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Golden opportunities in northern
Myanmar
By Qin Chaoying
 The
Golden Triangle is a kind of cork on the development of
South and East Asia. Strategically located on the
borders of China, India and Thailand, it de facto
hinders the development of communications and exchanges
among these areas. Roads are blocked and normal trade is
made impossible, but from here instability spreads all
over neighboring areas. Drugs - particularly heroin,
opium and methamphetamine - are sold from here to the
rest of Asia. Drug money and criminal organizations cast
their tentacles from here. Gangs and interest groups
spin from here spurring the political divide among these
neighboring countries that help the gangs' survival.
In a way, the greatest concrete strategic
obstacles to the process of Asian integration are in
this single region, northern Myanmar. The solution to
its problem is thus crucial for the whole of Asia. The
following is a proposal that envisages a strategy to
help solve the issue peacefully.
The
background and the elements of a solution
In the
past 10 years, trade in narcotics has increased
continuously all over the world. According to some
estimates, its global value has risen from US$500
billion in 1993 to about $1 trillion, roughly the amount
of the total capital flow of three big strategic
industries, namely information, finance and health.
Drugs, beside harming people's health and inflicting
mounting damage on society, have become a huge onus on
global economic activity as they severely affect global
economic and financial order.
The Golden
Triangle area is notorious for drug production. In order
to eradicate this problem, many governments and
organizations all over the world, including China, have
participated over several years in local anti-drug
activities. There is a common understanding on the
issue: the substitution of crops is the only strategy to
eradicate the problem of drug production in the region.
At present, the number of drug users worldwide
exceeds 200 million. The World Health Organization (WHO)
estimates that the number of persons using opium, heroin
and related drugs is more than 176 million. Around the
Golden Triangle, it is estimated that drug addicts in
Myanmar number more than 400,000; 500,000 in Thailand;
150,000 in Malaysia; and more than 300,000 in northern
Vietnam.
The latest report from the
International Criminal Police Organization (Interpol)
states that before 1995 heroin produced in the Myanmese
part of the Golden Triangle constituted more than 70
percent of world production. Afterward, Myanmar's share
of the world drug market was taken over by South
American countries, but its volume of production has
certainly not decreased. According to data from the
United Nations, the poppy-growing area did not
experience any change in the period.
In 1995 the
China Society for Strategy and Management Research
(CSSMR), a Chinese non-governmental organization (NGO),
started a program to develop northern Myanmar and
eradicate drugs from the area. Since that time, CSSMR
has obtained some good results and has gained plenty of
experience. This ongoing program has entered a
substantive phase. It received authorization to proceed
and the support of the central government of Myanmar,
plus the approval of the local authorities.
CSSMR's field experience has led it to believe
that the substitution of crops is absolutely
indispensable for drug control in northern Myanmar and
in the Golden Triangle region as a whole, but it does
not get to the heart of the problem. It is necessary to
change radically the characteristics of the local
economy. This, accompanied by a program to help the
local people build modern administrative institutions
and establish the rule of law, it will eventually lead
to the peaceful eradication of poppies and the end of
the production of heroin. For this purpose, it is
necessary to take into consideration the long-term
development of the local economy, which should fit the
local natural and cultural environment.
If the
only measure adopted is the substitution of crops, this
will eventually only lead to a new surge in crops used
for the production of drugs.
Based on this
evaluation, CSSMR's basic orientation is to establish a
non-governmental multilateral international cooperation
institution that all countries involved and their armed
forces can accept. This should be suited for the
complicated situation of the drug-producing region of
the Golden Triangle in order to attain a stable foothold
in the area and directly mobilize the positive elements
of the local nationalities and all concerned sides.
CSSMR believes that even just the beginning of
an international effort to solve the problem of drugs in
northern Myanmar could usher in a new era of development
in Asia. In the late 1980s the peace process in Cambodia
- until then a Cold War battlefield and crossroads of
the conflicting interests of Thailand, Vietnam and
China, with some involvement also by the United States
and Japan - boosted regional confidence and trade, which
triggered a new wave of investment in the region and
laid the foundation for the miracle of economic
development in East Asia. As is well known, this lasted
until the 1997 financial crisis. As northern Myanmar is
wedged among China, India and Southeast Asia, a solution
to its problem could ease exchanges between these three
continent-size areas and thus boost development in the
region and in the world.
