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Disquiet as end of Mahathir era
nears
By Baradan Kuppusamy
KUALA
LUMPUR - Behind the praise and euphoria that attended
Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad's final
appearance before the ruling party he had led for 22
years lurks general disquiet over the country's future
and keen anticipation of a political realignment after
his era.
Both these tendencies could shake voter
confidence in the ruling elite ahead of general
elections expected to be held early next year, months
after Mahathir retires as prime minister and leader of
the United Malays Nationalist Organization (UMNO) in
October.
Mahathir will leave behind a power
vacuum, a disoriented bureaucracy and a Malay ruling
elite that is edgy as it maneuvers to find a place in
the post-Mahathir political order.
The jockeying
for power is made all the worse by a politically weak
successor, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, whose control over
UMNO remains untested but one who, as the incumbent
deputy prime minister, enjoys the power of legitimacy -
until challenged.
For now, there is no doubt
that Abdullah will be prime minister, bringing to
fruition a succession process that has been foiled
several times before. But his choice of running mate
from among three powerful party vice presidents is a
hotly contested and divisive issue.
"This is an
issue that is bound to cause ruptures in UMNO," Dr P
Ramasamy of Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia said in an
interview.
Under the show of unity last week,
there are strong undercurrents of dissatisfaction over
the succession issue in the party of 3 million members
that was founded in 1946.
Ironically, it was
under Mahathir's 22-year rule that the party suffered
some of its worst internal crises. The first occurred in
1989, when a court declared the party an illegal entity
after a major succession battle a year earlier that
Mahathir won.
In 1998, thousands of members left
after Mahathir, fearing a political challenge from his
hand-picked successor at the time, Anwar Ibrahim, sacked
him.
At the three-day party assembly last week,
Mahathir wrangled a public promise from the three vice
presidents - Defense Minister Najib Tun Razak, Domestic
Trade and Consumer Affairs Minister Muhyiddin Yassin and
former chief minister Muhammad Taib - that they would
not question nor challenge Abdullah's choice as running
mate.
Mahathir himself had said he feared a
power struggle after he leaves. "I am really concerned
because we have yet to understand the ethics of
contest."
More than anybody else in UMNO,
Mahathir, who had to fend off repeated challenges to his
authority, should know that the political promises he
got are easily abandoned. "Just look at the history of
UMNO - it is full of fights and breakaway factions," a
former party leader said. "Abdullah will have his hands
full."
"Holding UMNO together will be Abdullah's
greatest challenge yet, for everything else depends on
it. The real question that should be asked by any
cynical but concerned observer is: How long can he
last?" said former member of parliament Sim Kwang Yang.
For now, there is a high regard and respect that
border on adulation for Mahathir, who turned this
country of 25 million people into a respected,
cosmopolitan Islamic state with impressive economic
achievements, superb infrastructure and a highly
literate society.
But critics say that economic
success has come with a heavy price - the loss of
democratic space, supine media and near-zero tolerance
for dissent, and continued detention without trial.
Abdullah was vice president in 1998 when
Mahathir sacked Anwar, in what his camp calls a
conspiracy to undercut him after the two had a
falling-out. After Anwar was convicted of corruption and
sodomy, Mahathir appointed Abdullah as his deputy and
persuaded the party to endorse his choice without
calling for open elections.
It has been a fast
but untested climb for Abdullah, now that he is also to
be UMNO president. A former technocrat turned education
minister who was put in cold storage for three years and
eight months after he and others opposed Mahathir in
1988, Abdullah also enjoys Islamic credentials, but his
real strength is his image as the "Mr Clean" of
Malaysian politics.
Many hope Abdullah would be
more gentle, less intolerant and more accommodating than
his predecessor.
His first test would likely be
the plight of Anwar Ibrahim, now that Mahathir has
announced that any reconciliation with Anwar has to come
from his successors and only after he leaves. The
"problem" of Anwar needs a solution before UMNO faces
Malay voters again.
After all, Anwar's continued
incarceration still rankles the Malays and deeply
damages the government's standing before the Malay
electorate. Anger over his plight was a key reason
nearly 65 percent of Malay Muslims voted against the
government and for the opposition PAS party in the 1999
general election.
A reconciliation with Anwar
would be welcomed both by domestic opponents and
international critics. It would also undercut opposition
charges of political victimization and remove one of the
vestiges of Mahathir's rule that has angered Malay
voters.
"Will Abdullah release Anwar Ibrahim and
thus seek to reinvent the ideology of Malay unity by
working toward reconciling the newly emergent forces
within the Malay community?" asked Sim.
Anwar
has completed a six-year sentence for corruption. His
appeal against a nine-year sentence for sodomy is before
the country's highest court, and his application for
bail will be heard on July 14.
However, Anwar's
supporters have little faith in the court and in
Abdullah. "However you look at UMNO, one sees a tired,
listless, political machine where the vibrancy comes in
staged performances," said political commentator M G G
Pillai.
"It is a show for the world," he said,
referring to last week's party assembly. "There is no
discussion on issues and what caused the alienation
[among Malays] and how it should be removed. They did
not discuss Anwar at all."
(Inter Press
Service)
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