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US edged out as China woos
Indonesia
By Keith Andrew Bettinger
WASHINGTON - The unilateralism and anti-terror
policies of the United States are increasingly damaging
its relations with the largest Muslim nation in the
world, Indonesia, where many view the "war on terror" as
anti-Islam. Meanwhile, China is quietly moving closer to
the archipelago.
Many observers have suggested
that Indonesia, as a moderate Muslim nation, could play
a greater role in US-led actions by providing
peacekeepers to operations associated with the "war on
terror", thereby adding legitimacy and decreasing the
casualties in situations such as postwar Iraq. However,
US policies are causing domestic difficulties for
moderate Muslim states. This, coupled with the rise of
China and improving relations between that country and
Indonesia, could be a harbinger of a new regional power
and an alternative to the US-led global order.
From an Indonesian perspective, China has always
posed the most serious threat to regional security. This
stems from the perception that Beijing supported the
failed coup by the Indonesian Communist Party in 1965,
an allegation it has always denied. When the Suharto
regime came to power, one of its first actions was to
sever relations with China. During this time Indonesia's
wealthy Chinese minority suffered attacks, scapegoating,
and an official persecution of its heritage, including
the outlawing of Chinese characters.
Although
the relationship has been bumpy since Indonesian
independence, the situation has improved since ties were
normalized in 1990. The 1999 election of president
Abdurrahman Wahid ushered in a new era of cooperation;
Wahid declared that Indonesia-China relations were a
priority and made China the destination for his first
official trip abroad. In 2000, a memorandum of
understanding was signed in the fields of politics,
economics, science and tourism, and in 2001 Indonesia
became an officially sanctioned tourist destination for
Chinese vacationers. The current Indonesian president,
Megawati Sukarnoputri, has furthered the relationship,
pledging to improve military links with Russia and
China.
China seems to be employing a coherent
strategy to improve ties with Indonesia. In the past,
China suffered from a lack of vision in its relations
with neighbors. This is in part due to its ambiguous
position during the Cold War. It is also owing to the
inward focus that China had for so long. Yang Jinn,
counselor for the political section of the Chinese
embassy in Washington, says relations between the two
nations were rough in the beginning because China's
foreign policy was driven by ideological considerations.
However, Deng Xiaoping brought about a new pragmatism in
1979. Since the 1980s China has focused on more ad hoc,
symbiotic relations. Now, "China seeks multi-layered and
multifaceted relations with its neighbors", Jinn said.
"The priority concern for the Chinese government is
economic development for our people, so we need a stable
environment and good neighborly relations and
partnerships."
Thus far, Indonesia's interest in
China has been limited to trade and economic issues.
Indonesia has been reluctant to take initiatives outside
the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
However, trade between the two nations has grown
sharply, quadrupling from US$2 billion in 1992 to $8
billion a decade later.
There is still room for
growth, though, and both nations have something to bring
to the table that makes them natural partners. With a
dynamic, growing economy, China expects its energy needs
to increase dramatically in the future. Indonesia's
massive reserves of liquefied natural gas in West Papua
could help supply China's increasing needs. Indonesia
has won some supply contracts, but lost a massive tender
to Australia in 2001 and is looking for more business
with China.
On the other hand, China's
businesses are looking outward for investment
opportunities, following the advice of former president
Jiang Zemin to "go out". Deals have already been reached
between Chinese and Indonesian firms in the fields of
telecommunications and electric-power plants. Although
Western investors have known for years that Indonesia
has enormous growth potential, lack of infrastructure
has hampered foreign direct investment.
The
deals with China bring with them huge investments in
infrastructure, which should improve Jakarta's prospects
for the future. The Indonesian government, severely
short of cash, is beginning to push this sort of private
investment in infrastructure. Chinese operators have an
advantage over their Western counterparts in that they
have experience in the creation of telecom networks
under developing-country constraints.
These
increasing economic ties will inevitably lead to a
greater political understanding between the two nations,
decreasing regional suspicion of China and increasing
its latitude in endeavors abroad. According to Marvin
Ott of the National War College, "China's natural
strategic ambition is to look south to a region of
opportunity." Ott called China's approach to Indonesia
over the past five years "a thing of beauty".
All of this means that the US stands to lose its
influence in the region. "Since Vietnam, Southeast Asia
has been off the map for the US strategic community,"
Ott said. Whereas the US has traditionally focused on
global-oriented strategies, beginning with containment
during the Cold War and now the "war on terror", China's
ad hoc approach holds more appeal to many nations. In
contrast to the apparent US view of developing nations
as pawns in a geopolitical chess match, China's approach
has economic benefits that a shaky government can take
to its people.
