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Hints of change in
Myanmar
By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK - The coming weeks will show whether
new, though modest, signs of possible moves toward some
reform by the Myanmar military government will indeed
come to fruition.
Interviews with Myanmar
leaders, diplomats and analysts show that they are
closely following reports that Yangon is under increased
pressure from Southeast Asian governments to free
opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi before a regional
summit next month - and that new Prime Minister General
Khin Nyunt may take some new steps to restart the
dialogue with her.
The United Nations special
envoy Razali Ismail had been trying to visit Myanmar in
the next few weeks, but has been refused entry,
according to government sources. On Monday, he dropped
plans to go this time. Still, he tried to encourage
efforts toward a roadmap to reform in Myanmar, calling
on foreign governments to give Khin Nyunt, who spoke
about it at a press conference last month, "a chance to
try to get it done".
"We hope that this proposal
is the precursor, the beginning of a healing process
that will bring about the release of Aung San Suu Kyi
and other parties," he said. Khin Nyunt promised to
negotiate with Suu Kyi's party on stalled efforts to
draft a new constitution, and later hold free and fair
elections, but did not spell out what role there was for
Suu Kyi. There is also given growing speculation in
Yangon that the Myanmar government is planning to meet
directly with Suu Kyi.
"A meeting between Daw
Aung San Suu Kyi and Burma's military rulers was
scheduled," an Asian diplomat in Bangkok who regularly
deals with Myanmar said in an interview. "It was to be
with the members of the SPDC [State Peace and
Development Council, as the junta is called] and the
regional commanders," he said.
Diplomats in
Yangon believe there has already been a meeting several
weeks ago between Suu Kyi and a senior member of the
regime, probably Khin Nyunt.
The military
intelligence liaison officer General Than Thun has been
seeing the opposition leader regularly over the last two
months, according to Myanmar military sources.
"The question now is where will the national
reconciliation process go from here," a Yangon-based
Asian diplomat said in an interview. "Is Khin Nyunt
going to include Aung San Suu Kyi in the dialogue
process?"
Khin Nyunt in his newly appointed
capacity as prime minister obviously plans to reconvene
the National Convention, which was established more than
10 years ago to draw up a new constitution. It has not
met now for nearly five years since Suu Kyi and her
National League for Democracy (NLD) walked out in
protest at the lack of free debate and discussion within
the convention and its unrepresentative nature.
A new convening committee has been named and the
process of drafting a new constitution likely to restart
soon. It is all part of Khin Nyunt's seven-stage roadmap
to democracy. But unless the NLD is involved, the
national convention is likely to remain ineffectual.
In recent days, too, the Indonesian government,
host of the summit of the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations (ASEAN), called on Yangon to free Suu Kyi before
that gets under way.
Officially, Suu Kyi is
still being held in a secret location somewhere in
Yangon, and the government says it is for her own
protection. She was put under "protective custody" on
May 30, after a violent attack on her convoy blamed on
the Myanmar military junta.
Originally she was
incarcerated in the capital's notorious Insein prison.
She has since been moved from there, according to
Myanmar government officials. "We believe she is being
held in a State Guest House not far from her own
residence," said a senior Asian diplomat who asked not
to be named.
Observers in Yangon believe that
Suu Kyi's release will be a staged affair and that she
is likely to be moved to her home and put under house
arrest in the near future.
"It is likely to be a
return to the situation prior to her release last year,"
said a Yangon-based diplomat. "She'll be allowed to meet
some of the other senior NLD party leaders who are
currently under house arrest, but not diplomats," he
added.
The government has denied her access to
visitors except Razali and representatives of the
International Committee of the Red Cross, who saw her on
Saturday.
International concern about Suu Kyi
was complicated by allegations that the opposition
leader was on a hunger strike in protest against her
continued detention. Despite widespread skepticism, the
US State Department insisted that it knew better than
anyone.
The Myanmar government reacted angrily
and dismissed the US claims. When the Red Cross saw Suu
Kyi over the weekend for half an hour, it endorsed the
government's position that she was not on hunger strike.
Myanmar's military rulers smugly called the US
government "irresponsible".
It was a public
relations coup for Yangon and seemed to give weight to
its allegations of interference by the West. But it is
not going to affect the key issue in Myanmar's political
future what role Suu Kyi and her NLD will play in the
process of reform.
(Inter Press
Service)
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