Malaysia: Survival of the fittest
By Anil Netto

KEPALA BATAS, Malaysia - Here in the rural northern Malaysian town of Kepala Batas, life goes on at a sedate pace despite the elevation to the pinnacle of power of one of its home-grown sons, Malaysia's new premier Abdullah Badawi. The little town center, with its rows of old shop-houses lining the few main streets, seems to have changed little from a few decades ago.

But on the outskirts of the town, there is evidence of the sweeping changes that have transformed the Malaysian landscape over the last couple of decades. The North-South Highway, sprawling housing development projects and even a golf resort club in neighboring Bertam have all cut into the paddy fields of this rustic, predominantly Malay area near the "rice-bowl" of Malaysia.

Close to the center of town stands Abdullah's family home where his 79-year-old mother lives - a large double-story wooden structure connected to a new concrete wing, with a Mercedes Benz parked outside. Workers are putting the finishing touches on an electric sliding gate at the entrance to the premises. Inside the fairly spacious yard, two camels are tied in the shade gazing curiously at the activity around them. "They are probably going to end up as soup for the kenduri [feast]," explains one of the workers helpfully. At a neighbor's house, an elderly Malay man is painting the stairs to the front door of the house, which sits on stilts, as the neighborhood gears up for Saturday's kenduri to welcome the new premier. "We are expecting a crowd of some 5,000 people," he says, in between deft strokes of his paintbrush.

Some of the structures and symbols leading to the old family home hint at the early influences in Abdullah's life and their enduring impact on his political fortunes.

Along the main road, about a hundred meters away from his home, is an impressive mosque complex. Abdullah, who has a degree in Islamic studies, is the first Malaysian premier with an Islamic scholarly background: both his grandfather and father were Islamic scholars. This will serve him well, as the new premier will have to deal with the rise of political Islam, embodied in the main opposition party, Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS). PAS controls two states, Kelantan and Terengganu, on the east coast of peninsular Malaysia, and analysts say the party could now pose a strong challenge in Kedah, the northern home state of outgoing premier Mahathir Mohamad, as well as in the central state of Pahang.

To counter PAS claims of moral decadence and corruption, Abdullah is expected to emphasize good governance and public morals and embark on an anti-corruption drive spearheaded by the Anti-Corruption Agency (ACA). But critics argue that corruption is too systemic - with politics and business so closely intertwined - to be wiped out without strong political will. Moreover, the ACA itself, which comes under the prime minister's department, is hardly seen as independent, and many doubt its ability to net the "big fish".

Just opposite the mosque in Kepala Batas stands the local divisional office of the ruling United Malays National Organization (UMNO). Abdullah's late father was a prominent independence era UMNO official, who has a town hall complex named after him in the nearby town of Butterworth.

The new 63-year-old premier will have to contend with the rise of factionalism and patronage within UMNO - a product of the Mahathir years and the economic boom he presided over. Now, following Mahathir's departure, is one of the rare occasions when second echelon UMNO leaders get the chance to move up the hierarchy. Stiff behind-the-scenes jostling can be expected, especially for the position of deputy premier, ahead of a looming general election expected to be held before the UMNO party elections due in mid-2004.

For Abdullah, the general election presents an opportunity to stamp his mark on UMNO and shake off lingering traces of Mahathir-ism through a selection of candidates who are more closely aligned to him. This would be important to boost his staying power; there are many who still regard him as a stop-gap premier who cannot last the distance.

Some analysts even feel that Abdullah might be challenged in the UMNO party elections next year. Abdullah's hopes of being formally elected as UMNO president would largely depend on how UMNO fares in the general election before the party poll. For now, apart from Mahathir's blessings and the cabinet's rubber-stamp, Abdullah lacks legitimacy in the sense that he was not even elected as deputy party president following the ouster and jailing of the former UMNO deputy president, Anwar Ibrahim.

Much will depend on how UMNO under Abdullah emerges from the general election. If UMNO loses further ground to PAS, especially in northern Malaysia, then Abdullah will be on shaky ground. As the reformasi movement following Anwar's sacking showed, UMNO was widely perceived to be out of touch with the grassroots, especially the young and the new middle-class ethnic Malays, who were disenchanted with the excesses of the Mahathir administration and its legacy of uneven urban-rural development, cronyism and corruption.

