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Myanmar
problem needs Asian solution
By David Simmons
HUA HIN, Thailand - Desperate regimes, desperate measures. The coals of fire
being heaped on the heads of Myanmar's ruling generals for mounting the latest
barrier against that country's tiny steps toward democracy may be overwhelming
the bigger picture.
Myanmar's ruling junta late last week raided and closed down several offices of
the opposition National League for Democracy and put the party's leader, Nobel
laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, 57, in "protective custody" in one of its
"guesthouses". Predictably, howls of outrage poured forth from Japan, Thailand,
Australia, Britain, France, Sweden and other democracies, as well as the United
Nations.
But Myanmar, of course, is not a democratic nation and its rulers have made it
abundantly clear that they have no interest in democracy. And as the United
States spreads its tentacles around the globe in the name of promoting
"freedom" and democracy US-style, determinedly anti-reformist governments such
as those in Yangon and Pyongyang are under enormous pressure.
When you're under pressure, you either yield or you push back, which is what
North Korea famously has been doing for several months as it belligerently
antagonizes the US. Now Myanmar, already languishing under crippling if
unevenly applied international economic sanctions, is drawing its own line in
the sand.
Sanctions are always a double-edged sword, and in Myanmar's case they have
pushed the generals farther away from the West and into the arms of Asian
neighbors, notably China, India, Bangladesh and Thailand. While some of
Myanmar's emerging allies are at least nominally democratic, they tend to be
far less evangelical about spreading their preferred form of government to
other countries, especially if there's a buck to be made, than is the case with
many North American and European democracies.
Thailand, for instance, which has had a thorny relationship with Burma/Myanmar
for centuries, has under the leadership of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra
cozied up to the generals in Yangon. Border clashes still occur, but progress
has been claimed by both sides in the war against the production and smuggling
of narcotics, and a major natural-gas deal is important to both countries
despite high-pitched complaints from human-rights activists.
A powerful lobby against the junta is the Free Burma Coalition (FBC), which
over the weekend fired off memos and news releases after the latest actions
against Suu Kyi and her movement.
"This is the regime's most serious crackdown on democracy in years," said Aung
Din, FBC's director of policy. "This latest outrage proves yet again that
Burma's regime has lied to the international community and lied to the Burmese
people." (The FBC, like many opposed to the Yangon regime, prefers to call the
country by its old name, which was changed to "Myanmar" by the junta in 1989.)
Suu Kyi's latest stint as a "guest" of the regime occurred after a melee
between her supporters and those of the government in which four people were
reportedly killed and about 50 injured. The incident occurred in the northern
town of Ye-U, which Suu Kyi had included in her itinerary for a seventh tour of
the country since her release from house arrest a year ago last month.
According to the FBC and other sources, authorities simultaneously raided NLD
offices across the country, tearing down party flags and padlocking doors.
Military intelligence agents were posted outside the offices in Yangon and
Mandalay. The regime put numerous NLD leaders under house arrest, surrounding
their homes and severing telephone lines. Later universities were closed as the
generals tightened their grip on the country.
The FBC said in a news release: "The arrests and reported killings took place
after supporters of the Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA),
the political arm of Than Shwe's ruling military regime, apparently attacked
Aung San Suu Kyi and supporters of her political party in the northern town of
Ye-U. CNN reported that Suu Kyi's car was hit by gunfire. An unconfirmed number
of people were killed and dozens reported injured as NLD members and villagers
attempted to defend against the attackers."
Aung Din predicted that the incidents will prompt the US Congress to push for
more pressure on Yangon. "These killings and arrests demonstrate that increased
international pressure through sanctions and isolating [the] regime politically
and economically is the only policy option we have to press for the removal of
the regime and recognition of the 1990 democratically elected parliament," he
said.
But like the regime of Kim Jong-il in Pyongyang, the generals in Yangon are
clearly more concerned about political reform throwing them out of work than
they are about the wrath of the West. Indeed, the junta has lately been
obstinate about allowing UN envoy Razali Ismail access to the country and has
dragged its feet on reconciliatory talks with the NLD.
However, short of an Iraq-style regime change, there is little the West can do
to rid Myanmar of the junta. While unlike North Korea, Myanmar would not likely
be able to mount a credible defense against invasion by Western-backed forces,
there is no incentive for the United States and its allies - their
high-sounding rhetoric about "freeing" Iraqis and others languishing under
brutal dictatorships notwithstanding - to do so. Myanmar, unlike Iraq, has
nothing the West needs, and military intervention there or anywhere in China's
sphere would go down extremely badly in Beijing.
The ball, then, is in the court of Myanmar's Asian allies, and therefore it is
a matter of pragmatism, not ideology, philosophy or even short-term economics.
North Korea's misbehavior annoys its ally China not, of course, because it
annoys the Western democracies or because North Koreans don't have enough to
eat, but because the Pyongyang regime's primary export is instability, which is
against China's regional interests. In the same way, it can be credibly argued
that Asia, including China, India, Thailand et al, would be a better place if
the Yangon generals went into retirement and let their people progress socially
and economically.
Once Myanmar's Asian allies decide - for Asian, not Western, reasons - that
Myanmar must reform, the "exit" sign will at long last shine brightly for the
generals in Yangon, and the future of Myanmar's people will finally be theirs
to choose.
(Copyright 2003 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact
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