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Bush
makes peace to raise his ratings
By Alan Boyd
SYDNEY - When George W Bush embarks this week on the most extensive Asian tour
undertaken by any US president since the Indochina war, expect his electoral
campaign managers to have the biggest input.
Riven by policy squabbles, suspicion and whispers of hidden agendas, the US
administration's policy toward the region is drifting badly as the bunting is
unpacked for next year's presidential race.
Bush is desperately in need of some good press but will spend much of his visit
trying to rebuild confidence in the US after Washington's miscues over North
Korea and Iraqi reconstruction, the dollar-yen debate, and the much-vaunted
"second front" against terrorism.
The seven-day tour, which kicks off on Friday, is wrapped around next week's
Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Thailand. But the real focus
will be his stopovers in Japan, the Philippines, Singapore, Indonesia and
Australia.
In addition, en-route campaign fundraisers are planned in California and Hawaii
that are intended to plant the notion that Bush, unlike his predecessor Bill
Clinton, fully appreciates the strategic importance of the Asia-Pacific in US
foreign affairs.
But by definition, the pre-poll assessment will also illustrate how far the
administration still has to go toward realizing its objectives, three years
after the White House designated Asia as its chief area of strategic interest.
Unlike Clinton, Bush cannot be accused of lacking interest in this region. On
the contrary, his detractors say he has fired an ideological missile into Asia
by stigmatizing North Korea and China and raising the diplomatic heat.
"Foreign affairs simply did not register with Clinton's White House, and it was
not only Asia that suffered from a lack of recognition. [But] Clinton did
understand the cultural nuances a little better than Bush," an Asian diplomat
said. "What worries me about the Bush administration is that one is never sure
of the real agenda. Is Asia's long-term security the central issue here, or are
we being used as a template for some brand of domestic political struggle?"
Clinton took his blueprint toward Asia from a 1992 defense statement,
co-authored by current Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, that identified
a host of potential problems in the Taiwan Strait, but also retained a
traditional European focus. By the time Bush reached the White House in 2000,
Wolfowitz had narrowed the field to China, whose rapid economic ascendency was
by then viewed as a direct threat to US global influence.
Wolfowitz was never comfortable with Clinton's brand of liberalism, and it was
no surprise when Bush invited him to join a hawkish Pentagon clique that also
included his boss, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, and Under Secretary of
Defense Dov Zakheim. Secretary of State Colin Powell, who had openly advocated
a continuance of Clinton's low-key engagement policy with Asia in his
acceptance speech, was gradually sidelined, as the White House wielded the big
stick militarily and economically.
However, there are signs that Powell may be back in favor. Bush's failure to
consult Rumsfeld on recent policy changes in Iraq has convinced some analysts
that the president now recognizes that a softer touch may be needed to deal
with potential flash points such as the nuclear threat from North Korea. Powell
is to visit the region for security talks shortly after Bush, at a time when
the credibility of US diplomatic efforts is at a low ebb.
"The 'Sunshine Policy' was Clinton's acknowledgement that the Asian way of
avoiding confrontation can sometimes be more effective. Powell also recognized
this asset, but it did not sit comfortably with the Washington conservatives,
who like to deal from a position of strength," said another diplomat.
Devised by South Korea, the "Sunshine Policy" granted North Korea access to
peaceful nuclear technology in return for shelving its plans to produce weapons
of mass destruction. Pyongyang responded by allowing cross-border family
reunions, opening up to investment from the South, toning down its anti-Western
rhetoric and condemning the September 11, 2001, terrorism attacks in the United
States.
Even after being branded a rogue state in Bush's notorious 2002 "axis of evil"
State of the Union address, Pyongyang retained surprising composure by agreeing
to sign an anti-terrorism convention. Tensions on the Korean Peninsula had even
dropped to the point where Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi felt able
to make a groundbreaking visit to the North and began talks of normalizing
relations.
But Pyongyang was obviously stung by the lack of response from Washington.
Although North Korea has initialed as many anti-terrorism treaties as
Washington, it remains on the US list of pariah states, thus attracting
international notoriety and a raft of economic sanctions.
Conservatives found the justification they needed when Pyongyang admitted in
September last year that it was involved in a clandestine nuclear weapons
program and had already produced several bombs. At the Pentagon's urging, Bush
tightened the screws and withdrew all of Washington's concessions. North Korea,
which has never responded well to diplomatic pressure, scuttled the talks and
retreated back into its shell.
"We have an encirclement policy around China that has polarized its neighbors.
We have the breakdown of negotiations on the Korean Peninsula. And we have an
anti-terrorism strategy that is sputtering because of a climate of mistrust,"
said the Asian diplomat. "This isn't going to look good on the report sheet
come re-election time."
Japan, a trusted though reluctant ally, is likely to play a central role as
Bush strives to resurrect - and possibly redirect - his waning Asia policy by
cementing a coalition of the willing against terrorism. Tokyo is expected to
contribute US$1.5 billion toward the cost of rebuilding Iraq in 2004 and as
much as $5 billion within the next four years.
Furthermore, the Pentagon and the State Department are jockeying for position
on the deeper issue of security pacts, which could backfire badly if
mishandled. Rumsfeld wants Tokyo at the center of a collective multinational
alliance that would clearly be aimed at China; Powell is more aware of regional
sensitivities on a rearmed Japan.
Koizumi, who faces his own re-election battle soon, will be in no mood to
respond, especially as Washington has shown little inclination to bolster the
weak dollar before it damages Japanese exports. Some Asian diplomats believe
Koizumi will try to trade the Iraq aid package for a policy of exchange rate
intervention by the US Federal Reserve that might slow the yen's rapid
appreciation. They also believe Bush is unlikely to get his security coalition.
"There is a sense of needing mutual reassurance from the Tokyo visit. The big
question is whether conservative free traders will allow meddling with market
forces: I doubt it," said a European diplomat. "I think this will be the main
focus [of the visit], for it is a popularist election issue and American public
opinion is now shifting from security worries to the state of the economy."
In a similar vein, Bush is talking up trade issues rather than security with
China and has hinted at a softening of his security rhetoric as planning begins
for an official visit to Beijing within the next few months. Washington wants
China to make the yuan freely convertible so it will appreciate to a more
realistic level and stem the flood of Chinese imports into the United States.
Again, the presidential election looms large.
"Obviously there are domestic implications in any diplomatic issue. However, it
would be fair to say that the state of the economy is the overriding concern,
and cheap Chinese imports are an easy target," said the European diplomat.
Despite the recent state of affairs in US-Asia relations, there have been some
notable successes from US policies over the past three years. India and
Pakistan are back on speaking terms, even if the gulf over Kashmir is as wide
as ever. Southeast Asian states have moved to consolidate their security links
with the US loosely at the core. Shipments of military hardware to the
Philippines have resumed and Indonesia is exchanging intelligence data.
Economic sanctions have been imposed on Myanmar, forcing the region's most
appalling human-rights issue out into the open.
But these achievements will count for little by the time the presidential
election comes around late next year, with US public opinion already expecting
more from the administration's foreign policies.
A poll conducted on the eve of Bush's last Asian tour found that about 80
percent of voters thought he was doing a good job representing US interests
abroad. Only 60 percent thought so in the most recent surveys.
(Copyright 2003 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact
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