Here is the state of
the program conducted by CSSMR.
1) The authorities of
the eastern Danbang second special zone offered overall
cooperation and active participation.
2) The Myanmese
government agreed to CSSMR sending personnel to the
designated development areas to undertake surveys.
3)
The Myanmese government agreed to the use of Chinese
planes by CSSMR in the designated area to conduct aerial
examination.
4) The Myanmese government welcomes the
idea that CSSMR is to coordinate the participation in
investment, development and aid of the Chinese and other
governments, non-governmental organizations, enterprises
and individuals.
5) The investment program, the
drug-control programs, the non-profit and development
programs for the minority areas in the border regions
all are granted preferential treatment and government
support.
6) The expert group of CSSMR has obtained
good results in its preliminary examination of the
natural resources in the Wa area.
In addition,
with regard to the crucial aerial surveys, if there is a
need for future expansion of the scope of the surveys,
this can be discussed; the Myanmese government provides
local support and refueling facilities.
The
advantages and opportunities inherent in the ongoing
program deserve special emphasis:
1) The Wa region
shares a common border with China, and people on both
sides of the border share the same language and the same
cultural traditions, so communication is relatively
convenient.
2) CSSMR is an NGO; as such, thanks to a
more effective use of international resources, the
support of the concerned countries, enterprises and
individuals, can play a role of bridge for the peaceful
local development.
3) In the period between 1995 and
2001 the CSSMR established a fundamental level of trust
with the Myanmese side through effective work on the
ground.
4) The elimination of drugs, the development
of the economy and the construction of a stable
borderland can obtain the support of the Chinese and
Myanmese governments and people.
5) The discrepancies
in the price of commodities and services between that
area and other regions create an opportunity for trade
that can be pivotal in developing the local economy.
6) Currently Myanmar is relatively stable within its
borders, yet there is a lack of funds and technology,
and international sanctions create a great opportunity
to get started with the implementation of a
drug-substitution program.
Detailing the
CSSMR program
CSSMR has obtained the
authorization to develop the eastern Danbang 2nd special
zone, which is a Wa area of 15,000 square kilometers,
for the most part consisting of mountains, rivers and
highland. The population is about 400,000. Forty percent
of the consumption of grains is not locally produced.
The area producing opium corresponds to 70 percent of
the total output of Myanmar and some 43,000 hectares.
The primary production potentials of the area include
gold, gems, small-scale mining, as well as grains and
timber. There are some small machine-repair shops. The
local transportation and communication facilities are
backward, the education and sanitation levels very low.
The central Myanmese government has invested little in
the past 12 years in the Wa area, and basically only in
infrastructure, although not enough for development
needs. At present the authorities of the Wa area are in
fairly good control and have an internal need - as well
as the wish - to develop an economic alternative to
drugs.
The long-term CSSMR plan for northern
Myanmar is divided into three phases: investigating the
resources; drawing a plan for opening up and
development; and gradually implementing the plan.
First, it is necessary to conduct a full
investigation on the conditions for development in
northern Myanmar. Then, the second phase should be to
try to collect capital and projects on the basis of this
investigation. For this purpose a center for the
development of the region could be established that
would coordinate the efforts of all neighboring
countries and the concerned international community.
This center should be concerned with the cultural as
well as economic development of the region and should
draft a ten-year plan that could be subjected to
Myanmar's central authorities for approval.
The
third phase should focus on the development of the
natural resources, infrastructure, crops replacement,
cultural and health care and tourism.
The
exploitation of natural resources should be conducted
with a full environmental awareness in order not to
spoil the local environment. The natural resources of
northern Myanmar are plentiful, as the region is the
richest in the whole of Asia. In Asia there is a huge
demand for forestry products, which could be provided by
this region. Furthermore there are plenty of precious
stones and gold. The local economy could well thrive on
forestry, precious metal and stones, and tourism.
