra attack helicopters and Harrier AV-8B attack planes standing ready aboard two ships offshore as a quick response force.

The Philippine government has tried to quell the uproar over the controversy by saying that the US reporters were duped by the Pentagon and that under no circumstances will the Americans be allowed to fight. To cover the Philippine government, the Bush administration has toned down its language as well, saying that it will not be the Philippines in the lead.

Naturally, with the cat out of the proverbial bag, nobody believes anything of the sort, especially when the Pentagon official states, "One reason for telling the reporters about the new mission in the Philippines was that Mr [Philippine press secretary Ignacio] Bunye had mischaracterized the scope of the operation that had already been agreed upon in private."

Clearly one of the benefits of having the Americans involved in the situation is that certainly nothing shady will occur with the rebels. The Abu Sayyaf has gained much of its strength because various corrupt officials and military men have let them get away with their activities in exchange for a slice of the huge ransoms that the group has managed to take. This definitely won't happen with the Americans around.

But the problem of the Abu Sayyaf is not as clear cut as shooting and eliminating a small gang of thugs. Armed gangs in Mindanao are as common as coconut trees. Wipe out one and several more will pop up in other places. Crushing poverty, lawlessness, corruption and lots and lots of loose firearms all combine to make fertile soil for violent discontent and murderous rampages.

There are indications that the Jolo operation will not be as easy or clear cut as the Basilan mission. Jolo has a terrain more favorable to the guerrillas because the jungle is not as thick and they can shoot approaching troops at a distance. And with its lack of infrastructure, it will be more difficult to bring in supplies than on Basilan. The real danger, though, may lie in history. Sulu Representative Hussein Amin said that the people of Sulu were excited about the arrival of the US troops. But not for the reasons the American and Philippine governments would want.

"For them," (the people of Sulu), Amin said, "it's their chance to avenge their forefathers who were victims of the Americans' abuses in the past." He was referring to the brutal subjugation of the people of Sulu at the beginning of the 1900s when the Americans had just begun their colonization of the Philippines. In 1906 US soldiers led by General Leonard Wood killed more than 1,000 Tausug tribespeople in Patikul, Sulu. In a land where vendettas are carried over for generations, the possibility of the locals turning on the foreign invaders over issues that have nothing to do with the war on terror is high.

"I'm afraid this might be fraught with danger," said Parouk Hussin, the governor of the Autonomous Region for Muslim Mindanao, where Sulu is situated. The people of Sulu "have not forgotten their horrible experience" under the Americans. "It was characterized by bloody confrontation, a quagmire of violent situations. It was not something pleasant to recall, and I don't want people to face the same experience." Adding to this volatile brew is the fact that the culture of the gun is extremely strong in Mindanao in general and in Sulu in particular. "People are very poor but everyone owns a gun," Hussein said.

There's also the possibility of suicide attacks. Suicide attacks are nearly unheard of in the southern Philippines these days, but back in the early 1900s, juramentados, or Muslim fanatics, would set out to kill as many foreign troops or Christians as possible before being killed themselves.

Critics of Arroyo's open invitation for the Americans have wondered aloud just where all this could be leading. They complain she is trouncing on the constitution for a political play that, with all the elements involved, could easily spiral out of control. Incredibly, the Philippine military has recently estimated that the Abu Sayyaf has only about 50 hardcore members left, with perhaps up to 200 if you include bagmen and couriers. Just why then do the Americans need such overwhelming force to go after a few dozen goons?

With the chances of completely stopping bloody criminality - whether they be called bandits, insurgents or terrorists - next to nil, critics are claiming that what the Americans are surely after is a long-term presence in the region. Several days back, Philippine and US forces opened a 10-month counter-terrorism program in the southern port city of Zamboanga. In just one year US forces have gone from using temporary shelters on the Zamboanga base to permanent residences for its troops. It's also no secret that the Americans, through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), have been pouring money into infrastructure and livelihood projects in much of the large southern island of Mindanao. This includes world-class harbor and airport facilities.

And while the constitution bars foreign military bases on Philippine soil, this minor obstacle can seemingly be sidestepped so long as there exists a problem with insurgency, or "terrorism" as the current government likes to call it.

In all, it appears that Arroyo, in an attempt to keep her floundering government in the saddle, has perhaps overstated the problem of the Abu Sayyaf in order to align herself as closely as she can possibly get to the Americans. They are all she has going for her government right now and why she's obviously eager to accept their invitations to socialize. But it's clearly a risk, as well, and one that could lead to irreparable harm to the Philippines.

Ted Lerner is the author of the book Hey, Joe - A Slice of the City, an American in Manila, as well as an upcoming book of Asian travel stories, The Traveler and the Gate Checkers. He can be reached at ted@hey-joe.net or visit www.hey-joe.net.

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