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Yangon feels the tightening of the
screws
By Nelson Rand
BANGKOK
- The detention of Myanmese opposition leader Daw Aung
San Suu Kyi and the crackdown against pro-democracy
supporters in the country could be the beginning of the
end for the ruling junta, the country's two largest
ethnic rebel groups say.
"The end is coming,"
said the Karen National Union's foreign spokesman Saw
Ner Dah Mya, referring to the latest developments in the
country, which climaxed last Friday with the detainment
of Suu Kyi after a violent clash between her supporters
and a pro-government group.
The latest crackdown
is a sign of internal fighting within the ruling junta -
known as the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC)
- said Ner Dah, who also commands a battalion of Karen
guerrillas who have been fighting for an independent
homeland in eastern Myanmar since 1948.
"People
are confused, the SPDC is splitting," he said in a
telephone interview.
Analysts say the military
junta has been at odds in recent years over how to
handle Suu Kyi, who won a landslide election in 1990 but
has never been allowed to govern. She has spent much of
the last 14 years under house arrest, but a United
Nations-brokered deal in 2000 raised hopes of bringing
change and national reconciliation for the country.
Since being released from her last stint of
house arrest in May 2002, Suu Kyi and her National
League for Democracy (NLD) party had been enjoying a
relative newfound freedom in their political activities.
Drawing large crowds to her various speeches and
political trips throughout the country over the past
year, the junta naturally became alarmed and drew the
line last Friday.
During a political tour in
northern Myanmar, violence broke out between Suu Kyi's
supporters and a pro-government group that may have
killed dozens, although the government has put the death
toll at four. Conflicting reports have emerged about the
fate of Suu Kyi, with some sources saying that she was
hurt in the clash. The government has denied this,
saying she is in "protective custody" at an undisclosed
location.
Whether she was hurt or not, last
weekend's crackdown has in effect put an end to the
stalled talks between the opposition and the government.
Sai Wansai, general secretary of the Shan
Democratic Union (SDU), whose military faction has been
waging war against the junta for the past four decades,
said: "Most of our senior members view this as an end to
the dialogue process."
Like Ner Dah of the Karen
National Union, he too pointed to a possible split
within the military. "The recent crackdown could be
viewed as the junta's hardliners gaining an upper hand
in the SPDC," he said.
Chaiyachoke
Chulasiriwong, a politics professor at Bangkok's
Chulalongkorn University, told the Associated Press this
week that he believed the junta's second in command,
Maung Aye, was responsible for the crackdown to counter
the more liberal factions associated with the junta's No
3, General Khin Nyunt.
If so, then this latest
crackdown on Suu Kyi could be more than a struggle for
the military to hold on to power, but an internal
conflict among the generals who have been ruling the
country since 1962. With its economy in ruins, these
developments come at a critical time for the junta.
"All and all," said the SDU's Sai Wansai, "the
junta is scared to death that the people will revolt and
[this] could spell the beginning of the end."
Meanwhile, the country is officially cracked
down on, Myanmar style. Top aides of Suu Kyi are in
detention, the NLD offices are shut, and the country's
universities are sealed. State media, as usual, are
silent on the latest events, with a front-page headline
in Wednesday's New Light of Myanmar reading, "Central
Committee for Iodine Deficiency meets".
World
leaders have condemned the crackdown and have urged the
junta to immediately release Suu Kyi. US President
George W Bush said on Monday that he was "deeply
concerned" and that "the military authorities should
release Aung San Suu Kyi and her supporters immediately,
and permit her part headquarters to reopen". UN
Secretary General Kofi Annan said Myanmar is at a
"critical juncture" in its political transition, and
that Suu Kyi should be released immediately and allowed
to cooperate with the junta to bring national
reconciliation.
But if the past 15 years are any
indication of how far the international community will
step in to produce change in Myanmar, it looks as if the
country's ruling generals have only themselves to
fear.
(Copyright 2003 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd.
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