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Bali plots its recovery ...
someday
By Gary LaMoshi
DENPASAR, Bali - The simplest statistic about
the economic impact of the terrorist bombings in Bali a
year ago this Sunday is that two McDonald's have closed.
That's not just an indicator of decimated tourist
arrivals.
In Bali, as elsewhere in emerging
Asia, McDonald's represents an upmarket indulgence for
aspiring local families. With the decimated tourism
industry directly or indirectly providing incomes to an
estimated 80 percent of families, Bali's residents are
cutting back on indulgences as well as necessities.
A United Nations Development Program survey
found earnings down, school enrollments down, and some
people even eating fewer meals in response to the
shrunken tourism. Temple activities for Bali's unique
brand of Hinduism also appear to have been trimmed, with
fewer ogoh-ogoh - giant papier mache demon
statues - in evidence for the most recent New Year
holiday than in past years (see Sounds of silence in Bali, April 2).
The gap
Statistics through August show
direct tourist arrivals in Bali have fallen by more than
a third compared with the previous year since the
October 12, 2002, bomb blasts. In the month immediately
after the bombings, 57 percent fewer tourists came
(31,497 arrivals versus 72,806 in November 2001).
Surprisingly, the arrivals gap hit a high of 60 percent
in May this year when severe acute respiratory syndrome
(SARS) was in the air (even though Bali remained
SARS-free).
Gaps narrowed to 34 percent for
June, then 24 percent for July, the first month of the
high season (111,828 this year vs 147,033 arrivals in
July 2002), then rose to nearly 27 percent for August
(117,600 this year vs an apparent record 160,420
arrivals in August 2002). Overall, 419,000 fewer
visitors have arrived in Bali since the bomb and, by
official estimates, tourist spending has fallen by more
than US$400 million.
Bad as those figures are,
they don't tell the whole story. More visitors from Asia
are among the arrivals, in place of tourists from Europe
and the United States. Asians tend to come for five days
on discount packages, while Westerners generally stay
longer. That means hotels, restaurants, tour operators,
and nightspots, as well as government's take from taxes,
are all suffering more than the arrival numbers and
official estimates indicate.
More troubling than
the disease is the apparent lack of an effective cure.
With politicians suffering from Bali fatigue, national
elections coming next year, and tougher visa
restrictions for tourists looming (see Indonesia rethinks tourism,
terrorism, September 19), things may get worse in
the months ahead.
Last month, a Pacific Asia
Travel Association (PATA) Bali Recovery Task Force
presented a recovery program to 120 Bali tourism
leaders. The session revealed just how little real
progress has been made to revive the main cog driving
Indonesia's $5 billion tourism industry and the
substantial roadblocks to recovery that remain.
Crisis management
The expert advice
given to Bali in the PATA report and the meeting include
lessons useful for any destination attempting to rebound
from a disaster or crisis. Consultant Bert van Walbeek,
a veteran of tourism-recovery programs after the 1990
Gulf War (for Sheraton's Middle East hotels and the
Egyptian government) and for the Tourism Authority of
Thailand after Bangkok's 1992 military coup, defines a
crisis as a situation "where you can't just say, 'Let's
forget the whole thing.'"
And, as every veteran
of the 1997 economic crisis in Asia knows, the Chinese
character for "crisis" combines "danger" with
"opportunity". Recovery means exploiting those
opportunities. For example, van Walbeek noted, "The name
'Bali' has been enhanced; a lot more people know about
Bali than did before the bomb."
Some Bali
tourism leaders see this month's foreign government
visitors to the island as an opportunity to point out
the absurdity of travel warnings still in effect for
Indonesia. In addition to Association of Southeast Asian
Nations heads of state, plus leaders of Japan,
China, South Korea and India, in Bali this week, US
President George W Bush plans a stop in Bali as part of
his trip to the Asia Pacific Economic
Cooperation summit in Bangkok, and Australian Prime
Minister John Howard is coming for October 12
commemorations this weekend, bringing hundreds of
Australian survivors and victims' relatives with him,
all on his government's tab.
However, van Walbeek
warned that complaining about travel warnings only
raises public awareness of them. What Bali really needs,
as detailed by the PATA task force, is a comprehensive
action plan for rebuilding it as a tourist destination.
Of the eight PATA recommendations, one focuses
on addressing security and safety concerns and another
on creating a crisis management plan. The other six
involve better coordination and cooperation between
various industry players that include airlines, local
and national government tourism and security agencies,
and trade groups.
Uncoordinated
Such
coordination remains elusive in Indonesia. In Egypt and
Thailand, van Walbeek recalled, government took the lead
in the recovery program. Egypt's tourism minister
provided a plane for a two-week whistle-stop tour of
European cities to bring their message directly to tour
packagers. Thailand's government provided promotional
campaign funding and incentives; in return, hotels
provided thousands of free room nights both for
incentives and for overseas travel agents. (Indonesia's
current $12.5 million tourism-promotion budget is a
fraction of the spending by rivals Thailand, Malaysia
and Singapore.)
At the PATA meeting, the leading
complaint from attendees was that, a year after the
bombings, no leadership has emerged to pilot the
recovery. "Bali's tourism industry is in desperate need
of clear thinking and leadership," Bali Tourism Board
chairman Putu Agus Antara declared in a speech delivered
on his behalf at the meeting (he was unable to attend
because of a conflicting engagement).
"Those in
positions to lead our industry have both the opportunity
and obligation to do whatever they can to improve our
current situation," said J M Daniels, president director
of www.balidiscovery.com and past chairman of the Bali
PATA chapter. "If they refuse to exercise those
responsibilities, we - the members of the industry -
must demand they lead."
The PATA report maps
where to lead, including a blueprint for taking the
island and the industry through the four phrases after a
disaster: recovery, rehabilitation, normalization, and
expansion. The detailed program includes public
relations, industry and government steps needed to
accomplish a turnaround from disaster.
According
to the PATA task force, the first steps should have been
taken as soon as the bomb smoke cleared on Jalan Legian.
With luck, maybe Bali will get started on its recovery
script by the time it's supposed to be wrapping up the
final phrase. Sadly, the work that should have begun in
the days immediately after the tragedy is every bit as
necessary a year later.
(Copyright 2003 Asia
Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
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