In addition, there is a certain
degree of political quid pro quo in bilateral relations.
Jinn says China supports Indonesia's efforts to
safeguard its sovereignty, as well as its campaign
against "internal terror". This is very significant to
Indonesia, which faces separatist challenges from Aceh
and West Papua. In return, Indonesia has always held a
"one China" policy, and in 2001 refused a request for an
official visit by Taiwan's head of state. "Our
integration is only starting," Jinn said.
China's status as a developing nation is an
advantage in its relations with nations such as
Indonesia, because China's level of development is on
par with nations in ASEAN, making it easier to identify
areas of potential partnership.
US policy, on
the other hand, seems to be moving in the opposite
direction. Washington has called for Beijing to revalue
its currency to alleviate its trade deficit with China.
This stance is drawing flak from ASEAN nations,
including Indonesia, whose trade surpluses with China
would be damaged by a stronger yuan. The US has been
criticized for not doing enough for developing
countries, creating a vacuum that China will eventually
fill.
China is also seen to be more
accommodating than the US. This is especially apparent
in the area of human rights. Whereas Washington is
especially vigilant on issues such as labor standards
and human trafficking, China hasn't signed on to any
international human rights protocols or agreements.
While it is US law to issue annual reports on the
progress of other nations, and Washington routinely
threatens sanctions for perceived offenders, China has
more of a "don't ask, don't tell" approach.
Lanxin Xiang, Henry Kissinger professor for
international relations at the Library of Congress, says
China's relations are guided by a philosophy of mutual
prosperity, "get rich together" cooperation in which a
rising tide lifts all boats, rather than a zero-sum game
realpolitik perspective. The US has made
Southeast Asia a second front in the "war on terror",
and President George W Bush recently declared that
nations not sharing the US commitment to democracy are
no longer friends. China understands that Indonesia and
ASEAN pose no strategic threat, and is seeking to build
bridges regardless of political philosophies.
"The US should 'de-mustify' its relations with
other countries," said James Castle, an American who has
been doing business in Indonesia for years and is widely
regarded as an expert on the Indonesian economy. "Other
countries get tired of hearing the US say 'You must
deregulate'. China doesn't say those things."
Castle also suggested that Western firms are
starting to lose out on deals in Asia because they are
bogged down by their dependence on contracts and rules.
Asian firms, he said, are more flexible and are not
crippled by a lack of clarity inherent in some business
deals. They are more willing to accept risk. Castle said
that Indonesia's slow pace of reform scares off many US
businesses, whereas more nimble firms from China and
Japan are winning big. "US business will be sidelined
for the next five years in Indonesia."
What
happens in the future remains to be seen. Indonesia has
elections coming up in 2004, and China has a new
president, Hu Jintao. However, some things are certain.
China wants to be a great power, and seems to be seeking
a sphere of influence in Southeast Asia. It needs
resources, markets and partners. Its externally oriented
policy will continue to put it into conflict with US
strategic interests, which will continue to stress
security and "Western values", causing backlashes within
developing nations.
In pursuing better relations
with its neighbors, China has placed itself in a good
position vis-a-vis the US. It has a more active
diplomacy, and is reinventing itself as an alternative
to the US. China is becoming the nation of
multilateralism. It is taking a greater role in the
United Nations, and is sponsoring regional initiatives
such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and
ASEAN+3. It advocates cooperative solutions to problems
such as the North Korean nuclear crisis.
China
wants to open economies for mutual benefit with other
nations. In an age where wealthy nations are constantly
criticized for unfair trading practices and closing
their markets, China is an alternative. Whereas Western
nations such as the US often link economic concessions
to political conditions, China has no such conditions.
Indonesia, with its massive population and clear
challenges, will have to make a several choices. Will
the future bring increasing cooperation with the US,
which entails domestic unrest over US policies in the
Middle East, or will Indonesia instead focus on economic
development, seeking partnerships with nations that can
improve the living standards of its people. Will
Indonesia seek to counterbalance China, or rather join
the camp of the giant to the north?
While the US
seems content to pursue policies that alienate its
allies, China is seeking to cultivate new friendships.
It is perhaps indicative of the new China that in its
recent foray into space, its first astronaut carried
with him two flags: one the familiar red and yellow
national banner, the other the blue and white of the
United Nations.
Keith Andrew Bettinger
has a master's degree in international affairs from
George Washington Universtiy with concentration in Asian
studies.
(Copyright 2003 Asia Times Online
Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for
information on our sales and syndication policies.)
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