In addition to this, there is a need to build up
infrastructure: roads, power plants, crop-processing
facilities, telecommunication. Beside facilitating
exchanges between northern Myanmar and bordering
countries, this would improve the quality of jobs
available to the local people. This in turn would be
extremely helpful to improve the general cultural level
and enhance their legal awareness on the harm caused by
consumption and trafficking of drugs.
On
substitution crops, CSSMR would recommend the plants
used in Chinese traditional medicine, particularly
suitable for growing in the local climate. These plants
would certainly have a market in China and elsewhere.
The most important aspect of this development
process is the possibility of creating a sustainable
cash flow, which would decrease the reliance on funds
from international organizations and governments. At a
broader level, it could break the vicious cycle of
planting poppies.
The human basis for the
development program
To eliminate the difficulties
of drugs' eradication, it is necessary to heed the
mobilization of the positive elements in the local
population.
In particular, the armed forces of
northern Myanmar possess three important positive
elements that can facilitate the anti-drug work
supported by international cooperation. As compared with
the cartels of Medellin or Cali, Colombia, the
advantages are significant:
1) South American
drug-trafficking cartels are only profit-minded. The
Golden Triangle's armed groups traffic drugs to finance
their ultimate political goals of independence or
autonomy.
2) The relationship between South American
drug-trafficking cartels and drug farmers is purely
commercial. Farmers are de facto hired by
drug-trafficking cartels. The relationship in the Golden
Triangle between drug-trafficking armed groups and poppy
farmers is more ethnic - it is that of "chief of a
tribe" and "ruler and subjects". The production of drugs
and trafficking is regulated by old tribal rules.
3)
South American drug-trafficking groups and drugs are
symbiotic. If drug trafficking is eliminated, these
groups would also disappear. For this reason they will
not disappear without eliminating the demand for drugs.
The Golden Triangle nationalist armies existed before
their engagement in drug trafficking and there is not a
necessary relation between their existence and the
eradication of drug trafficking. Actually, under certain
conditions they want the elimination of drugs. In fact,
Kun Sha, as head of the armed forces of the Shan ethnic
group, has already pleaded to the world to help the Shan
people lead the war on drugs. From 1973 the Shan started
to produce almost every year plans to control and
eradicate drug production and trafficking: the "six-year
anti-drugs plan", the "five-to-seven-year
poppy-substitution plan", etc. The so-called "New Heroin
Kingdom of Northern Myanmar Wa Liberation Front" in 1994
published a series of resolutions to strengthen drugs
control, which stipulated explicitly that drug
traffickers would receive five levels of punishment up
to the death penalty. The Shan eastern alliance in July
1995 published an "announcement against drugs"
forbidding trafficking in its area. The Guogan
Democratic Alliance at the end of 1995 drafted an
anti-drugs decree "to stop completely all drug
activities from January 1, 1996" and "help people
develop proper production", and issued regulations on
tax breaks to encourage normal economic activities.
Lately the Golden Triangle has developed two
favorable conditions that could be conducive to the
fundamental solution of the problem. The first is that a
high official of the Myanmese government announced that
"public or concealed armies from minority people in the
forest areas or other political organizations will be
allowed to retain their armed organization within the
borders of the country provided they do not disturb
again the domestic public order, and cooperate with the
government in developing the economy". This new policy,
recognizing the objective reality, was well received by
the armed forces of the various ethnic groups, and more
than ten organized armed groups have signed a ceasefire
agreement with the government. The northern part of Shan
state, near the Chinese border, regained peace, and this
creates an opportunity for international economic
cooperation for eradicating drugs. Second, some armed
ethnic groups and autonomous political groups took
advantage of this period of peace to start off with
economic development, and under strong international
(particularly Chinese) pressure certain results in
combating drug production have been achieved.
