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AIDS pushes Thai life expectancy down
By Richard S Ehrlich

BANGKOK - AIDS has shortened the life expectancy of people in Thailand by almost one-and-a-half years, resulting in the average Thai dying just after his or her 68th birthday, and the grim downward spiral will worsen, according to a UN investigation.

"Life expectancy has dropped nearly a year-and-a-half," Hakan Bjorkman, United Nations Development Program (UNDP) deputy resident, said in a taped interview.

"The reason for that is HIV/AIDS-related mortality, which is now rising, so there is a revision of the life expectancy," he said, referring to the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) that can cause acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS). "There are over 700,000 people in Thailand living with HIV/AIDS, and that is a lot of people who are gradually becoming ill and dying.

"... In fact Thailand has been very successful in slowing the spread of the epidemic. It has actually reduced the number of new infections by 80 percent on a yearly basis. But the epidemic started 15 years ago and there are a lot of people - cumulatively 1 million people - who got infected, and they continue to become infected every year, 30,000 [new cases] a year, a lot of people," he said.

The disease can take several years to kill a person. Many of the people infected during the past 15 years are now dying and "therefore life expectancy falls".

In 1991, new infections reached a "peak" of 142,819 people, and the rate in Thailand has fallen ever since, according to UN medical data.

Of the 1 million people stricken with HIV during the past 15 years, however, an estimated 250,000 have already died, including at least 55,000 people in 2001, according to the most recent UN estimates.

In more bad news for Thais, life expectancy will get shorter and shorter in the coming years, the UNDP official warned. "AIDS-related mortality will continue to rise for a number of years because of the delay between infection and then illness and death could be 10 years. So we are now seeing that delayed impact in terms of people dying."

Thailand's modernization, improved health care, higher standard of living and other improvements had been allowing Thais to live longer, until AIDS arrived. "The life expectancy had been inching up slowly for the past 30 years and reached just over 70 years last year. It is now down to just above 68 years," Bjorkman said.

"It is a small drop, but a significant drop and ... unless these people who are living with HIV get access to these drugs that can actually prolong their lives, life expectancy will continue to fall," he said.

New anti-retroviral therapy - already produced and available in Thailand - could treat HIV and AIDS and save lives, but the slow rate of access to these medicines has caused problems, according to the UN.

Only 10,000 people have access to anti-retroviral drugs in Thailand, the UN said. The government promised to boost that number to 50,000 by the end of 2004, it added.

Bjorkman said Thailand's painful descent was discovered during the UNDP's newest Human Development Index investigation into the quality of life worldwide, made public this Tuesday.

If the death rate from AIDS were not factored in, Thailand's life-expectancy estimate would have shown a slight increase, according to UN officials.

Among the 175 nations rated in the Human Development Report for 2003, based on overall "life expectancy, educational attainment and adjusted real income", Thailand was No 74, below Romania and Saudi Arabia but above Ukraine and Kazakhstan.

Norway achieved No 1. Australia made fourth place, while the United States logged in at seventh, one spot higher than Canada. Japan scored nine and the United Kingdom ranked 13. The lowest 25 countries were in Africa, with Sierra Leone trailing last.

(Copyright 2003 Richard S Ehrlich.)
 
Jul 9, 2003



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