Many felt that UMNO had become a party of the elite where connections mattered when it came to dishing out patronage and contracts. Abdullah will have to reorient development projects to be more people-friendly and socially oriented if he is to win back grassroots support. He cannot afford the kind of prestige projects that Mahathir so fancied and which ultimately drained public coffers.

Behind the UMNO office in Kepala Batas, and just next to Abdullah's old family home stands a religious secondary school. Mahathir's move to stop funding Islamic religious schools is a political hot potato that the new premier will have to carry. Abdullah, a former education minister, will have to take a more pragmatic approach to such schools if he doesn't want to concede further ground to PAS. He will probably try to revamp the curriculum to include a greater focus on science and information technology - in other words, to counter claims that these schools are breeding grounds for potential extremists.

Around Kepala Batas, town banners have already sprouted, put up by the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA), one of UMNO's main partners in the ruling coalition. These banners proclaim: "MCA Kepala Batas fully supports the leadership of Abdullah Badawi."

The non-Muslims make up about 40 percent of the population and many have been enamored with Mahathir's calls for greater meritocracy and less emphasis on affirmative action, especially in education. As Malay support for UMNO fractured following reformasi, Mahathir increasingly relied on the support of the non-Malays, especially in north Borneo and in the mixed constituencies in urban and semi-urban areas on the peninsula. Many of these non-Malays are wary of the conservatism displayed by PAS and its goal of a strict Islamic state.

But Abdullah will have the tricky task of dealing with several long-staying presidents of component parties in the ruling coalition who are well past their sell-by dates. Among them are the presidents of the Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC) and the multi-ethnic but Chinese-based Gerakan party as well as the chief minister of the huge state of Sarawak, all of whom have held power for close to two decades. He will want to bring in fresh blood to his cabinet and replace some of the "dead wood".

Barely a 10 minute drive south of Kepala Batas on the North-South Highway lies another little rural town that was transformed in the 1990s with huge construction projects. It is Permatang Pauh, the hometown of Anwar Ibrahim and bastion of his party, Keadilan. Both Kepala Batas and Permatang Pauh are on mainland Penang, across from the island that is Malaysia's Silicon hub. Many Permatang Pauh residents will be mourning the fact that it is Abdullah, and not Anwar, who is now the first prime minister to come from Penang. Just as Abdullah will struggle to shake off Mahathir's shadow, he will desperately try to exorcise Anwar's "ghost" hovering over the party. Now serving a 15-year jail term, the jailed ex-deputy premier holds the key to UMNO's lost Malay ground.

Abdullah will also have the tough task of repairing Malaysia's damaged institutions. It wasn't by fluke that Mahathir so dominated the Malaysian scene. In the process of stamping his mark, the credibility of a string of institutions - the judiciary, parliament, the police, the Election Commission, the ACA - was eroded as power was centralized in the office of the prime minister. But it was Abdullah, who is also Home Affairs Minister, who allowed the clamping down on basic rights and freedoms. More than 90 alleged extremists continue to be detained without trial under the Internal Security Act and there is precious little freedom of the media.

If Abdullah wants to boost investor confidence in the face of stiff confidence from China and Vietnam, he will also need to clean up on corporate governance and transparency. That means no more cronyism and nepotism. All eyes will be on the old cronies who will try to gravitate to Abdullah as well as on the new premier's associates. Analysts will also be keeping a sharp eye on Abdullah's son, Kamaluddin bin Abdullah, an up-and-coming business tycoon.

Though some expect Abdullah to usher in a more liberal, elite consensus-driven era, few expect any substantive reforms to enhance basic rights, including the freedom to dissent. It would be a pity if Abdullah fails to respond to the Malay grassroots' demands for greater democracy, respect for human rights and cleaner governance in the post-reformasi era; he might find the ground slipping further away from UMNO and play into the hands of PAS. His battle for survival begins now.

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