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Myanmar: Rift within the
junta
By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK
- The future of Myanmese pro-democracy leader Aung San
Suu Kyi may be in the balance.
"There are
assassins in the country," said Foreign Minister Win
Aung, "and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi is in custody for her
own protection." No one has taken these allegations
seriously, but there is a strong sense that the
opposition leader's safety may in danger.
United
Nations envoy Razali Ismail, who met government leaders
and Suu Kyi on his last visit, is also convinced that
the military junta wants to shield her from danger.
So for the time being at least, Suu Kyi remains
in custody, where she has been since the end of May
after an attack on her motorcade and supporters by what
US diplomats have called a premeditated ambush by
government-supported thugs.
"Daw Aung San Suu
Kyi will be released in due course," Win Aung told his
counterparts at the foreign ministers' meeting of the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in
Cambodia on Monday. "Don't press us to commit ourselves
to a timeframe and date of releasing her," he said. "The
important thing is that the will [to free her] is
there."
Whether this happens - and when -
largely depends on what is happening within the military
hierarchy. For some time now, there has been growing
evidence of a rift within the army's top ranks over what
to do with Suu Kyi and whether to start direct talks
with her.
The top military leader, General Than
Shwe, clearly felt that there was no need to negotiate
with the opposition. The hardliners who share his view
have led the campaign against Suu Kyi as she traveled
around the countryside.
But not everyone within
Myanmar's ruling State Peace and Development Council
(SPDC) seems to share this approach.
The
pragmatists - believed to be centered on the military
intelligence chief, General Khin Nyunt - were prepared
to talk to Suu Kyi and to engage the international
community on political and economic reform in the
country. They are clearly embarrassed by what went on
upcountry before she was detained.
"It is highly
significant that General Than Shwe was out of town
during most of Razali's visit," said an Asian diplomat
in Yangon. He reportedly went to a seaside resort
shortly after the envoy's arrival and remained there
until Razali left for Kuala Lumpur.
This has
raised crucial questions about Than Shwe's position and
authority. Diplomats are intrigued by the fact that for
nearly two weeks after the May 30 attack against Suu
Kyi, there was no coverage of the general in the
state-run media. "This is more than curious as the media
usually follow and document his every move - especially
when he leaves the capital and when he returns," said a
Yangon-based diplomat.
In the past few days, the
senior general has been back on the front pages and
television news - perhaps signifying that Myanmar's
senior leaders are resolving their differences. But
doubts remain about whether there have been any major
realignments with the top leadership.
"The are
signs of a power struggle going on in [Yangon]," said a
retired senior Asian diplomat who has close ties with
Myanmar but did not want to be identified. "There are
few public manifestations of this. But in the next few
months there is likely to be a major shakeup of the top
brass - similar to what happened some 10 years ago when
General Saw Maung was pushed out."
Many of these
military leaders saw the start of the dialogue process
as something that could guarantee the army a long-term
role in the country's political future. Now they realize
the process is falling apart, and with it, their grasp
on power.
Military sources close to Than Shwe
say he loathes Suu Kyi, and refuses to have her name
mentioned in his vicinity. "The very mention of her name
throws the senior general into a fit," said a senior
Asian diplomat, adding that Asian leaders such as
Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi were advised
not to mention her name during their meetings last year.
There certainly appears to have been an intense
debate within Myanmar's military leadership - possibly
confined to the triumvirate of Than Shwe, Maung Aye and
Khin Nyunt - over whether to allow Razali access to Suu
Kyi. In the end, General Maung Aye intervened and
sanctioned the visit to the opposition leader.
"What is now clear is that General Maung Aye is
exercising power - even in the national reconciliation
process, which he had kept well away from since it
started," said a Yangon-based Western diplomat. "This
may signal the turning point in the dialogue too."
In the past three years during his trips to
Yangon, Razali has not met Maung Aye - except when he
met all three top leaders, at which occasions Khin Nyunt
took the lead.
But the dialogue Razali helped
broker between the generals and the opposition leader is
in trouble. Even UN officials associated with the envoy
say "there is no real process at present".
Yet
the latest crisis may provide an opportunity to get
substantive talks started. It is now up to Myanmar's
military rulers to make the first move. "They have to
let her out if they want to continue with national
reconciliation," said Razali. "You can't do it with one
party locked up."
Two of Myanmar's top three
generals have assured Razali this will happen soon. But
"they must do something now to indicate that are serious
about moving quickly to discussing things with her," he
said, "a point I also made to them after meeting her."
In the space of two weeks the pendulum may have
swung back in favor of the pragmatists - those who want
to talk to Suu Kyi and realize they must implement
political and economic reform.
Suu Kyi is only
likely to be released after the struggle within
Myanmar's military leadership is resolved. That would
certainly signal the start of a real political dialogue.
"Now there is a very real possibility of serious
political talks starting some time in the future," said
a UN official. "But like everything in Burma, it is by
no means certain - it depends on developments in
[Yangon]."
(Inter Press Service)
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