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Canberra picks the US over
Asia
By Alan Boyd
SYDNEY -
Prime Minister John Howard has sent shock waves across
the Australian political landscape by scuttling rumors
of his imminent retirement. And the outcome could be an
early poll that will test Canberra's strained
relationship with Asia.
After four years at the
helm of the ruling Liberal-National Party coalition,
Howard had been expected to step down as premier before
the next election, which is scheduled to be called by
November 2004. Instead, he will lead the conservative
alliance into a torrid campaign that will be marred by
internal leadership challenges and factional strains on
both sides of the political divide.
In Howard's
own Liberal Party, supporters of jilted deputy leader
Peter Costello are fuming over what they see as a
betrayal by the prime minister, after numerous hints
that he was preparing a graceful exit.
And in
the opposition Labor Party, incumbent leader Simon Crean
faces a revolt next week from a faction allied to his
predecessor, Kim Beazley, who they believe has a better
chance of unseating Howard in the looming poll.
"The best solution all 'round would be for
Costello to switch horses and lead the Labor Party,"
columnist Mike Carlton commented wryly on an affair that
has galvanized Australia's normally sedate parliament.
Costello, currently the treasurer, has made no
secret of his fury over Howard's decision, which was
motivated by strong lobbying from the grassroots Liberal
Party membership against a midstream leadership change.
Easily the most visible national politician,
Howard is riding a wave of popular support after
Australia's participation in the Iraq conflict and a
recent record of economic growth that is almost
unmatched in the developed world. Opinion polls give him
a clear lead over his anointed successor, Costello, and
a handy 20-point edge over the dour Crean, with most
surveys suggesting that Labor would be decimated if an
election were held now.
But Beazley, more
charismatic and personable, is only 10 points behind
Howard, though it still appears unlikely that he will be
able to capitalize sufficiently on the chilly wind
blowing through the Liberal Party.
"Not even
Beazley's backers think he can win against Howard; they
just think he would not get beaten so badly," noted Mike
Seccombe, another political commentator. "Little wonder
then that Howard was tempted to push retirement into the
political never-never."
He may also be tempted
to call an early election to make the most of Labor's
disarray before unfavorable external conditions rein in
the economy and chip away at the government's
popularity.
Almost any change in the political
leadership would be good for Australia's on-again,
off-again relationship with Asia, which has almost
dropped off the agenda since Howard took over. A 2001
policy shift in effect downgraded the importance of
regional ties by restoring the US-dominated Western
security alliance as the core of Australia's diplomatic
strategy.
Nurtured by a succession of Labor
governments since the early 1970s, the Asia-first policy
was also endorsed by the two Liberal coalitions that
preceded Howard, and by Beazley when he was opposition
leader. It led to the establishment of the Asia Pacific
Economic Cooperation (APEC) caucus, closer trade links
with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)
and active participation in the ASEAN Regional Forum
(ARF).
The preoccupation with US ties, and
especially Washington's forays into Afghanistan and
Iraq, has weakened Canberra's diplomatic standing with
predominantly Muslim Indonesia and Malaysia, as well as
such traditional allies as the Philippines. At an
economic level, the government has backed away from
Labor's long-standing goal of securing ASEAN membership
in favor of preferential trade accords: the US is the
first target.
"By continuing to identify the
United States as its preferred trading partner, the
Howard government is relegating Australia's trade with
Asia - the region that buys 55 percent of our exports,"
contended Craig Emerson, Labor's trade spokesman.
In fact, free-trade agreements or other
bilateral accords are also being negotiated with China,
Singapore, Thailand, Japan and South Korea, which
together contribute five times as much export income as
the United States. But leadership aspirants Costello,
Crean and Beazley have nonetheless expressed concern
over Australia's deteriorating share of Asian markets at
a time when consumer demand is climbing.
The
value of shipments to East Asia fell by 4 percent in the
final quarter of 2002, despite average economic growth
in that region of 6.7 percent. It was the only global
market where export earnings declined. While it is
difficult to relate this slump to cooling diplomatic
ties, there is little doubt that Australia's standing in
Asia has been damaged by perceptions that it is dancing
to an American tune.
"I think the diplomatic
service is putting every bit as much effort into the
relationship [with Asia] now as it did under Labor. What
perhaps has changed is that Canberra is listening to
Washington first and then swapping notes with Kuala
Lumpur or Jakarta," said a retired Australian diplomat.
"We are seeing the downside [of this approach] in the
security arena, when the anti-terrorism people start to
question Australia's strategic objectives before they
get to the nitty-gritty of operational liaison."
Costello, who is still given an outside chance
of unseating Howard if the election is delayed, is a
firm supporter of re-engagement with Asia and was one of
the first to decry Australia's declining influence
following the Bali bombings and subsequent terrorism
alerts. He also has little patience with the alarmist
rhetoric, usually aimed at apparent threats from Islamic
extremists, that Howard has used so effectively to
underpin his image as a strong leader, yet causes such
disquiet among Australia's immediate neighbors.
Crean and Beazley will both revert to Labor's
traditional pro-Asia line if they get their respective
tilts at power; the only real difference in policies
would be a question of emphasis. As an economist and
former trade-union leader, Crean would return trade ties
with Asia to the top of the agenda, though his preferred
route - a "joint leadership role with China" - might not
win him friends elsewhere in the region.
"A
stronger bilateral relationship between Australia and
China can be the building block for closer economic and
political engagement in Asia," Crean said during a visit
to China last year. "Two decades ago it might have been
possible to talk about regional economic integration and
great power relations without China. But that is no
longer the case," he said, adding that closer engagement
with Asia was "our highest foreign-policy objective".
Beazley is stronger on security issues, despite
a conservative record during his previous term as
opposition leader that stamped him as being too soft on
terrorism and probably cost Labor the 2001 general
election. He wants a stronger Australian anti-terrorism
presence in Asia and backs the paramount role of the
United Nations in diffusing tensions, while still
recognizing the importance of the defense alliance with
the United States.
"At the end of the day, the
alliance is going to remain central to Australia's
security interests whether it is Beazley calling the
shots or Howard, or indeed any other politician," said
the diplomat.
"Asia is never going to get equal
treatment because one has to look after one's own
security interests first. Having said this, they would
like to see a leader in Canberra who recognizes the
importance of confidence-building and takes the time to
listen to his neighbors."
(Copyright 2003 Asia
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