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Hitting Yangon where it
counts
By Marwaan Macan-Markar
BANGKOK - By moving to impose the toughest
sanctions on Myanmar so far of any Western country, the
US Congress may finally give the junta an overdue lesson
on the economic pain such punitive measures can bring.
The prospect of this lesson in the offing has
not been lost on Myanmese exiles in Thailand and groups
seeking an end to Yangon's military dictatorship.
They are also banking on the fact that Myanmar's
rulers are not taking the political invective flowing
out of Washington - including measures in Congress to
bar the entry of Myanmese goods - to mean it can be
business as usual.
"The effort by the United
States on the military government is what is needed. The
sanctions are tougher than the past efforts," said Zinn
Linn of the National Coalition Government of the Union
of Burma, the government-in-exile set up after the 1990
parliamentary elections whose results were ignored by
Yangon.
The measures sought by the US Congress
"will cause a stir because the language is so strong",
said Debbie Stothard of the Alternative ASEAN Network on
Burma (ALTSEAN), a regional group lobbying for human
rights and democracy in Myanmar, officially known as
Burma until the junta changed its name in 1989. "It will
revive our faith that sanctions can produce change, as
it did in South Africa during apartheid," she said.
The leaders of the junta, too, are now conscious
of what awaits them after their crackdown on opposition
leader Aung San Suu Kyi and her supporters, said Aung
Zaw, editor of The Irrawaddy, a magazine on Myanmese
affairs published in northern Thailand. "That comes out
in what has been said before and after the May 30
incident."
On May 30, the military regime
triggered global outrage after Suu Kyi and members of
her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), were
attacked by individuals linked to the junta while they
were visiting supporters in a town north of Yangon.
Although the junta maintained that four people
died in the clashes and 50 were injured, human-rights
groups believe that more than 70 people were killed and
more than 100 NLD members were injured or are missing.
Noble laureate Suu Kyi and 18 NLD officials were
subsequently whisked away by the junta and are being
kept in "protective custody".
"Before May 30,
the military leaders were saying that sanctions were an
imaginary fear, but after the clashes the message coming
out hints of a genuine fear of what can happen," said
Aung Zaw. "The generals are concerned, because sanctions
are one way to cut the lifeline of the regime."
According to Zinn Linn, the leaders of the State
Peace and Development Council (SPDC), as the military
government is known, have even been making public
statements about a "neo-colonialist effort to crush us
through sanctions".
The sanctions being put in
place by the US Congress, especially the ban on imports
from Myanmar, will hit Yangon where it counts most,
because the United States is the principal market for
Myanmese-made goods, according to a report on the impact
of sanctions being prepared by ALTSEAN.
In 2001,
Myanmar shipped US$456 million worth of goods to US
markets, up from $443 million in 2000, reveals the
report due to be published next month. The European
Union, which has been a consistent second after the US
market from 1995-2001, imported $404 million worth of
goods from Myanmar in 2001.
Between 1995 and
2001, Myanmese exports to the United States, the
European Union, Australia and Canada increased by an
average of 435 percent, the report states. "While the
SPDC is making concerned efforts to develop trade
regionally, it would be difficult at best to replace
these major markets," it says.
"This [US ban] is
serious, because no one else has banned imports from
Burma," said Stothard. "It will drastically reduced the
flow of US dollars, which the SPDC needs."
Congress is also pushing for a freeze of assets
in the United States belonging to the regime and its
leaders, and for Washington to oppose any loans to
Myanmar from international financial institutions such
as the World Bank.
These sweeping measures were
never the case in the past, when Western governments
talked about the threat of sanctions or imposed "tough
measures" to bring about political change in Myanmar.
Even when Washington banned on new US
investments in Myanmar in 1997, the prospect of Yangon
crippling under the economic strain was not amply
evident. "A lot of US companies managed to bypass the
1997 law, although campaigns in the US by groups like
the Free Burma Coalition have led to some companies
pulling out of Burma," said Stothard.
But the
tough US moves may well make it easier for other Western
governments to take more action against Myanmar, or at
least put the spotlight on the economic ties that other
Western nations have with Yangon.
For instance,
Britain has spoken out against the military regime, but
has not put the brakes on its investments in Myanmar. By
2000 the United Kingdom had close to $1.4 billion worth
of investments in the country, according to ALTSEAN's
findings.
"The common perception that Asian
countries are the largest investors in Burma is a
misconception," states the ALTSEAN report. "During the
1990-2000 period Western countries disbursed more than
80 percent of investments that they committed,
accounting for about 65 percent of actual FDI" (foreign
direct investments).
Countries such as the UK
argued that greater economic clout provided
opportunities to work from within to elicit change.
Myanmar's Southeast Asian neighbors, too, opted for
"constructive engagement" to nudge the junta toward
openness.
But in the wake of the US Congress
moves, it may soon prove embarrassing to be seen
cuddling with Myanmar's strongmen for the sake of
profits and talking the language of democracy at the
same time.
(Inter Press Service)
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