The non-governmental multilateral
international approach
The principles of
non-government multilateral international cooperation
are the following. First, avoid the difficulties of
penetrating the Golden Triangle experienced by official
organizations in the past. Second, establish an
organization headed by highly prestigious international
figures who would be able to coordinate international
organizations and related countries and can be accepted
by the ethnic groups of the Golden Triangle and the
Myanmese government.
So far the international
community has sponsored two methods in the Golden
Triangle to crack down on drugs: first, the use of
military force to enforce anti-drug policies. This
method, although sometimes successful to a degree, was a
failure overall. The proof is that heroin production in
the area has not diminished, but rather has increased
greatly. Another method was implemented in northern
Thailand: the crop-substitution plan. This program, with
the support of four UN institutions and 15 countries and
organizations, obtained very positive results. But there
is still a problem: it is impractical to use Thailand's
anti-drug experience in the complicated situation of the
Golden Triangle. The northern Thailand program is based
on assistance given to each household in the mountain
region to support drug-crop replacement, and this needs
a peaceful environment and local recognition of the
legitimacy and authority of the Thai government. By
contrast, in northern Myanmar armed forces of the
different ethnic groups set up separatist power centers
in a vast mountain area, while the Myanmese government
lacks sufficient authority. In any case, the result was
that the positive achievements of the northern Thailand
substitution program created a wave of drugs that almost
drowned Myanmar, as the cultivation took deeper roots
over the Myanmese border.
It is crucial that the
overall plan should be feasible in the local
circumstances. The CSSMR thus proposes to start
development with the "buyout formula". This program has
the following characteristics. We need to change the
main driving force: the elements among the nationalities
now producing drugs must be mobilized to oppose drugs.
In the past, international organizations and the
countries concerned mainly tried to enforce the
anti-drug policies in northern Myanmar through the
central government and its troops, which didn't have any
real control on the key areas. This led to a situation
where international organizations and concerned
countries became the target of hostility by the ethnic
groups and their armed forces in the Golden Triangle.
The new plan will have to bring to the fore the
anti-drug activism of the people. In other words, the
local people have to be mobilized to assist and not to
oppose the anti-drug efforts. We also need to shift from
military means as the main anti drug measure to
peaceful, multifaceted economic development. If one
relies on the power of the Myanmese government and armed
forces to forbid drugs, the result will be an "anti-drug
war" that would turn into ethnic massacres between
ethnic groups and ethnic oppression. Everybody in the
Golden Triangle has seen or heard of the massacres,
arsons and plunders of the Myanmese army.
Instead, the method of buying out it is a
peaceful economic measure which makes full use of the
two advantages of the area, ie its geographical position
and its wealth of natural resources.
In the
first stage, the central goal of the buyout plan is to
enlarge the scale of the local industries and thus
establish an exchange with the local people producing
drugs. This should create a mechanism of reciprocal
interest in the expansion of the new industry and thus
progressively bring the people growing drugs within the
scope of the normal economy so they would voluntarily
give up their illegal business.
Of crucial
importance for the success of buyout development plans
is the quick formation of key industries, geared for the
needs of the domestic and foreign markets. In order to
obtain decisive effects in a not too long lapse of time
it is necessary to extensively invest in local resources
with international support. For instance: to build roads
and basic water and electricity facilities, to put in
place education facilities, to explore and develop
mineral reserves, to create an ecological agricultural
production base using modern farming methods.
This is possible only by radically changing the
economic environment and the industrial structure
centered on the single production of drugs and
connecting the area with the rest of the world; and by
using such development projects to bring the leaders of
the local minorities on our side, ie in support of the
international commodity markets. Only at that point will
we be in a position to plainly demand the tribal chiefs
to quit the production of drugs. In addition, a way out
for the old drug smugglers and warlords has to be
offered, so that they can be reintegrated in the local
society.
The pattern along which at first the
buyout industrial development would organize the
production of thousands of mountain households can be
"company + local base + farm household". In the plan for
the conversion of drug crops implemented in northern
Thailand, there was too much dispersion.
The
scattered dwellings of farmers and scattered crop
transformation can hardly constitute scale benefits and
there are neither organizational forces nor a system of
guarantees suitable to today's markets and able to help
mountain people who have converted their crops to adjust
and manage. The result is fluctuating incomes and
difficulties in entering the market to the point that
part of the farm households go back to drug production.
The operating pattern "company + local base + farm
household" pursues the combination of industry,
agriculture, commerce and science. In the initial phase
the local market must open to the world so that profit
can be generated for the thousands of households engaged
in the conversion of drug plantations. Technical
training and technical achievements can be the basic
channel for poverty relief and the promotion of wealth.
The UN could establish training centers that improve
technical knowledge to mountain people, which could
learn about the variety of plants that can substitute
for poppy crops. This does not deny the importance of
official cooperation with the prohibition of drugs and
law enforcement operations. On the contrary, the
efficacy of official cooperation and the punitive
pressure maintained through crackdowns is an essential
guarantee for the buyout development. At the same time,
the above plan also fills the gap left by the larger
international organization.
The drug-producing
areas of northern Myanmar have excellent conditions for
agricultural production. They are particularly suitable
for coffee, tea, cocoa, tobacco, pepper, sugarcane,
natural gum, bananas and plants for medicines and
spices. These high-return products could include also
special kinds of nuts from abroad and products currently
developed in Yunnan, an area from which commercial
experience can be drawn.
If we take the
production of coffee as an example, we would produce up
to 3,500 yuan per mu (US$6,340 per hectare), but the
production of opium in northern Myanmar locally yields
only 1,500 yuan per mu (about $2,720 per hectare). This
is to prove that there is a huge economic potential for
the substitution of poppies.
Furthermore, the
cultivation of grains in northern Myanmar is rather
primitive. Rice is planted only once a year. Therefore
there is a great potential for the improvement of
techniques and higher yields.
The area is ideal
for raising cattle, horses and sheep in a similar
fashion as in Australia. Australian techniques for
raising animals could be used in the area and to set up
related industries for the processing of husbandry.
There is potential for canned foods, for treatment of
wool and of leather. China and Southeast Asia could be
potential great markets for these substitution products.
All of these should be conducted with full respect for
the environment and this could be attained without
harming income.
Infrastructure to connect
Asia
Northern Myanmar is squeezed among the great
markets of China, Southeast Asia and South Asia but the
local transportation network is very backward, although
the geographical conditions are excellent. In a direct
line the distance between China and Thailand is only 150
kilometers. Therefore, opening up a road route linking
China, India and Thailand is crucial. To do this it is
necessary to open up the river communication system of
the Mekong and build a highway between Yunnan and
Thailand crossing the Jindong area in Myanmar and
connecting it with India.
In this situation
implementing hydro-power projects could solve local
power deficits and create ideal conditions for
substitution crops. There are many rivers in northern
Myanmar with a lot of water and there is a great
potential for hydro-power plants of large, medium and
small size. Besides, water can also be used to power
grain and lumber mills. Electric power produced in the
area of northern Myanmar through hydro-power plants can
also be sold to neighboring countries and the profits
could be used locally. China and Thailand could be the
first clients of this electricity.
Opening up
the mining industry could provide the first substantial
seed money for further development. In northern Myanmar
gemstones, gold, manganese, antimony have already been
discovered. Local Chinese government is at the moment
cooperating with the eastern alliance of Shan in
exploiting local manganese mines and these Shan are at
the moment leaning less on drug productions.
International companies could be also drawn to the areas
for the exploitation of local resources.
The
international tourist industry could have the double
benefit of bringing in necessary cash and exposing the
local people to the world. Northern Myanmar is near the
famous tourist attractions of northern Thailand, drawing
more than a million tourists a year. Here there are
plenty of historical relics, natural scenery and
extraordinary local customs. Furthermore, tourism could
also develop in neighboring Laos, starting a regional
economic process.
Qin Chaoying is
secretary general of Strategy and Management, a Beijing
business magazine.
(Copyright Heartland.
This version has been edited by Asia Times Online. To
subscribe to Heartland, please e-mail cassanpress@sina.com.)
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